[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')D, your own numbers suggest a symmetrical peak in 2005 which seems to support Simmons' earlier prediction.

[FreddyH]

Underlying Decline in KSA has been rising 52-kbd/yr since 2003. The 2008 UDR is only 2.5% (0.26-mbd). Aramco has increased production from 8.6 to 9.1-mbd over the past 12 months following the 2006Q3 forced OEDC inventories correction by OPEC.

This truly is a silly thread...

[TheDude]

Well, off topic perhaps. Assuming reservoir decline will necessarily lead to ground subsidence is pretty silly too.

Some comments from TOD on the Bernstein study.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')urthermore, the oil at Ghawar is >6000 feet underground, overlain by and encased in rock. Why would the ground subside, with or without water injection? It's absurd to say the least.

Perhaps the Bernstein analyst, the much discredited Neil McMahon, thinks that oil fields are big underground caverns or somesuch.

Last thing I remember from this guy, he was saying that oil prices were going back to $35 - this was when they were at about $60. Worse than Yergin..... 'nuff said.

[Ferretlover]

Running Dry. The world’s most essential oil field may be in decline. BY JAMES D. HAMILTON
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o country is more important to oil markets than Saudi Arabia. The kingdom produced roughly 9.2 million barrels of crude a day in 2006, and accounted for 19 percent of world oil exports. Many analysts expect it to supply a quarter of the world’s added production over the next few years. And as the only producer with significant excess capacity, it has played a crucial role in alleviating temporary supply disruptions, increasing daily production by 3.1 million barrels during the first Gulf War, for example, when oil production in Iraq and Kuwait dropped by 5.3 million barrels. …

[ROCKMAN]

shortonoil,

When you doubt "we" could fund a major drilling effort in the Bakken who is that "we" (as Tonto said to the Lone Ranger.) If it's an economical play there will be no lack of money. Our corporate headquarters just "forced" another $250 million on top of our division's $720 million 2008 budget.

As far as Marathon being a minor player, pstarr, I think they still rank in the top 10 US oils. But you're right in that they are not the company they once were. But I understand how OF2 irritates you. Its still one of my sick pleasures to watch him get beat up.

Dude - I haven't seen a recent est. of Bakken drilling costs but I bet it's several times your $2 million guess. But that's the good news. We're drilling longer horizontals and doing as many as 12 frac jobs in one hole. Such a well up there might run $8 million but it's proving to be a much better investment than short cheaper wells.

But I do think there is a big psychological downside to B. development. The angry villagers may quickly see hundreds of press releases about B. wells coming on at 500 to 1500 bopd. But these wells will have a much more rapid decline rate than the typical conventional reservoirs. But there will likely be thousands of such wells drilled (last spring my company drilled its 1000th well in the Barnett play in Texas). The newer wells will quickly replace the rapidly depleting wells so folks will think there a longer HIGH FLOW RATE life to the field. An individual well might produce for 20 years but at perhaps less than 50 bopd for the last 15 years or so. So you are all right and all wrong: probably a big rush of new production for a while but not a Ghawar in the sense of a big reserve producing at a high rate for a long time.

[ONeil]

North GHAWAR has run dry ? ! ?: I heard one report of this yesterday. Does anyone have more detailed information on the current status of the GHAWAR oil field?

[zberry]

I don't think it HAS run dry, but it is running dry.
See the article in Atlantic Monthly, which draws on work by Stuart Staniford that appeared on theoildrum.com
Atlantic Monthly - Running Dry

[Minvaren]

From an Oil Drum discussion, regarding the recent ASPO conference:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') submitted a written question to Mr. [Peter] Wells, "What impact (and when) will North Ghawar watering out have ?"
He responded that they were already getting high water cuts and shutting in some wells, it is not a sudden oil > water (I knew this, besides Ghawar is too large to water out uniformly).
And then, in a quiet voice, he said that North Ghawar should "mostly" water out within the next two years or so.
He did not address the impact of this development.

[rockdoc123]

"water out" is a dangerous term to use. There are many pools in the world that continue to produce at water cuts around 90% (Kern River is expected to be there very soon). The issue is driven by physics (oil versus water mobility ratios, wettability etc) and economics (what is the operating cost to produce a barrel of fluid, separate and dispose of the water) versus what a barrel of oil brings, eg: if it costs $5 to lift a barrel of fluid @ 90% water cut and oil is selling at $80/bbl then your profit is still around 30%). The Saudis have been developing a number of high tech approaches to dealing with water encroachment including 4D seismic, SMART completions, expandable liners, MRC wells etc. According to Aramco their full field simulation suggests they will see ultimate recovery from AinDur of 73%.

[zberry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') submitted a written question to Mr. [Peter] Wells, "What impact (and when) will North Ghawar watering out have ?"
He responded that they were already getting high water cuts and shutting in some wells, it is not a sudden oil > water (I knew this, besides Ghawar is too large to water out uniformly).
And then, in a quiet voice, he said that North Ghawar should "mostly" water out within the next two years or so.
He did not address the impact of this development.

[dukey]

the economy is going to be f.ucked so hard it probably won't matter

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') submitted a written question to Mr. [Peter] Wells

[ROCKMAN]

As doc explained so clearly, Ghawar will be producing commercial volumes of oil for many, many decades. I deal with Gulf coast fields that are producting quit profitably a 1% oil cut. It has never been a question of when Ghawar would run out oil.... it's been the declining production rate. Eventually the net oil rate will be determined by the physical limits of total oil/water production and processing from a given well and the net income from such an operation.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')s doc explained so clearly, Ghawar will be producing commercial volumes of oil for many, many decades. I deal with Gulf coast fields that are producting quit profitably a 1% oil cut. It has never been a question of when Ghawar would run out oil.... it's been the declining production rate. Eventually the net oil rate will be determined by the physical limits of total oil/water production and processing from a given well and the net income from such an operation.

[deMolay]

For those who keep an eye on Ghawar. http://www.glgroup.com/News/Halliburton ... 44671.html

[eXpat]

Good, squeeze squeeze!!! bring it on!

[ian807]

The fact that this is becoming necessary is not particularly good news.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'G')ood, squeeze squeeze!!! bring it on!

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'G')ood, squeeze squeeze!!! bring it on!