[dissident]

Perhaps the North Sea fields have long tail distributions, but then there are giant fields like Yibal and Cantarell that apparently don't. So I would not take too much comfort from the pattern from the "Forties" field and suspect that Ghawar will be more like Yibal.

[rockdoc123]

I attended a presentation with Pemex officials and a representative of the ministry not too long ago. They all realize that the oil industry in Mexico is going to hell in a hand basket rapidly, unfortunately they are limited by the legislation in Mexico regarding foreign ownership of oil. Pemex can only do so much, they need foreign help. Unfortunately with the current system of service contracts and absolutely no foreign ownership of oil possible they have effectively damaged their ability to attract the foreign investment they need. Iraq went with a diffucult model but they were talking about access to billions of barrels of proven discovery and the foreign companies could still take credit for lifting barrels (very imporant on your 10K).
So a very diffucult position for Mexico, on the one hand they have to honor the desire of the Mexican people to keep out foreigners from their oil and gas business but on the other hand without that infusion of investment they are facing a funding crisis. At one point I suppose someone will ask the question "Pride is important, but is it putting food in my children's mouths?".
There is without doubt still good oil and gas prospectivity in Mexico....the challenge for our latino neighbours will be how they can get access to it. The phrase "other peoples money" comes to mind, but that's just mho.

[crude_intentions]

Amazing how the only thing we here about mexico in the media these days has to do with drug violence.
I wonder if it's possible for anyone with the skills to graph the increase in drug violence with the decline in cantarell production. Might make an interesting correlation.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'P')erhaps the North Sea fields have long tail distributions, but then there are giant fields like Yibal and Cantarell that apparently don't. So I would not take too much comfort from the pattern from the "Forties" field and suspect that Ghawar will be more like Yibal.

[lonewolf]

In 2008, the total of all oil 'production' in Mexico was claimed to be 2.727 Mbpd with 1.195 (44%) of that coming from the Cantarell fields.

In 2008, the total (claimed) domestic oil consumption in Mexico was 2.078 Mbpd (and wholly unchanged for the prior 4 years running!?)

IF we now assume that all non-Cantarell fields in Mexico continue to yield at the 'full-out' 2008 rates, but factor that Cantarell is currently yielding at 0.550 Mbpd (Dec 09), then the total Mexican production (end of 2009) would be at the rate of 2.082 Mbpd (and falling rapidly). If (since) Mexican domestic consumption 'officially' remains at 2.078 Mbpd, then Mexico currently has NO further capacity to continue exporting petroleum to the US (if they are to meet domestic demand). NONE- as in zilch point sh*t over infinity.

According to search results found (multiple), US imports of oil from Mexico have been 15% of total US consumption in 2001, 13.5% in 2002, 11.4% in 2007 and 10.3% in 2008.

What happens (here) when Mexico wakes up to their 'new' reality and 10% of current US oil supply suddenly disappears as Mexico is forced to halt oil exports. Can you say "$10/gallon"? Or, "Second Mexican-American War"? Mexico is said to be the 5th largest oil producer on the planet (or was) and the (current - yet former) 2nd largest importer to the US after Canada. When the world sees that the 5th largest producer can't even meet their own domestic consumption, global oil prices will triple (or more) 'over night' (IMO). How many other former exporters are now net importers? (too many to sustain).

So, will Mexico be the proverbial canary in the collapsing petroleum mine? How many of the current exporters will suddenly see the writing on the wall and begin to horde (and/or extort vast sums for) their ever depleting supplies? Could Mexico's ex-exporter status be the trigger for an avalanche of ex-exporters that ends up burying civilization as we knew it? I, for one, certainly "hope" so. We "malevolent misery monkeys" just got to go. Let the Die-Off commence. Got popcorn?

[Ayoob]

100% of peak

One halving time later... 50% of peak

One more halving time... 25% of peak

What I find interesting about the whole thing is that in the first halving time, you lose as much production as you will for the entire rest of the productive life of the well. If it was a million barrels a day at 100%, it's 500K barrels at the end of the first halving. There's only one more half to go! You lose it all right up front. After that, the trickle slows a little, but it's not as much. From 500K it's down to 250K... you only lose half of what you lost in the first halving time.

Granted, there's less slack in the system to be taken up after the first halving, but you see what I mean.

The big suckerpunch comes right up front.

My guess is that by the end of the 2nd halving time, there might as well be zero oil for most of the people who use the stuff today. By that I mean Americans. We'll have the farthest to fall. Our entire infrastructure is built on the assumption of cheap and available oil. Take that away, the freeways empty out, and a lone BMW 750IL zooms along at 120MPH on an empty highway, with a million dusty Kias and Mercedes 300D veggie-oil conversions rusting away on the side of the road. Maybe it'll be a hummer, or a sportbike... it won't matter. There just won't be that many people bothering with the freeways, gas will be unavailable for the most part and unaffordable for any productive use if it could be gotten.

Cantarell = future.

The vehicle of the future is the bicycle. Get used to it.

[TheDude]

Mexican imports as a percentage of US total:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '2000 14.47%
2001 14.94%
2002 16.41%
2003 16.23%
2004 15.84%
2005 15.37%
2006 15.59%
2007 14.05%
2008 12.13%
')

2009 average up to October was 11.4%. US imports have been in decline since late '05 for ultimate peak, or '06 by average. We are taking up the slack with declines from Venezuela and Mexico by importing more from Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, etc. I'd expect Mexico to have destabilized from the revenue loss by now if such was in the immediate offing. Energy Bulletin printed a very interesting article on the socioeconomic impacts of Cantarell’s decline.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut, the specter of Mexico’s emerging public spending crisis looms on the horizon. Reality is quickly setting in. Second quarter profits dropped 56% this year over the same period in 2007. This decline in revenues has forced Mexican President Felipe Calderón to call for “an urgent reduction in public spending to reduce the enormous dependence on oil revenue.”

[lonewolf]

Assume, for 2010:
1. Mexico does not completely implode, such that domestic demand remains intact.
2. Non-Cantarell fields produce at 2008/2009 levels.
3. Cantarell output continues to decline (currently in near free-fall)
Then, in 2010:
1. Mexico has NO oil for export to anyone - NONE.
2. The US 'looses' access to between 10 and 15% of 'our' current oil supply.
3. The US either exports vastly more from other remaining exporters or experiences a significant energy 'shock' (or both)

If (when) US supply goes down by 10%, expect to see price at pump triple or more (even absent continuing refinery shenanigans).
The US will attempt to increase imports from other current exporters. But which ones will sell to us and at what price and for how much longer?
Other current exporters will witness what happened in/to Mexico and totally rethink their export strategies (if they are rational).

But, why (i ask myself) do I persist in wasting my effort/time posting anything about oil constraints/depletion here?

Once Upon a Time, PeakOil.com was a website, which was (virtually exclusively) about Peak Oil and the impacts of supply constraint.
Now, it has (dominantly) morphed into a shrill troll festival for self-obsessed wantonly delusional raving-lunatics with obvious personal and/or corporate agendas to peddle.

This is not mere personal conjecture or a hypothesis, but a well-established fact.
Just look at how many threads over the past year have ANYthing whatsoever to do with oil depletion vs those that do not (rough estimate, 1:100).
I'd guess that for every oil-related thread here, there are 'well' over 10 militant con-jobs attacking the mere premise of ACC/AGW (alone) with their fear-based willful ignorance (for but one example). If not for OF2 and SoS, there'd have been virtually NO oil related news/discussion here over the past year or more (not that I personally 'appreciate' either invested Corno's limited self-serving perspective).

To test whether or not there remains serious/significant interest here in the subject of (accelerating) oil depletion, I posted this thread on the giant Cantarell field falling to 25% of peak output in Dec 2009, which is also the point in time (aka NOW) that Mexico can no longer export ANY oil production whatsoever and still meet their domestic demand. (TMK, no one else here had noticed this landmark recent development, which I could have easily keep to myself BTW). Now, a rational person would 'think' that when the 5th largest producer of petroleum (by volume) on the planet and the second largest supplier to the US. literally 'achieves' a zero export capacity that such 'news' would evoke considerable interest, concern, feedback, much wailing and gnashing of teeth, and inevitable displays of deluded denialisto dementia. Well ... alas, Not so !

So what is there for a lonewolf to conclude? That no one here 'thinks' that Mexico's (former) exports are meaningful? Or, no one 'thinks' at all? Or, that PeakOilers are no longer concerned about /interested in depletion or supply constraints? Or, that the faithful denialist whackos have completely taken-over and effectively, permanently highjacked this entire forum and/or successfully drove away those that are seriously interested in oil depletion?

TMK, climate change denialists have many websites at which their chosen delusions are most welcome. Likewise with gardeners (permaculturalists), survivalists (militants), conspiracy theorists of every sort, ETC. Why do they have to come here (y'all know who you are, I don't need to name names) and deliberately pollute this place with their fear-based militant ignorance too? Much less be welcomed here? This is "Peak Oil", morons. Not your personal kindergarden for fighting over who gets the last piece of imaginary candy.

I seriously 'have to wonder' just why it is I continue to scan this site - at all - for oil-related news and information. Such input basically no longer exists here. And on the rare occasion that such does show-up, it is largely ignored - as in basically never happened. If (when) 'hard information' isn't ignored outright, then it is deliberately attacked, ridiculed and denied by the resident buffoons and corporate trolls. And this passes as astute observation and informed discussion? I 'think' not. Cognitive dissonance has achieved lethal status of pandemic proportion even amongst the alleged Peak-Oil 'faithful'.

This concludes this test of the emergency warning broadcast system. If this had been an actual emergency, you would have been directed to your local FEMA camp and/or instructed to bend over and spread 'em wide. Have a nice Die-off.

[PS: I did let the door hit me on the way out]

[lonewolf]

it was NOTHING ... really!

[Homesteader]

No, it was a good rant. Trust me, I read and appreciated your posts about the decline.

For me, since I'm not in the industry and therefore don't have the experience to add much to the discussion there isn't much left to be said about it. How can the import of those numbers be denied? The cake is baked.

[davep]

IIRC from reading the 2008 IEA report, the old super giants such as Ghawar are depleting far more slowly than the more recent discoveries.

[lonewolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')The obvious connotations of peak oil have persuaded many posters here that personal action is more important than more internet gab.

[lonewolf]

dupe

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lonewolf', 'O')nce Upon a Time, PeakOil.com was a website, which was (virtually exclusively) about Peak Oil and the impacts of supply constraint.
Now, it has (dominantly) morphed into a shrill troll festival for self-obsessed wantonly delusional raving-lunatics with obvious personal and/or corporate agendas to peddle.

[lonewolf]

As to "which one" you are, that is for you to determine.
=========

Not "my numbers" - rather from multiple allegedly informed sources - including (not limited to) http://www.energybulletin.net/node/41707
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=73581
http://www.post1.net/lowem/entry/mexico ... in_7_years
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/01 ... ntare.html

However, regardless of which 'number set' one happens to chose/believe, the trend line is clear, accelerating and the end is nigh.

But you can 'prove' me wrong by 'kindly' showing us in 'official' terms where Mexico can continue to export a Mbpd to anyone and still meet domestic demand - if you can.

[lonewolf]

dupe (damn it)

[TheDude]

Did I say they could? No. Whether this automatically equates to the country Balkanizing is wholly conjecture. Maybe they will funnel revenue from other sectors into continued purchases of refined product, particularly seeking discounts from US refiners who are eager to get whatever they can out of spreads at the moment. Perhaps an era of fuel rationing will soften up the Mexican populace to the idea of allowing foreign participation in their domestic E&P.

Mexico has to import product, by the way - they lack the refining capacity to wholly meet domestic demand. The US is offsetting the Mexican decline with other sources; these have longer supply lines but otherwise replace the loss neatly enough. Indeed Bonny Light from Nigeria is a better grade of oil than Maya etc.

[AirlinePilot]

I think another thing you are going to see is even with a rapidly declining production picture in Mexico, they will withhold oil from the populace. I think the Mexican Government is plenty corrupt enough to do this for quite some time before you see the results here. They will do this to artificially prop up the export picture but it will not be sustainable.

By the way lonewulf, I do appreciate your efforts at warning. Ive been saying for quite some time now to folks who might listen that Mexico is an important case to watch.