[Dr. Ofellati]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009 ... a-aleklett

Essentially a Swedish academic institute has piled on and said that the IEA is grossly underestimating future supplies.

In part:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')jell Aleklett, professor of physics at Uppsala and co-author of a new report "The Peak of the Oil Age", claims oil production is more likely to be 75m barrels a day by 2030 than the "unrealistic" 105m used by the IEA in its recently published World Energy Outlook 2009.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr O', 'L')iquid fuels are clinging to life at just over 80. Crude is ready to drop below 70. There has been no increase in production in five years. At the height of the 08 oil spike, the world couldn't muster even a few million bpd more to cash in on the bonanza. There have been no significant finds in years, and none is on the horizon. Aging fields like Cantarell and North Sea are experiencing dramatic declines. And the big unknown - the KSA - is showing signs of cracking.

[Jotapay]

I stand behind the Jotapay investment strategy which is two years running now: guns, grub, bullets, and PMs. And a posse of kinfolk.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr O', 'L')iquid fuels are clinging to life at just over 80. Crude is ready to drop below 70. There has been no increase in production in five years. At the height of the 08 oil spike, the world couldn't muster even a few million bpd more to cash in on the bonanza. There have been no significant finds in years, and none is on the horizon. Aging fields like Cantarell and North Sea are experiencing dramatic declines. And the big unknown - the KSA - is showing signs of cracking.

[JustaGirl]

Are you implying you know more than the ASPO? That is truly funny. 75 mbd in 2030 would not be some BAU utopia as you seem to imply. It would mean no or negative growth for the next 20 years! And with decline never slowing, it only gets worse after that.

Sorry if I would take Mr. Aleklett's word over yours.

[mos6507]

There is a big psychological difference between the net positive graph in the IEA report and the net negative graph in the Upsalla projection. Both of these, though, accept that current fields are already in permanent decline. The only debate is how much all of these other sources, some of which are largely speculative (i.e. fields "yet to be found") will replace the decline rate in existing fields.

Considering that all of the easy oil, the supergiant fields, were discovered long ago, the downward slide of existing active fields is the real driving statistic here, and even if all those other items stacked up are able to enable us to tread water, the amount of effort required to do that is enormous, and is surely better spent towards renewables anyway.

If one does not classify us as being at peak oil, then we're still certainly at an ominous crossroads.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'A')re you implying you know more than the ASPO? That is truly funny. 75 mbd in 2030 would not be some BAU utopia as you seem to imply. It would mean no or negative growth for the next 20 years! And with decline never slowing, it only gets worse after that. Sorry if I would take Mr. Aleklett's word over yours.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')here is a big psychological difference between the net positive graph in the IEA report and the net negative graph in the Upsalla projection. Both of these, though, accept that current fields are already in permanent decline. The only debate is how much all of these other sources, some of which are largely speculative (i.e. fields "yet to be found") will replace the decline rate in existing fields.

Considering that all of the easy oil, the supergiant fields, were discovered long ago, the downward slide of existing active fields is the real driving statistic here, and even if all those other items stacked up are able to enable us to tread water, the amount of effort required to do that is enormous, and is surely better spent towards renewables anyway.

If one does not classify us as being at peak oil, then we're still certainly at an ominous crossroads.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'A')re you implying you know more than the ASPO? That is truly funny. 75 mbd in 2030 would not be some BAU utopia as you seem to imply. It would mean no or negative growth for the next 20 years! And with decline never slowing, it only gets worse after that. Sorry if I would take Mr. Aleklett's word over yours.

[Maddog78]

Schmuto, you must be rich! Congratulations. Take a trip to Las Vegas while you still can.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', ' ')Well, let's think about this.
If you knew me back in the early 2000s, you would have started to invest heavily in gold. By 2005 you'd have been aware of the impending housing crash. By 2006 you'd have known that the economy was about to crash. And, pray tell, what mechanism would have operated to provided you with such enriching information? Simply, I would have told you. Had you known me.
Also in 06 you would have heard me advise you to start buying long contracts into oil. By summer 08, should you have chosen, as I did, to cash out your positions, you'd have a made a several fold profit.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '
')We plainly recognize in the cornucopians like Maddog and OF, a fear of confronting the awful future that descends upon us.

[rangerone314]

Its kind of amusing, sad really, that some people consider a decline from where we are now by about 10% to 75mbbl in 2030 is not a big deal.

Consider how many $2000 cars from Tata (among others) will be on the road in 2030, compared with how many cars that will be electric.

Consider a world with 9 billion compared with 6.8 billion now.

Increased efficiency regardless, the world will need atleast 105 by 2030 NOT 75. That is a HUGE shortfall. Not to mention a real big bidding war on oil.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '
')We plainly recognize in the cornucopians like Maddog and OF, a fear of confronting the awful future that descends upon us.

[Maddog78]

Yeah, good one.
I've had some amazing discussions with this woman in the past.
She has next to no concept of supply/demand and market economies.
Her husband just sits there quietly and listens.
He does not want to get involved.
Probably worried about where that gun would be pointed later because she really needs something else.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')Funny how here I'm thought of as a corny

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')Funny how here I'm thought of as a corny

[Maddog78]

I don't think so.
That would be too nice for him.
I think he probably likes dogs a whole lot more than cornys.

[thuja]

Yet another nail in the coffin for the idea that Peak Oil is way way out there. I can smell the panic on some of these guys. They know their rosy projections aren't measuring up and they keep having to reduce their estimates. How long until IEA=ASPO?

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')et another nail in the coffin for the idea that Peak Oil is way way out there. I can smell the panic on some of these guys. They know their rosy projections aren't measuring up and they keep having to reduce their estimates. How long until IEA=ASPO?