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PeakOil is You

Commercial loan time bomb starting to hit

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: A Commercial Real Estate Story....

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 16 Apr 2009, 11:30:16

+1

Good bye Wally World.......... :twisted:
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Re: A Commercial Real Estate Story....

Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Apr 2009, 11:52:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')This is why we are failing as a system We are a society that rewards the bullshitters, the most aggressive unethical bastards who will crush a competitor any way possible --self-promotion, lies, and ass-kissing. Just look at the media and what has crawled to the top. Look at that asswipe from GE.
.


So true. One client has had one of these self-promoting bastards running their operation for 15 years. This guy has claimed credit for every single victory on the way up, but he's %%&^-ed up every decision on the way down, yet he has so far managed to avoid any repercussions while continuing to claim that he'll being sales back to growth "next week with just a few phone calls". The place is now on the verge of bankruptcy after 50 years of continuous growth and profit, and all I can do is say "I told you so".

Yeah...I'm very bitter over it. It's hard to invest 30 years of effort into an organization then watch some idiot f&%$ it up while you stand from the sidelines shouting unheeded warnings.

:x :-x :x
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: A Commercial Real Estate Story....

Unread postby MarkJ » Thu 16 Apr 2009, 12:39:22

Commercial landlords are gouging many of their current tenants, so their tenants are looking for their own space, or looking for better locations for a little more money.

Many of the lower rent commercial landlords are pretty poor when it comes to maintenance of buildings, parking lots, parking lot lighting, snow removal etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Wilton developer plans multi-use complex
Openings to house light industry, offices on route 50

WILTON -- A local developer hopes to break ground this spring on the first of seven facilities meant to house light industries and office space.

The first of the seven 20,000-square-foot buildings, to be located on a 20-acre property at the corner of Edie Road and Route 50 in the town of Wilton, about two miles past the Wilton Mall, recently got a thumbs-up from the town Planning Board.

Potential buyers can purchase or lease the entire structure, or only a portion of it, Leman said.

He said the project has benefitted from the economic downturn because some business owners find themselves paying too much rent and want to own their own space instead.


http://www.poststar.com/articles/2009/0 ... 811258.txt
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Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Sun 13 Dec 2009, 10:44:08

Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/interview-with-commercial-real-estate.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')lene: Do you think the recession is over?
Mr. Solomon: No, we will be in it for a number of years. Assuming the GDP is up in the short term, it doesn’t matter. It’s due to more debt expansion. The real world debt must eventually decline. It’s a government induced blimp that cannot go on, it’s not sustainable.

Ilene: Are there any areas where you would be building now?
Mr. Solomon: Regions will do better in the lower tax states that are less unionized, with less government regulation, for example Texas.

Ilene: In your business, would you be hiring people any time soon?
Mr. Solomon: No hiring. Due to the economy and health care issues, we’re not hiring anyone. Hiring is a liability, might be taking on a life-long obligation. We prefer to be firing now, decreasing the number of employees.


How's that HopeNchange working out for you? Obama's policys are failing miserably because he does not know anything about business or the economy. We need to politically neuter this buffoon in November 2010.
Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
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Re: Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer

Unread postby dsula » Sun 13 Dec 2009, 10:58:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '[')i]How's that HopeNchange working out for you? Obama's policys are failing miserably because he does not know anything about business or the economy. We need to politically neuter this buffoon in November 2010.


There's nothing that can done. The burocratic overhead and waste and entrenchment is so big, even the best president-would-be can't change much. The state must shrink at the pace of the economy. However that has never happened for any civilization. The answer to hardship was always more goverment, not less, until the foundation crumbles and the whole mess comes crashing down.
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Re: Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer

Unread postby Ayoob » Sun 13 Dec 2009, 13:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '[')i]How's that HopeNchange working out for you? Obama's policys are failing miserably because he does not know anything about business or the economy. We need to politically neuter this buffoon in November 2010.


There's nothing that can done. The burocratic overhead and waste and entrenchment is so big, even the best president-would-be can't change much. The state must shrink at the pace of the economy. However that has never happened for any civilization. The answer to hardship was always more goverment, not less, until the foundation crumbles and the whole mess comes crashing down.


As much as I hate to admit it, Schwartzenegger is doing a pretty good job with the California budget. Cut and slash, burn to the ground, see what we can afford, slash and burn again. THAT's the only way out.
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Re: Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer

Unread postby Geodesic » Sun 13 Dec 2009, 22:55:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '
')How's that HopeNchange working out for you? Obama's policys are failing miserably because he does not know anything about business or the economy. We need to politically neuter this buffoon in November 2010.


He's definitely not the socialist, liberal, leftist, commie I voted for. Just continuing more of the bailouts for billionaires and war mongering policies of the previous war mongers. Hey, war is a growth industry.
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Re: Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Dec 2009, 23:44:40

Well, he could have gone the Hoover route and we know how that turned out.

It doesn't matter the ideology in power; nothing will work until the debt is worked out.

GOP or DEMS, same result.

Whether you spend money or cut taxes you are still using money you don't have.

Debt now or debt later.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Interview With A Commercial Real Estate Developer

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 14 Dec 2009, 12:17:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '[')i]How's that HopeNchange working out for you? Obama's policys are failing miserably because he does not know anything about business or the economy. We need to politically neuter this buffoon in November 2010.


There's nothing that can done. The burocratic overhead and waste and entrenchment is so big, even the best president-would-be can't change much. The state must shrink at the pace of the economy. However that has never happened for any civilization. The answer to hardship was always more goverment, not less, until the foundation crumbles and the whole mess comes crashing down.


As much as I hate to admit it, Schwartzenegger is doing a pretty good job with the California budget. Cut and slash, burn to the ground, see what we can afford, slash and burn again. THAT's the only way out.

If we amended the Constitution so foreign born citizens could run for President after they've lived here a certain # of years, I might actually go out and vote for Schwartzenegger (after not having voted for anyone for President since Perot in '92)
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

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Re: A Commercial Real Estate Story....

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 20 Dec 2009, 23:26:56

I have been hearing about this bubble for a couple of years now but never really spent much time thinking about it, my own problems have been too immediate and pressing.

I ended up researching it a little bit this last week because of the Detroit thread, I figured Detroit was already as depressed as a commercial real estate market could get. Much to my dismay I discovered my error. Turns out a lot of the commercial building down town that sat empty in whole or in part were sold under easy lending terms in the last decade, and now the bills are coming due at the same time that the rent market has dried up. From what I could gather several old skyscrapers that were not sold are muddling through just fine even with modest occupancy rates, but the majority of the towers in Detroit and the two main ones in Toledo are in deep financial trouble if the interest rates go up AT ALL. One of them is advertising desperately for tenant because they have an interest only mortgage and it takes over 90% of their current lease income to pay the monthly bills with nothing left over for improvements or repair work. A few months ago the court ordered lease payments go directly to the mortgage holder and only the left over funds pass through to the 'owner'.

This is a recipe' for disaster, if they lose a single tenant then they will be in terminal default. Anyone care to wager on how likely that scenario is to come to pass? Also with an interest only mortgage they are still in hoc for the same sum now that 5 years or so have passed as they were on day one, and if interest rates get raised to fight inflation they are doomed.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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