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Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 13:04:22

The general feeling is that individual morality and respect for life has no bearing on whether people become raving lunatics in a collapse scenario. You know, Lord of the Flies. The situation creates the behavior and nothing moderates it. The racist talk seems to be probing this question. Is there any difference between types of people with different cultural inclinations, different valuesystems, when faced with adversity? I'd like to think there is. That means that one country might resort to machete massacres and another might bond together peacefully. I don't know which way the US will go. Obviously we have a sense of entitlement, rugged individualism, competitiveness, and a lack of community spirit. We also have a culture of the glorification of violence with hip-hop, graphic videogames, etc... But this is still a far cry from the ethnic cleansing type things we've seen in africa or the balkans, or the crap that goes down in the middle-east. We are largely a culture of faux death and faux violence. For most of us, we're into this shit because our lives are too mundane, but I still think we prefer to keep it mundane and the excitment virtual, so there are no real consequences. We want to blow away prostitutes in Grand Theft Auto from the comfort of the couch with cheese doodles by our side. So I'm not sure whether we'll automatically make the leap to death squads where people start shooting back.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 13:08:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'T')he conseravative goverment in Canada (read Republican), is actively trying to reinflate the pre-collapse bubble. They are running a massive structual deficit to support 'an economic action plan' that involves tax breaks for people to renovate and invest in their already lavish homes. One time cash (grants) or payouts (mainly to known conservative voters) for business expansion and job creation, and large scale government spending on any project they think will win Conservative voter support.

(This all came with a enourmous political scandal attached to it. That the mailed out cheques (from public government funds) all have the Conservative name and logo printed on them, along with the conservative's canidate sponcer name attached on the cheques as well).

They may actually achieve the reinflated bubble economy up here, given their enourmous and reckless deficit spending. However, it is all deficit money, and when TSHTF (likely from peak oil) this money will all be gone and the economy will collapse again.


Depends on your perspective. There's probably more than a few in B.C. Alberta and Sask. that are hoping for some effects of peak oil so they can get back to business.
Winipeg and east. Not so much.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 13:15:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he general feeling is that individual morality and respect for life has no bearing on whether people become raving lunatics in a collapse scenario. You know, Lord of the Flies. The situation creates the behavior and nothing moderates it. The racist talk seems to be probing this question. Is there any difference between types of people with different cultural inclinations, different valuesystems, when faced with adversity? I'd like to think there is. That means that one country might resort to machete massacres and another might bond together peacefully. I don't know which way the US will go. Obviously we have a sense of entitlement, rugged individualism, competitiveness, and a lack of community spirit. We also have a culture of the glorification of violence with hip-hop, graphic videogames, etc... But this is still a far cry from the ethnic cleansing type things we've seen in africa or the balkans, or the crap that goes down in the middle-east. We are largely a culture of faux death and faux violence. For most of us, we're into this shit because our lives are too mundane, but I still think we prefer to keep it mundane and the excitment virtual, so there are no real consequences. We want to blow away prostitutes in Grand Theft Auto from the comfort of the couch with cheese doodles by our side. So I'm not sure whether we'll automatically make the leap to death squads where people start shooting back.


Impossible to say. Think of Germany '39 to '49 or there abouts. Germany is a VERY civilized society. Up until this century I think you will find the greatest donor country to USA was Germany. So, IMO we can look to Germany to see the limits of how far we can swing. They are us, we are they.

Also, the US is far from homogeneous (and far less than Germany.) That could work in a couple of different ways. On the one hand we could fracture into waring tribes. On the other, if there is no clear super majority then we might come together across racial/ethnic/cultural boundaries. Most likely we will see some of both depending upon local conditions.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 15:43:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab', ' ')There will be machete massacres everywhere..



So this will occur when "fossil fuels go away"?

Then my mixed-race neighbors will slaughter their family members?
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 17:19:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab', ' ')There will be machete massacres everywhere..



So this will occur when "fossil fuels go away"?

Then my mixed-race neighbors will slaughter their family members?


Human nature sucks.

Rwanda example:
http://slomanson.tjsl.edu/RadioMachete.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')40. Witness GO, a Hutu who worked at the Ministry of Information monitoring
the private press, testified that he had read The Ten Commandments and that they had
8
been broadcast on RTLM [aka Radio Machete]. He described the goal of mentioning
them as “to ensure that the population understood that all the Hutus must become united”,
that “they should have a single fighting goal that they should aim for”, and “that they
should have no link or relationship between Hutus and Tutsis”. He said it was for this
reason that some men started killing their Tutsi wives, or children of a mixed marriage
killed their own Tutsi parents.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 17:27:15

Rangerone, you seems to be considering a more violent scenario that I contemplate. Not to say you are wrong, but I hope you are.

I don't see that level of violence being widespread in North America.

I believe that in Rawanda they have something like the world's highest rural population density and long standing tribal conflicts due to forced migration. Those are factors we don't have here.

People foraging for food by moving out of impoverished neighborhoods to rummage through supermarkets in suburban communities and the attendant panic/reaction will be quite bad enough.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 17:28:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Rwanda example]



Not too much tribal animosity here in my locale, as far as I can tell.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 17:44:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Rwanda example]



Not too much tribal animosity here in my locale, as far as I can tell.


I seem to be in a contrarian mood today.

Perhaps not in your local but.......there seems to be plenty in some inner city neighborhoods, gang v gang. I just don't expect that to be a large scale phenomenon (thank God for spell check.) That could get ugly locally.

I wonder how much of our apparent differences of opinion on this board are due to our locales? Many here already live in the country, some next to nowhere and no one. I live in brownstone in CC Philadelphia. So our concerns and view points are shaped by our locale.

A couple of years ago I was driving through CC when I drove right into a group of about 15 kids beating the daylights out of one. Right in the middle of the downtown district. Instinctively I stopped the car, got out and screamed at the kids to stop.

Yeah big ol' chunky me. No sense I tell you, none. I've done stupid things like this before. Sometimes the snake brain just takes over and I react. Like sneaking up behind a Peeping Tom in my shorts, with no shoes or shirt. Scared the @#$ out of him, and me latter.

One guy had this gal by the hair and was just kicking and kicking her, just to get the last few licks in. They dispersed when I approached, including the one who was being attacked. I tell you they were not pulling their punches, or their feet.

That kind of thing can shake you up a bit.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 17:54:01

Bloods vs Crips... red vs blue, innocent bystander wearing blue gets whacked etc. And this is black on black, in "good time".

When times suck, instead of just the wrong shirt color, try having the wrong skin color too and see how far evolved we are beyond Rwanda, Bosnia (or chimpanzees for that matter, which do the same things we do)

Morality like racism is skin deep.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 18:39:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Impossible to say. Think of Germany '39 to '49 or there abouts. Germany is a VERY civilized society.


Germany was still scarred from WWI and the reparations that followed. The only scarring we've had so far was 911 and I think the neocon approach died last year. Don't get me wrong. There is a lot of domestic turmoil. I just don't see people hacking eachother with machetes or driving truck bombs into wedding ceremonies anytime soon. The internet and talk radio are kind of the escape valve for the public right now. We feel empowered by whining. Not that I think it's any virtuous act to go throwing molotov cocktails.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 20:10:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Impossible to say. Think of Germany '39 to '49 or there abouts. Germany is a VERY civilized society.


Germany was still scarred from WWI and the reparations that followed. The only scarring we've had so far was 911 and I think the neocon approach died last year. Don't get me wrong. There is a lot of domestic turmoil. I just don't see people hacking eachother with machetes or driving truck bombs into wedding ceremonies anytime soon. The internet and talk radio are kind of the escape valve for the public right now. We feel empowered by whining. Not that I think it's any virtuous act to go throwing molotov cocktails.


I believe we are largely in agreement over how we see the future evolving in a slow collapse scenario. US mass violence will be limited to small areas in and around some cities.

I still think it will be interesting to watch Mexico over the next period to see how they fare.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Revi » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 22:08:42

Why wouldn't things get nasty in the US?

Once a lot of people quit eating regularly it could easily turn nasty.

Why wouldn't it happen?

I'll bet people will riot when the gasoline gets pricey, or scarce.

There's a very thin line between civilization and chaos.

I've seen it.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Pops » Thu 05 Nov 2009, 22:21:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')5.5 million people—including 12.6 million children—live in households that experience hunger or the risk of hunger. This represents more than one in ten households in the United States (10.9 percent). 1

4.0 percent of U.S. households experience hunger. Some people in these households frequently skip meals or eat too little, sometimes going without food for a whole day. 11.1 million people, including 430 thousand children, live in these homes.1

6.9 percent of U.S. households are at risk of hunger. Members of these households have lower quality diets or must resort to seeking emergency food because they cannot always afford the food they need. 24.4 million people, including 12.2 million children, live in these homes.1

Link

And things aren't nearly as bad as in the 50's.

Just sayin...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Jenab » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 07:47:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')hy wouldn't things get nasty in the US?
Once a lot of people quit eating regularly it could easily turn nasty.
Why wouldn't it happen?
I'll bet people will riot when the gasoline gets pricey, or scarce.
There's a very thin line between civilization and chaos.
I've seen it.

I agree with you. And things have become nasty in the USA on an episodic basis. Riots are a spontaneous outbreak of transient warfare. It's transient because those who instigate it don't have the strategic depth of resources to keep going. It would not be wise to let groups prone to riot have such resources; they would not then become peaceful and productive citizens. What keeps these kinds of people poor are their own mental and moral shortcomings, and any resources you give them will be turned either to vice or to weapons to be used in crimes and in the next riot.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Revi » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 09:03:14

Here in Maine there are a lot of people with no hope. 4 young 19 year old men with no jobs took to robbing camps and homes recently and were caught. They think that they may be involved in 60 incidents and home invasions. I know these kids and they were not the type you would think of as criminals.

That's the really scary part. These weren't the people you would think of. There aren't many people left to defend civility anymore. Not around here. They are all white and three of them are high school grads. They were the kind of kids who did the work, participated in activities, etc.

I saw a movie called Devils Playground recently. Kids who were raised Amish turn into meth dealers who are involved in shootouts with other Amish dope dealers within a year. Their culture didn't protect them from this at all. There is a very thin line between civilization and chaos.

http://www.npr.org/programs/morning/fea ... may/amish/
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 10:13:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')I'll bet people will riot when the gasoline gets pricey, or scarce.



Can you define more precisely what constitutes "pricey" and "scarce" and which people will riot, what constitutes a "riot", etc. Thanks.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 10:27:29

Revi, in addition to a neighborhood watch I think there should be some form of social worker program set up to try to keep people from going postal in the first place. You'd think that would work better in a small town where everyone knows eachother's name and is more aware of the larger context behind people's bad behavior. This would be the "hearts and minds" part of Transition Town movement, but there are already certainly frameworks for that sort of thing, via local government and church groups. Seems to me that turning inward, erecting boobytraps and armor cladding is, in a way, a symbol of the failure of community. Not that these vandals shouldn't be primarily accountable, but once you go down the road of seeing the neighbors as threats, then any hope of getting through the larger tapestry of energy descent as a group is gone forever. Then you're left with nothing but a John Wesley Rawles Patriots outlook on life, of fighting to the last man standing.

Image

I know that's not in your makeup, Revi, with your past experience in the peace corp, etc... So think about it.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 12:11:31

I'm sorry Mos but did you see yesterdays news?

Military Psychiatrist kills 13, wounds 30??? In Fort Hood, which in many ways simulates a small town with a relatively homogeneous population?

Wasn't Malsovich (sp?) a Psychiatrist?


Wifes a LSCSW plus a Psychoanalyst. The Psychoanalyst training is 7 additional years after the Masters, and more if you want a PhD. Then they are in constant supervision themselves, forever. A Psychiatrist is just a MD with some special training in the brain. A Psychologist has more behavioral training. If you want someone to really work with people, who can work with people a LSCSW probably is better than a Psych.

You are really, really kidding yourself if you think that counseling, no matter who is doing it, can do any more than help the occasional person here and there. I know others will disagree but after 20 years of too close observation that is my opinion.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 13:23:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')You are really, really kidding yourself if you think that counseling, no matter who is doing it, can do any more than help the occasional person here and there. I know others will disagree but after 20 years of too close observation that is my opinion.


I'm not just talking about people going postal. There will always be some psychopaths out there who are just bad seeds or too far gone for intervention. But I'm talking about the kind of thing you read in the local police blotter. Stuff like petty theft and vandalism like what happened to Revi. It's going to be the low-level stuff that happens first, and with the most frequency. If you can take people who are otherwise on the right side of the law and try to instill in them a more constructive mindset to navigate through TSHTF, then maybe it would help.

But to write everybody off now and head for the bunker, well, it will just insure more zombies to have to mow down in the end. If you think that's the best path forward, be my guest.
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Re: Violent Cutback Level (VCL)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Nov 2009, 13:50:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
But to write everybody off now and head for the bunker, well, it will just insure more zombies to have to mow down in the end. If you think that's the best path forward, be my guest.


Frankly I don't know what to do. So I'm not advocating, I'm commenting.

A few years ago when kids were little I was in the park with them. This little girl comes over and sits down and starts telling me here story, about 7 or 8 years old. Sweet kid. She really likes school but can't go much. She has to stay home and take care of her Mom, Grandmom, and assorted aunts and uncles and etc. They are all sick and do "medicine." I ask who is with her today and she points out some 35'ish woman 3/4 zonked out on a park bench. It's her Aunt. She's glad shes around so she has someone who can help her.

Ya just wanna tear your heart out.

Big cities like here in Philly typically have >50% drop out rates. My girl went through the city system and had a pretty good ride. We didn't want to put her in a private school. The multicultural experience will do her well in the future. But, she is bright and got into a really good "magnet" high school. Her grade and middle schools were very good by City standards. But, that being said, I was pretty darn disappointed with the teachers. One was a 50'ish zombie/kabuki/weirdo with 0000000000000 common sense. Another was crippled and would assign kids to get her out of the class in case of fire (2nd grade I think.) There is a guy at my church who we are close to putting out because of his unruly and aggressive and threatening behavior, he is a HS science teacher.

So I am skeptical about social engineering. The place we can do the most good is with the little ones and we fail miserably there.

With no sarcasim I think the most effective social engineering we do is when we incarcerate people and then they can learn from their elder in jail. Number 2 after that is the military.
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