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THE Glenn Beck Thread (merged)

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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby Lore » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 22:18:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')I'm glad you're interested in Lindzen's resume and his "opinions", he should write a paper on them and have them published, don't you think? As far as the IPCC, his beef about the conclusions is that they didn't match what he thought they should, pure and simple.


Yeah...we shouldn't actually talk about his science where he blows up the entire modelers wet dreams, should we? What was it you say you wanted? Oh yeah...an actual paper...sure....

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/sem ... l.2009.pdf


Like I said, he publishes pretty safe stuff, but not without controversy.

This from RealClimate Comments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, it is rare that you wind up with an outright refutation of a published paper in the scientific literature. Rather, what usually happens is that questions are raised about the data or methodology of the paper. Such is the case with Lindzen’s use of ERBE data. The published work is an improvement [edit] It is still not clear if he is using the most correct version of the ERBE data, particularly since things look very different from Wong et al.
Gavin and James Annan have raised questions about why Lindzen is comparing to AMIP rather than CMIP simulations, which would be the more appropriate comparison. No response from Lindzen. See:

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2009/ ... -choi.html

And Chris Colose has done an excellent post that bears on why Lindzen is certainly wrong:

http://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2009/1 ... iting-cff/

Finally, you asked for confidence levels. I commend to you:

http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/p ... natgeo.pdf

This details most of the independent lines of evidence–all of which favor a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees per doubling–and none of which support a sensitivity as low as 2 degrees per doubling with any confidence.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby americandream » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 22:19:27

Oh please, Lindzen, the poster boy of Thatcherite free market burn all your can fossil fuelled sub- primetopia. :lol: 8O :shock:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')I'm glad you're interested in Lindzen's resume and his "opinions", he should write a paper on them and have them published, don't you think? As far as the IPCC, his beef about the conclusions is that they didn't match what he thought they should, pure and simple.


Yeah...we shouldn't actually talk about his science where he blows up the entire modelers wet dreams, should we? What was it you say you wanted? Oh yeah...an actual paper...sure....

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/sem ... l.2009.pdf
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby shortonsense » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 22:51:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')This from RealClimate Comments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, it is rare that you wind up with an outright refutation of a published paper in the scientific literature. Rather, what usually happens is that questions are raised about the data or methodology of the paper. Such is the case with Lindzen’s use of ERBE data. The published work is an improvement [edit] It is still not clear if he is using the most correct version of the ERBE data, particularly since things look very different from Wong et al.
Gavin and James Annan have raised questions about why Lindzen is comparing to AMIP rather than CMIP simulations, which would be the more appropriate comparison. No response from Lindzen. See:

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2009/ ... -choi.html

And Chris Colose has done an excellent post that bears on why Lindzen is certainly wrong:

http://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2009/1 ... iting-cff/

Finally, you asked for confidence levels. I commend to you:

http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/p ... natgeo.pdf

This details most of the independent lines of evidence–all of which favor a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees per doubling–and none of which support a sensitivity as low as 2 degrees per doubling with any confidence.


2 blogs, and an article of uncertain origin ( I don't know what Review is, a magazine, a "Review" prior to publication? ).

Any chance you can find some actual peer reviewed science? That what our local "expert" seems to think is really mostly what matters, and Lindzen certainly has been doing that his entire adult life. Bloggers just...don't quite stack up...honestly.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby shortonsense » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 22:53:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'O')h please, Lindzen, the poster boy of Thatcherite free market burn all your can fossil fuelled sub- primetopia. :lol: 8O :shock:


Got anyone with a resume as good to dispute him with, or the science to refute his? So far we've got 2 blogs and an article of unknown quality.

Science isn't run by consensus, so him being a minority opinion certainly doesn't matter.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby Lore » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 23:09:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')This from RealClimate Comments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, it is rare that you wind up with an outright refutation of a published paper in the scientific literature. Rather, what usually happens is that questions are raised about the data or methodology of the paper. Such is the case with Lindzen’s use of ERBE data. The published work is an improvement [edit] It is still not clear if he is using the most correct version of the ERBE data, particularly since things look very different from Wong et al.
Gavin and James Annan have raised questions about why Lindzen is comparing to AMIP rather than CMIP simulations, which would be the more appropriate comparison. No response from Lindzen. See:

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2009/ ... -choi.html

And Chris Colose has done an excellent post that bears on why Lindzen is certainly wrong:

http://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2009/1 ... iting-cff/

Finally, you asked for confidence levels. I commend to you:

http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/p ... natgeo.pdf

This details most of the independent lines of evidence–all of which favor a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees per doubling–and none of which support a sensitivity as low as 2 degrees per doubling with any confidence.


2 blogs, and an article of uncertain origin ( I don't know what Review is, a magazine, a "Review" prior to publication? ).

Any chance you can find some actual peer reviewed science? That what our local "expert" seems to think is really mostly what matters, and Lindzen certainly has been doing that his entire adult life. Bloggers just...don't quite stack up...honestly.


I'd rather try to figure out how this study as you and Monckton would suggest blows up AGW theory? The assertion here is that climate sensitivity equal to the doubling of CO2 should be calculated at around 2 degrees not 3 degrees?

By the way the questions are coming from climate scientists. To ask a question doesn't require peer-review.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby americandream » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 23:13:28

I once knew many great and incomparable resumes on Wall Street. Fortunately I wasn't gullible enough to buy the vacuum cleaners they came peddling at my front door. :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'O')h please, Lindzen, the poster boy of Thatcherite free market burn all your can fossil fuelled sub- primetopia. :lol: 8O :shock:


Got anyone with a resume as good to dispute him with, or the science to refute his? So far we've got 2 blogs and an article of unknown quality.

Science isn't run by consensus, so him being a minority opinion certainly doesn't matter.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby shortonsense » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 23:25:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')I'd rather try to figure out how this study as you and Monckton would suggest blows up AGW theory? The assertion here is that climate sensitivity equal to the doubling of CO2 should be calculated at around 2 degrees not 3 degrees?

By the way the questions are coming from climate scientists. To ask a question doesn't require peer-review.


Questions are good. Any good idea, put forth by anyone, should be subject to them.

Apparently the assumption with models is that increased CO2 traps more heat within the atmopshere, that it can't radiate away from the planet. The work Lindzen has is data showing that the planet is more in equilibrium, that as it warms, it actually radiates more, which is the exact opposite of the assumption in the models. Because his work is based on data, rather than just models, it really, really matters. It means that the possibility of a "relief valve" for the heat might be another natural process which hasn't been accounted for in the computer models.

Assuming its true, which isn't ever a given in science until other scientists have gotten a clear shot at it.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby americandream » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 23:35:22

If the truth be known, neither Thatcher's nor Gore's pets have the foggiest clue. They each have as mch clue as the geniuses who devised those fail safe mathematical trading models that subsequently cost us many trillions. That being said, I don't think paving the planet into a super Walmart carpark is the brightest idea, do you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')I'd rather try to figure out how this study as you and Monckton would suggest blows up AGW theory? The assertion here is that climate sensitivity equal to the doubling of CO2 should be calculated at around 2 degrees not 3 degrees?

By the way the questions are coming from climate scientists. To ask a question doesn't require peer-review.


Questions are good. Any good idea, put forth by anyone, should be subject to them.

Apparently the assumption with models is that increased CO2 traps more heat within the atmopshere, that it can't radiate away from the planet. The work Lindzen has is data showing that the planet is more in equilibrium, that as it warms, it actually radiates more, which is the exact opposite of the assumption in the models. Because his work is based on data, rather than just models, it really, really matters. It means that the possibility of a "relief valve" for the heat might be another natural process which hasn't been accounted for in the computer models.

Assuming its true, which isn't ever a given in science until other scientists have gotten a clear shot at it.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby Lore » Sun 01 Nov 2009, 23:52:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')I'd rather try to figure out how this study as you and Monckton would suggest blows up AGW theory? The assertion here is that climate sensitivity equal to the doubling of CO2 should be calculated at around 2 degrees not 3 degrees?

By the way the questions are coming from climate scientists. To ask a question doesn't require peer-review.


Questions are good. Any good idea, put forth by anyone, should be subject to them.

Apparently the assumption with models is that increased CO2 traps more heat within the atmopshere, that it can't radiate away from the planet. The work Lindzen has is data showing that the planet is more in equilibrium, that as it warms, it actually radiates more, which is the exact opposite of the assumption in the models. Because his work is based on data, rather than just models, it really, really matters. It means that the possibility of a "relief valve" for the heat might be another natural process which hasn't been accounted for in the computer models.

Assuming its true, which isn't ever a given in science until other scientists have gotten a clear shot at it.


So the point here, is that there really is no point in making the assumption that this somehow discredits AGW as Monckton pontificated. Lindzen is only trying to suggest that the climate will not warm as fast from AGW as previously theorized and a doubling of CO2 as had been previously theorized, but it will still heat up. Further more that some mystery process exists,( i.e., once again the IRIS effect) which we can't account for will pop its cork and things will be all better?

I fail to see where this changes the game?
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby HeckuvaJob » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 00:24:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')he beauty of science is, it doesn't matter where it comes from, as long as it holds up to the beating of other scientists. So rather than a simple ad hominem on his alleged paycheck, can you refute his science?

Actually, the first step in evaluating any drug info is to find out who funded the study. Please keep in mind that:

1. results can be massaged by statisticians to provide the desired outcome
2. often the skeptics aren't as well-funded as the industry scientists and consequently, nobody ever hears their "beatings". For instance, have you ever seen a commercial on television advertising a new drug? Ever seen one refuting a new drug?
3. when massaging the numbers won't work and eliminating undesirable patient populations still won't cut it - some studies are prematurely terminated and never published (a decision made by those funding it).
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby shortonsense » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 00:32:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Assuming its true, which isn't ever a given in science until other scientists have gotten a clear shot at it.


So the point here, is that there really is no point in making the assumption that this somehow discredits AGW as Monckton pontificated.


Oh no...thats not what I said. Science requires someone else to come along now and refute the newest evidence. You don't get to dismiss it just because it disagree's with prior science, or groupthink. We aren't talking about some amateur hobbyist here with a degree in basket weaving who one afternoon decided to publish something and just happened to get it through a peer review process, we are talking about an academic with as much experience as anyone else on the planet in climate science, a member of the Academy of Science in the flesh, who can be counted on to understand a wider swath of this information than nearly anyone else.

To shoot him down, you need someone else to review his logic and data, and decide on the specific thing he improperly deduced or concluded which led to another improper conclusion which leads to his final conclusion. Sometimes, the data itself is bad, has been cherry picked, maybe massaged too heavily. Its how the hockey stick got busted back to a "gee its okay maybe for recent stuff, but not so good for old stuff".

But until you have someone qualified to tear it down from within, he gets to run around waving it as proof of nearly anything he wants in the meantime. Can it be as bad as the cold fusion gang, or the cloning guy who got busted for bad science? Sure...could be. But the same applies to everyone...maybe this is the evidence which shows that the climate modelers have been full of crap....sure....this sword cuts both ways.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
') Lindzen is only trying to suggest that the climate will not warm as fast from AGW as previously theorized and a doubling of CO2 as had been previously theorized, but it will still heat up.


True. It will heat up so little it doesn't matter. 1F+ perhaps? Which is perfectly within the natural variability demonstrated by ice cores, and all those other proxies. In other words, the same thing the planet has been doing for the last 200,000 years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')I fail to see where this changes the game?


It depends on who is right. If Lindzen is right, the models are all wrong, and the predictions of how hot the planet gets are bogus. If Lindzen is wrong, we go back to arguing about how much is natural, how much isn't, which is where the argument seems to be prior to Lindzens newest stuff. What Lindzen has attacked, if correct, is pretty damning to the accuracy of all the models represented by the 11 graphs in his paper. Maybe there are some which don't make the assumption he is attacking? He references like 11 or so? Maybe there are really 20, and the other 9 aren't quite as corrupted by this angle?
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby americandream » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 00:43:19

Would you still trust Lindzen, shortnosense, given the company he keeps and their track record at forecasting anything to date, no matter how convincing initially or well supported by glowing resumes? Seriously.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby shortonsense » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 01:20:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')ould you still trust Lindzen, shortnosense, given the company he keeps and their track record at forecasting anything to date, no matter how convincing initially or well supported by glowing resumes? Seriously.


Guilt by association!! Hey, if someone wants to lump me in with a member of the Academy of Science because of our common characteristics, boy, I can live with that! Talk about feeling all puffed up over nothing more than the company you reference!! [smilie=eusa_dance.gif] [smilie=eusa_dance.gif]
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby americandream » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 01:38:13

Yes, yes, yes short, I know all that fine and noble stuff. Problem is these fools have a habit of getting it humungously wrong, then turning to me for a bailout. The economy is fine. I can outlive fcukups with the economy. The climate however is another matter. I'm not so sure about that. I'ld feel damned stupid were I to gve them the green light to pave my planet and then woke one morning to find my atmosphere on the way to Mars. See my predicament. Once bitten....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')ould you still trust Lindzen, shortnosense, given the company he keeps and their track record at forecasting anything to date, no matter how convincing initially or well supported by glowing resumes? Seriously.


Guilt by association!! Hey, if someone wants to lump me in with a member of the Academy of Science because of our common characteristics, boy, I can live with that! Talk about feeling all puffed up over nothing more than the company you reference!! [smilie=eusa_dance.gif] [smilie=eusa_dance.gif]
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby rangerone314 » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 09:58:01

Why not build two identical large air tight domes with temperature & other sensors in them?

One dome has standard amount of O2 and N2, other has higher amount of CO2 & methane.

Then measure the temperature differences.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby Lore » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 10:14:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'O')h no...thats not what I said. Science requires someone else to come along now and refute the newest evidence. You don't get to dismiss it just because it disagree's with prior science, or groupthink. We aren't talking about some amateur hobbyist here with a degree in basket weaving who one afternoon decided to publish something and just happened to get it through a peer review process, we are talking about an academic with as much experience as anyone else on the planet in climate science, a member of the Academy of Science in the flesh, who can be counted on to understand a wider swath of this information than nearly anyone else.


Exactly, which is why we shouldn't buy into every latest study pro or con until it has had a chance to be evaluated. Gadflies like Monckton though are quick to point to any line of evidence as the final answer when it serves their purpose. We're just seeing the focus on a single, very questionable result at the expense of a mountain of evidence that contradicts it.

Lindzen's credentials are no greater or less then many of the other scientists working on climate studies of which have published work along the same lines. He just gets more press for being the contrarian.

I'll await the published response, however on the face of it, Lindzen’s CO2 sensitivity is a factor of 4 lower than that favored by about a dozen separate lines of evidence, all of which favor 3 degrees per doubling. His results are not robust since they cannot be replicated if you use other datasets. As mentioned the data set used is questionable and has not been answered as to why it was used in the first place.
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Re: Monckton On Glenn Beck Today 10/30

Postby americandream » Mon 02 Nov 2009, 15:39:33

Exactly. I find it remarkable that these experts continue to argue endlessly over the finer points of a narrow issue when physical evidence is everywhere to be seen. It reminds me of the free market debate at the fall of the USSR, complete with experts toting impressive resumes, as the global asset market went into overdrive, perilously so.

[quote="pstarr"]GW theory is a distraction. The oceans and atmosphere are receptacles (technically sinks, just another resource) that are filling with the entropic waste-products of industrial--CO2, DDE, thylates, mercury, etc. Thermodynamics in action.

Earth is finite. Evidence abounds that we are reaching resource and energy limits. GW could be considered the canary in the coal mine reminding us of a finite planet, as could fisheries depletion, aquifer draw down, copper or phosphate depletion, etc.[/quote
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