[JustaGirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you knew me back in the early 2000s, you would have started to invest heavily in gold. By 2005 you'd have been aware of the impending housing crash. By 2006 you'd have known that the economy was about to crash. And, pray tell, what mechanism would have operated to provided you with such enriching information? Simply, I would have told you. Had you known me.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', ' ')I do not see your point.

. . .
I couldn't disagree with you more there. What are you basing your prediction, that we are falling off a cliff right now, on? You must be privy to some information the ASPO isn't. I find that very suspect.

Anyway, if we are going off the cliff right now. I guess we will know within a year.

[Velociryx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do I base my guess on? It's all over PO.com.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do I base my guess on? It's all over PO.com.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do I base my guess on? It's all over PO.com.

[Velociryx]

Heh! Some great reads in there, Ludi!

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't trust any single source for my news.

My reference to "it's all over po.com" was a reference to my postings, which enunciate my opinions, which answers the original question.

[JustaGirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '
')
What do you disagree with? That the ASPO is making a wild guess and not admitting it?

What do I base my guess on? It's all over PO.com.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '
')As to the latter...you don't have many more posts than I do

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', '
')
Yes I disagree that they are making a wild guess. The ASPO is filled with former geologists(Colin Campbell), engineers, etc. It's not just some whacko saying, Oh, I think Cantarell will decline 80% this year, and then it goes in their reports. They called 2008 for the peak of all liquids and it was so. In 2008 there was more liquids pumped out in total than the year 2005, making 2008 the peak year. That's a pretty good track record to me. Even theoildrum's megaprojects list suggests we might squeak out a few more years before falling off a cliff. Do you disagree with them as well?

No real reason to go back and forth, we both seem to agree in the future there will be less oil. No iffs, ands, or buts.

[larlin]

What I think you all miss is that this report as I read it at least is not meant to be a complete new analysis. They don't say that they know what will happen in KSA. All they do is to look at what the numbers that IEA have publish would mean. In this case they say that the production rates in the IEA report would translate into a higher depletion rate on new fields then on any old field produced to date. So all they do is to put the depletion rate into historical more correct values.

There argument for this is that the IEA should make a very strong argument about why it did this. This they don't instead they just put it in there and don't explain it in any way. So it all boils down to do you think new fields will have a radical higher depletion rate then old fields or not.

So this is a good evidence for bad science at work at the IEA. As the difference between what IEA suggests and the North Sea is about 5% or almost double it's makes a big difference.

There are some more points in the report but the one discussed above makes the big difference.

I may be biased due to being from Sweden. =)

[JustaGirl]

Mr O, really ASPO is the warm fuzzy pillow? Mr. Campbell's(founder of ASPO i'm sure you know?) has in the past very much been the hard rock. You can look up all his very pessimistic predictions and see for yourself, starting in 1989. So you still are making little sense. You know about as much, probably much less, about Saudi's situation as the ASPO. You sound exactly like Stuart Staniford in 2006, Saudi is going off a cliff RIGHT NOW. Well, no, not yet.

larlin - The ASPO does put out analysis of their own and it is pretty much the same as this report.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'M')r O,

[JustaGirl]

OK Dr O

Do you not see, how with ever frantic prediction that does not come true, you lessen the peak oil message? This is why places like the oil drum, have talked about not even referring to peak oil and finding a new name, because too many bad predictions in the past have dampened the peak oil movement and a lot of J6p's now think it's just a lot of chicken little's.

75 mbd ALL liquids, something around 50 mdb oil, iirc. The US is doing something in the ballpark to that right now, <5 mbd oil but over 8 mbd liquids. I do not see the ASPO prediction as being impossible, only the IEA's. But I'm not making any predictions either. I'm just here for the ride.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat really means business as usual for two more decades. Sure, price will go up, but not uncontrollably. The poor countries will just get none, and we'll pay 2 or 3 times the amount here in the west, but it will still be plenty of oil.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', '
')Do you not see, how with ever frantic prediction that does not come true, you lessen the peak oil message?

[Velociryx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no Peak Oil "message." We are not the Climate Change Cult. The forces arrayed against Peak Oil ever being in the public discussion are too numerous to overcome (right wing idiots, left wing techtopians, corporate interests, oil interests).

But I do agree with your general principle that having lots of missed calls makes future calls seem less veritable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', 'I')f you want to maintain the cornucopian fantasy that the KSA has plenty of oil to give, then you must answer, with a reasonable answer, the question:

Why over a several year span when prices were going through the roof did the KSA fail to increase production?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', 'T')hat does not compute.

[Dr. Ofellati]

V and OF - play with each other instead of yourselves for a nice change.