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China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby yesplease » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 13:29:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olle', 'O')ops, that was impressive, but it also means that you need a 3-phase plug in your home. Not a major problem if you have a Villa
Really? 25A on one of the 220V outlets for eight hours is pretty much a full pack for me.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Postby americandream » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 14:30:42

Blimmin poms :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')rying to convey irony in an international website seems rather pointless, dunnit guv'nor. I go down my local for a pint of irony, I come here to be informed, mate.
.



but you still couldn't resist responding could you? :P[/quote]
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby mos6507 » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 15:15:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')how is $4/gallon a watershed moment but $3/gallon cheap? When it was under $2/gallon, sure, that was cheap, but if $4/gallon is a watershed moment, isn't $3/gallon at least on the expensive side?


I think it has to do with what was going on with the rest of the economy when gas was $4. So people associate $4 gas (or $147/bbl oil) with the economy unraveling at the seams, whether there is a 100% causative effect or not. It seems to me that $3 will not cause the economy to tank (at least not anymore than it is now) and for all I know, $4 won't either. But psychologically people feel that it will.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby Pops » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 17:59:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o if a typical jolt of electricity at the dryer outlet delivers +/- 40% of the energy embodied in the primary fuel, I wonder what the final efficiency of a plug in car works out to?
About the same as a hybrid, provided the energy source is FF based. Course, we could have a windmill in ND charging a car in LA, or whatever, so it opens up a whole lot of options in terms of fuel.
That would be cool.

Here is a study that I think says electric vehicles use less fossil fuel unless fossil fuel is used to generate electricity.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby americandream » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 18:14:19

I wonder what the fossil fuel efficiency will be for a world order transitioning from a Western dominated infrastructure of one billion internal combustion vehicles into a global infrastructure of six billion EV's sold through your local Walmart, K-Mart, Safeway, Warehouse and other assorted superstores worldwide. Want to buy the American Dream anyone?

Useful link for those who have yet to grasp the full portent of China's capitalism:

http://walmartwatch.com/blog/archives/w ... pitalists/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o if a typical jolt of electricity at the dryer outlet delivers +/- 40% of the energy embodied in the primary fuel, I wonder what the final efficiency of a plug in car works out to?
About the same as a hybrid, provided the energy source is FF based. Course, we could have a windmill in ND charging a car in LA, or whatever, so it opens up a whole lot of options in terms of fuel.
That would be cool.

Here is a study that I think says electric vehicles use less fossil fuel unless fossil fuel is used to generate electricity.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby yesplease » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 19:04:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')url=http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/559.pdf]Here is a study[/url] that I think says electric vehicles use less fossil fuel unless fossil fuel is used to generate electricity.
Be careful about mixing FF use and GHG emissions. They are only identical if we're using the same fuel. If we're comparing fuels, and have the the difference in GHG emissions, in order to get the difference in energy consumption we need to multiply by the ratio of Carbon emissions intensity. For example, no matter what, there's an advantage in terms of energy consumption when comparing EVs and hybrids, but that drops as FFs become a greater part of the generating mix. Otoh, because coal has a good 33% more Carbon per unit energy, EVs may have greater GHG emissions than hybrids in coal heavy markets.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reduction in total energy consumption in CD relative to CS operation progressively diminishes as the electricity generation mix changes from the California to the U.S. and Illinois mixes, respectively. Furthermore, the WTW GHG emissions advantage of CD over CS operation disappears by moving from the California to the U.S. generation mix, and it is even reversed by moving to the Illinois marginal generation mix, thus surrendering the potential GHG emissions benefit of PHEVs (except for the case of hydrogen when produced via electrolysis).
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Postby kjmclark » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 21:43:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'I') could sue you for publicly bullying someone with dicksleckseer
I'd have to counter sue for going after someone who's terminally humor-impaired today. :oops:
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby Pops » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 21:49:08

Somewhere when I was looking for that paper from Argone I saw congress was trying to find a way to come up with mileage for PEVs, sort of like the rating on electric appliances.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby yesplease » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 22:26:22

There're all sorts of ideas kicking around about how they should be rated. I think anything that's effectively a hybrid (e-rev my ass) should just have the mpg posted like a normal car, and anything that can do all electric should also have the wh/mile figures included for city/highway w/ range estimated from pack size. A pure EV would have something like 150Wh/mile city, 250Wh/mile highway, and 190Wh/mile combined or whatever, w/ the city/highway/combined range based on the pack size, and a PHEV like the volt would have that plus it's hybrid mileage in the same format we use now.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby energyhoggin » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 22:10:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olle', 'O')ops, that was impressive, but it also means that you need a 3-phase plug in your home. Not a major problem if you have a Villa
Really? 25A on one of the 220V outlets for eight hours is pretty much a full pack for me.


I saw something on tv about charging problems and time involved, one scientist came up with an idea and stated that you could pickup a freshly charged battery or battery pack at your local charging station and exchange it with your dead battery, sort of like a fillup...
Fact: There will be a limit to growth
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby JustaGirl » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 20:20:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyhoggin', '
')
I saw something on tv about charging problems and time involved, one scientist came up with an idea and stated that you could pickup a freshly charged battery or battery pack at your local charging station and exchange it with your dead battery, sort of like a fillup...



Better Place is already working towards that...

http://www.betterplace.com/solution/charging/
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby JustaGirl » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 20:22:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('janeword', 'S')orry folks, but electricity requires oil, gas, or coal to generate. We aren't getting near enough from wind, solar, or any other renewable. Just because the power points in your house are almost invisible doesn't mean there isn't fuel burning at the generator.
Jane in Kentucky



So the 20% the US gets from nuclear is just make believe??
Only those who can see the invisible can do the impossible.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby Gerben » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 12:21:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('janeword', 'S')orry folks, but electricity requires oil, gas, or coal to generate. We aren't getting near enough from wind, solar, or any other renewable. Just because the power points in your house are almost invisible doesn't mean there isn't fuel burning at the generator.
Jane in Kentucky



So the 20% the US gets from nuclear is just make believe??

No it's just 20%.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby Jonathan_Hoag » Thu 07 Jan 2010, 11:16:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Guess what, an empty gas tank is essentially $0 a mile to purchase (whatever the cost of the sheet metal is), vs. the cost of the battery pack, and that's what counts the most.


What you are forgetting is that an electric car is a lot simpler than a gasoline car. The gas tank itself may be 0 cents/mile but fuel pump, fuel filter, emission control system (oxygen sensor, catalytic converter etc.), fuel injectors etc. are not. You have to replace your battery but you save on all these parts you don't have to replace. You don't even have to get oil changes as a cool electric motor can stay properly lubricated a long time!
Not to mention that electricity is a lot cheaper than gasoline.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby mcgowanjm » Thu 07 Jan 2010, 12:00:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Guess what, an empty gas tank is essentially $0 a mile to purchase (whatever the cost of the sheet metal is), vs. the cost of the battery pack, and that's what counts the most.


What you are forgetting is that an electric car is a lot simpler than a gasoline car. The gas tank itself may be 0 cents/mile but fuel pump, fuel filter, emission control system (oxygen sensor, catalytic converter etc.), fuel injectors etc. are not. You have to replace your battery but you save on all these parts you don't have to replace. You don't even have to get oil changes as a cool electric motor can stay properly lubricated a long time!
Not to mention that electricity is a lot cheaper than gasoline.


The problem is the Power Grid can't possibly handle the load
and the entire transport industry has to be retrofitted.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby yesplease » Fri 08 Jan 2010, 01:14:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')he problem is the Power Grid can't possibly handle the load and the entire transport industry has to be retrofitted.
In the near term the grid can probably handle a significant number of PHEVs w/o upgrades, and if they prove to be a success then we still have decades to make additions/upgrades.

Course, w/ oil prices where they are, I don't think most people would consider pure EVs, especially w/ $15k 60+mpg compact hybrids on the horizon. That said, mass production could drive down costs to or below that of conventional vehicles, so there probably a small market for them that will increase as economies of scale lower EV costs and higher oil prices drive up FF powered costs.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 08 Jan 2010, 06:18:05

So what is a progress with this new Chinese EV model?
Where it is coming to market?
Any concrete news or just a hot air?

Seems to be Western money driven investor scam:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10315928-54.html
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby yesplease » Fri 08 Jan 2010, 16:02:47

It's probably going to be the same as all the other EVs. Build a few for testing, and if demand looks good, either due to people wanting them or oil prices going up, build more. Otherwise, shelve it for now. Everyone's hopping on the EV bandwagon in terms of small runs for fleet testing because they don't want to get locked out of the tech by someone. Toyota was way ahead of the curve w/ hybrid patents and now everyone either has to license their own stuff w/ Toyota (Ford/Nissan), or build hybrids that get relatively poor mileage (Honda, probably GM).
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby jaman9 » Thu 14 Jan 2010, 09:22:47

Yeah, nice try, comparing 1800's trains with modern cars? why don't you do it all the way around: 1900-1910 cars vs the top of the line bullet train?
The fact is, if you were to compare both transports at their full potential (e.g. full train vs. equivalent number of cars, eg ~about 1000 cars vs 1 train) the cars would be by far much more polluting and less efficient on the fuel side.










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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Postby JRP3 » Sun 28 Feb 2010, 00:02:57

Some EV info:
Tesla Roadster 53 kwh pack, 900 lbs. 240 mile range, has gone over 300 miles driven slowly. 230 volt 50 amp plug can recharge the entire pack in less than 5 hours.
Solectria Sunrise went over 300 miles 15 years ago with NiMH batteries. Could do even better today with Lithium.
A123 and Altairnano cells can take much higher rate charging than that.
My 11.5 kwh pack cost me $4300 including shipping from China. Think large manufacturers might get a better price than that? I'd bet actual cost is half that.
Slow driving drawing 200 wh/mi could get me 50 miles of range or so, considering efficiency losses.
Normal driving drawing 300 wh/mi should get me 35 miles.
The grid here is a good mix of hydro, natural gas, coal, and wind.
Plenty of studies have shown plenty of nighttime charging capacity available right now.
Refining one gallon of gas takes about 5 kw of electricity, so every gallon you don't burn frees up that much electrical capacity.
Nissan Leaf should be going on sale end of this year, full EV, 100 mile range, probably around $30K
Swapping battery packs will be costly, and unnecessary, and Better Place will likely fail, as it should, since it offers no real value.
Batteries that can fast charge already exist, they can last thousands of cycles, they are constantly improving every year, and they are getting cheaper every year. In a properly designed, lightweight, aerodynamic vehicle they can provide over 200 miles of range.
If the economy doesn't completely tank there is a good opportunity for low cost EV's to take over a large portion of transportation needs.
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