by Laromi » Sat 15 Jun 2013, 07:40:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrGray', 'I') agree we may be in for quite a wild summer for arctic ice. I'm expecting a big drop off in extent and area in July. But hyperbole is fodder for some idiots to poke holes in predictions. This is not it. Whatever 'it' is.
Dr.Gray
[quote]But hyperbole is fodder for some idiots to poke holes in predictions.[quote]
One can only “poke” holes in things that are not sound, that is, things based in fact not models. Anything based on best guessing is still guessing, not fact, and therefore is open to argument or debate by idiots or else-wise. The future is never a done deal!
Predictions are based in historical events, geological artifacts indicate past events of undulating temperatures to the extreme that’s true, it’s a fact.
Models are assumptions usually based on fact; that we were heading into an ice age in the 1970’s was a “fact” based on scientific modeling, and in 2013 (or the late 1980’s) that we are heading into a global fry-up predictions is a “fact”, again, based on scientific modeling.
To extend the argument of natural planetary warming or cooling based on geological interpretation of past events are treated as non events, hoaxes if you like, by some scientific bodies; for an analogy and currencies in argument see, LENR. However, there are Eons of elapsed time that geologically, stand witness to past global warming and cooling events.
That anthropological warming as the sole cause of warming is not elucidated properly in public papers, nor is the fact of naturally occurring global warming episodes adequately addressed, over which, historically, mankind has had no control, and probably never will have.
Physics of the homosphere and heterosphere explains solar, and most (known) space or galactic energies that are likely to adversely affect the earth. Can we control them, short answer is no, however, can we can control manmade emissions? The obvious answer is yes, but to what extent do these emissions in conjunction with naturally occurring emissions (earth core events, gravitational flexing, volcano’s, forest fires and etc.) need to be controlled to produce a measurable effect when it is not definitively known to what extent “natural” global warming process alone will have on the planet?
Are we only going to cool the planet down to assist in precipitating an Ice-Age? Like the one we were going to have in the 70’s for instance. I believe to reason that if we can cool the planet down to avoid a fry-up, we can warm the planet up to prevent an imminent Ice-Age, what say you Dr. Gray?
Pointing to modeling as the answer is a fancy way of saying I think so. Predicting an event, such as; based on what the horse ate, its fitness level, the jockey etc. is no guarantee it will win. Those factors may be a good indication it will run a place, but even that is a gamble. So, what’s the bet are we heading for an Ice-Age, or the deep fryer?
Being complacent about AGW is not the right step, nor is scaring the population about end of the world predictions, forever there will be arguments about the value of pure white, but that is of perception, not necessarily scientific evaluation alone, as is AGW.