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What's the deal with growth and our economy?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

What's the deal with growth and our economy?

Postby MoogSM » Mon 02 May 2005, 12:40:43

I feel like I have some idea about how our currency and economy depends on growth. All the peak oil books I've read have at least a couple pages about it.

But I want to understand it better. Are there any books, or chapters in books, that talk about this and the different ways that our economy could be destabilized? I want to understand this to the extent that I can explain it to others. At this point I can make claims, but when people want to know specifics I can't say much.

Are there any good books on this subject, i.e. a critique, or description then critique, of our growth economy, or a comparison between ours and other stable economies not based on growth?
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Postby some_guy282 » Mon 02 May 2005, 13:54:19

There's a great discussion of it here on the boards. If you want a sound bite to explain it, try this:

Our monetary system is like a giant ponzi scheme. Ponzi scheme's need to keep growing and have more idiots invest their money in it each cycle. When the system doesn't grow fast enough, or not at all, it collapses. Monetary system works the same way. New and bigger loans (debt) need to be created all the time to pay back the old loans. When no new money is being created to pay off the old debts, people in the system will have to foreclose on their loans.

It's like the average person trying to pay off all their credit card debt with other credit cards forever. It's worked because metaphorically speaking the credit card companies have kept us at 0% interest and kept expanding our line of credit even though we haven't actually given them a dime. When the growth stops, our interest rate will metaphorically shoot up, and line of credit go way down.

The bill will come due.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Postby threadbear » Mon 02 May 2005, 14:06:54

William Greider, One World Ready or Not, is astounding on this score. It outlines the completely idiotic false premises behind free market globalization, which is just a cover for croney capitalism, anyway. I don't know if he goes into proposing alternatives, though.
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Postby big_rc » Mon 02 May 2005, 15:02:18

Hey Moog,

Check out this article on Energybulletin.net . It's one of the best explanation pieces I have ever read about money.

Money, Money, Money
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Postby smiley » Mon 02 May 2005, 15:41:19

My parents bought a house about 30 years back. They have done well, the value of the house increased by more than a factor of 10.

When my parents bought it my father was the only one with an income. Me and my GF both have a well paying job. In fact we both earn more than my father is doing now. Yet we couldn't buy my parents house if we wanted to.

The house I live in was build in 1930. Back then it was designed for factory workers. It was typically occupied by families of 6 or 7. One wage earner, wife and children. Now it would be almost impossible to get the house with a single factory job. Let alone to raise a few kids on the remaining salary.

Is that economic growth? To have to work harder and longer, to be better skilled and educated in order to be able to afford the same things as the generations before us.

Perhaps the world does not depend on economic growth.

It is the perception of growth which matters.
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Postby TheSupplyGuy » Mon 02 May 2005, 15:45:31

At first, I balked at claims that people were working harder for less, but now, it seems to be more and more true.
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Postby threadbear » Mon 02 May 2005, 16:22:51

Smiley, People still buy the growth argument, and never factor in, even if they have bought a place, that it takes two really good incomes to do it. I think the perception of plenty is fuelled by all the junk that nobody needs, produced in third world countries that actually is cheap. The necessities are getting much more expensive, medical insurance, housing, food. But you won't hear the idiot free marketeers mentioning that. It interferes with the fairy tale they like to tell themselves and others.
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Postby FatherOfTwo » Mon 02 May 2005, 16:29:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some_guy282', ' ') Our monetary system is like a giant ponzi scheme...

While true, you may want to avoid using language like that. People will immediately put a wall up because it is such a radical departure from their reality.
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Postby Dezakin » Wed 04 May 2005, 22:25:51

So the concensus on this thread is all the growth in the global economy we've seen for the past several centuries is illusionary.

Wow thats really gonna suck when the fermented ergot wears off and I have to go back to farming 15 hours a a day.
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Postby ohanian » Thu 05 May 2005, 02:09:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheSupplyGuy', 'A')t first, I balked at claims that people were working harder for less, but now, it seems to be more and more true.


Hey! That's what we said about the Japanese in 1980. They work their guts out and stay in small chicken hutches.

I guess, now it's time for the yanks to work their guts out and stay in small bear hutches.
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Postby alexis » Sat 07 May 2005, 17:30:32

Here are some other relevant links to help you investigate the problem...


The Fatal Trap : http://www.earthsociety.org/index.php?pgxfer=323

Money, Wealth and energy : http://www.earthsociety.org/index.php?pgxfer=321

How money is created and disappears : http://www.earthsociety.org/index.php?pgxfer=322

US banking history : http://www.earthsociety.org/index.php?pgxfer=324

.....................................8O........................................
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Postby threadbear » Sat 07 May 2005, 20:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'S')o the concensus on this thread is all the growth in the global economy we've seen for the past several centuries is illusionary.

Wow thats really gonna suck when the fermented ergot wears off and I have to go back to farming 15 hours a a day.


I think that most were referring to the growth in the last 25 or 30 years, where the hype about growth was the only thing that actually grew. Many people who had middle class parents, are now struggling with poverty, though they may have an ipod- Good name for a book "Poverty with an I-pod"
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Postby DantesPeak » Sat 07 May 2005, 21:09:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'M')y parents bought a house about 30 years back. They have done well, the value of the house increased by more than a factor of 10.

When my parents bought it my father was the only one with an income. Me and my GF both have a well paying job. In fact we both earn more than my father is doing now. Yet we couldn't buy my parents house if we wanted to.

The house I live in was build in 1930. Back then it was designed for factory workers. It was typically occupied by families of 6 or 7. One wage earner, wife and children. Now it would be almost impossible to get the house with a single factory job. Let alone to raise a few kids on the remaining salary.

Is that economic growth? To have to work harder and longer, to be better skilled and educated in order to be able to afford the same things as the generations before us.

Perhaps the world does not depend on economic growth.

It is the perception of growth which matters.


Good point. I don't have the statistics to support this handy, but I believe wage income, per person on an inflation adjusted basis, peaked about 1973. This was also roughly the same time that that PO hit continental US and the US went off the gold standard. It is no coincidence these events occurred about the same time.

Other types of 'non-earned' income, such as capital gains (including non-taxable housing gains) and dividends/interest are relatively higher than back then - and have helped the economy in recent years.

In 2005, even by official statistics already, inflation adjusted after-tax disposable income (income from all sources) has leveled out - and we are not even in a recession yet.

The next down turn in the economy will be a true down turn in the standard of living for many. How that standard will be lowered could be a loss of a job, home foreclosure, or just less money to spend after paying the energy bills.

Most of the US growth was "real" in that we extracted vast amounts of energy from the Earth - and more recently the US is now being supported by a trade deficit running more than $800 billion per year. That much money and more enters the US from foreigners as investment, and keeps the standard of living high.

When that money and energy are gone it will seem like an illusion on those looking back to this time.
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Postby JonathanR » Sun 08 May 2005, 01:15:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y parents bought a house about 30 years back. They have done well, the value of the house increased by more than a factor of 10.


The house is still a house, thirty years on. It has not become ten times more valuable, just that you need ten times the cash to buy it.

The only thing that may have become a little more valuable is the land that the house sits on. And the only cause of this is population growth.
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Postby Zerstuckelung » Sun 08 May 2005, 12:36:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')any people who had middle class parents, are now struggling with poverty, though they may have an ipod- Good name for a book "Poverty with an I-pod"


I also have a Powerbook... :lol:
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Postby Dezakin » Tue 10 May 2005, 12:54:10

Indeed. The concensus here is the vast amount of inexpensive goods and services that are now avaliable to many more people is also an illusion.

Look, you can come up with anecdotes about how housing in san fransisco is unaffordable for factory workers, but that doesnt define the real economy. There are far more goods and services avaliable at lower cost to everyone today than 30 years ago.
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