by Tanada » Sun 20 Dec 2009, 23:26:56
I have been hearing about this bubble for a couple of years now but never really spent much time thinking about it, my own problems have been too immediate and pressing.
I ended up researching it a little bit this last week because of the Detroit thread, I figured Detroit was already as depressed as a commercial real estate market could get. Much to my dismay I discovered my error. Turns out a lot of the commercial building down town that sat empty in whole or in part were sold under easy lending terms in the last decade, and now the bills are coming due at the same time that the rent market has dried up. From what I could gather several old skyscrapers that were not sold are muddling through just fine even with modest occupancy rates, but the majority of the towers in Detroit and the two main ones in Toledo are in deep financial trouble if the interest rates go up AT ALL. One of them is advertising desperately for tenant because they have an interest only mortgage and it takes over 90% of their current lease income to pay the monthly bills with nothing left over for improvements or repair work. A few months ago the court ordered lease payments go directly to the mortgage holder and only the left over funds pass through to the 'owner'.
This is a recipe' for disaster, if they lose a single tenant then they will be in terminal default. Anyone care to wager on how likely that scenario is to come to pass? Also with an interest only mortgage they are still in hoc for the same sum now that 5 years or so have passed as they were on day one, and if interest rates get raised to fight inflation they are doomed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.