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Credit crunch impacts on production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sun 06 Sep 2009, 21:06:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')t's only hilarious to you because you are not looking far enough down the road. NG rigs are not like oil rigs.

Yes. So what?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')'m really tired of spelling it out for you OF so I just wont.

In other words, you actually don't know what to say.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')t least others who come in to read this stuff might just take away something you are failing to see.

The entire NG and Oil industry is in DEEP TROUBLE if these prices remain where they are. The economy is in DEEP TROUBLE if the industry cannot recover from this fact. You have failed in your classic cornucopian outlook to understand the implications of what is going on. You can run around screaming all day long about the daily moves in numbers but that does not change the macro picture which will drive what happens in the future.

The industry cannot move fast enough, nor does it have the capital to do so. It's happening right in front of your eyes, but all you can do is count rigs.

Here's a nice little page for you to read every day:
http://www.rigzone.com/news/finance.asp
Oil and gas companies are raising money, being extended lines of credit, selling share to raise money, getting loans from banks, etc etc etc. Sorry, nice try! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sun 06 Sep 2009, 23:27:59

Yes OF they are raising money and finding oil and spending capital etc. I do not, nor have I denied that. What you are failing at in your argument is the dismissal of the magnitude of the spending going on now versus what was going on a year or two ago. There is no refuting 20-30% less capital spending as an industry. It does not result in greater production down the road, it WILL result in less. The industry cannot pivot quickly with increased prices and this will have an impact which you choose to ignore.

This is typical of your mantra with the economy as well. The O&G industry is in trouble, maybe not terminally, but trouble none the less. You choose to refuse to see it and that's just fine. I'll continue to balance your cornucopian game with a dose of reality now and then.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sun 06 Sep 2009, 23:32:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he article doesn't say these oil blocks aren't being developed, it says they are being developed! :lol: That supports my case, not yours! :lol:


I never claimed that these areas would not get developed. I posted that link to show that there IS negative impact from the global recession. I'd say that article provides some evidence of just that. You know, poring over every single word of a link/article anyone can usually find a sentence or two which counters any point. SO WHAT?

You missed the main point of the article and I stand by posting it as a link to help support my point

Sheesh.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Mon 07 Sep 2009, 12:43:10

More rosy outlooks on the industry...ALL IS WELL!!!!! :o

Morningstar Industry report
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 09 Oct 2009, 22:06:32

US rig count still trending upwards. Even natural gas rig counts are going back up.

>>> US rig count gains another 17 units <<<
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Tue 20 Oct 2009, 16:00:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '.') . . Otherwise known as, "When the economy gets better, drilling and exploration pick up again. . . "

Well I hate to say I told ya so, but I told ya so.

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]OPEC's Drilling Projects Moving Amid Price Rise
by Spencer Swartz |Dow Jones Newswires|Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Several longer-term OPEC drilling projects that had been put on hold during the low point of the recession are now moving forward, in a sign that rising oil prices and recovering demand are breathing life back into drilling investment, the oil and gas group's chief said Tuesday.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said seven oil projects totaling 1.2 million barrels a day in various OPEC nations had re-started development in the past weeks.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 00:13:09

This is nothing more than corporate doublespeak for "we're in deep shiite now boyz, and we cant continue as before". Don't let OF or any other corny attempt to persuade you otherwise. I'd also point to the cratering profits of the majors this week as further evidence of industry "problems".


http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp ... 921&hmpn=1

"ConocoPhillips CEO James Mulva signaled a dramatic shift in course for the nation's third-largest oil company Wednesday, saying that after years of bulking up through acquisitions, it is now focused on being a smaller, leaner business that takes better care of its shareholders."
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Postby Homesteader » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 00:34:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '.') . . Otherwise known as, "When the economy gets better, drilling and exploration pick up again. . . "

Well I hate to say I told ya so, but I told ya so.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 20:41:43

Meanwhile, the US rig count continues to climb.

>>> Number of active rigs increase by 21 <<<
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 20:45:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')his is nothing more than corporate doublespeak for "we're in deep shiite now boyz, and we cant continue as before". Don't let OF or any other corny attempt to persuade you otherwise. I'd also point to the cratering profits of the majors this week as further evidence of industry "problems".


http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp ... 921&hmpn=1

"ConocoPhillips CEO James Mulva signaled a dramatic shift in course for the nation's third-largest oil company Wednesday, saying that after years of bulking up through acquisitions, it is now focused on being a smaller, leaner business that takes better care of its shareholders."

From your own link:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ulva signaled Wednesday that the evolution likely will include a greater focus on the company's exploration and production business and less on refining.

Remember that discussion several months ago about how most of the canceled and delayed projects were either natural gas or refining projects, and that only a few actually involved oil production? By posting this link, you have once again provided evidence against your own claim.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 20:49:50

Posted back on July 17, to refresh your memory.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') had a feeling you might post this. This list is a great example of why I think all this talk about curtailment of energy projects is one of the most over-hyped things in recent memory. --snip-- All you had to do was read over the list to determine that most of them don't even have anything to do with the production of oil - and a few of them could very well mean that less oil will be consumed because they aren't even energy projects.*sigh* :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 20:52:42

OF,

You really dont understand how corporate leaders operate do you. That statement from the CEO is complete doublespeak to pump and maintain shareholders confidence. It means absolutely nothing else and it isnt connected at all to the bottom line factual events which are being played out in the oil and NG industry. Companies are SHRINIKING. Profits are DECLINING and they are desperate to dull that fact with investors.

That link fully and completely supports my ongoing and non spun point that the industry is in trouble. You can only characterize it some other way by SPINNING it inside of your cornucopial playground. You completely lose any credibility when you do this and those of us who understand how reality works vice some fantasy land get it.

Any corny attempt by you to spin this otherwise will be met swiftly by my large BS flag.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 20:55:28

I never said there was going to be an Oil crisis. And yes when the price of oil has more than doubled since last fall I'd expect that those cancelled projects would be brought back when economically viable. So what? Did you think I posted those stories thinking those particular projects would be forever lost?

Where did you ever see me say anything of the sort anywhere??

Stop mischaracterizing my posts with your corny BS please.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 20:59:41

From the link I posted just above: "Some will say what we're doing essentially is that we're shrinking to grow," Mulva said during a conference call to discuss the company's quarterly earnings. "That would be a fair assessment."

No Expletive deleted. Sherlock and its a completely a bogus statement. Any company that shrinks doesn't "grow" It simply shrinks. Which means to me less assets, less capital, and less people to do the business of that company. Anyone who analyzes Con Phillips will see what complete and utter Expletive deleted. this statement was. It's nothing more than pure and simple damage control.

But you go ahead and try to spin it some other corny way. Typical.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 21:00:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')hat statement from the CEO is complete doublespeak to pump and maintain shareholders confidence.

Are you trying to tell us this guy is lying that he's going to reduce the company's refining business and focus on exploration and production?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')t means absolutely nothing else and it isnt connected at all to the bottom line factual events which are being played out in the oil and NG industry. Companies are SHRINIKING. Profits are DECLINING and they are desperate to dull that fact with investors.

This made no sense whatsoever. If this CEO is telling the shareholders that he needs to slim the company down to focus on exploration and production and get rid of unprofitable assets, that tells me he is telling the shareholders that things are amiss and he needs to do something. There is no "dulling" going on here, he is actually saying there is something wrong and he needs to do something about it.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 21:02:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'C')iting lists like this as evidence of some upcoming oil crisis is proof, in my book, that peakers are very low on the critical-analysis-skills scale. All you had to do was read over the list to determine that most of them don't even have anything to do with the production of oil - and a few of them could very well mean that less oil will be consumed because they aren't even energy projects.*sigh* :roll:


Maybe you should actually bother to READ and comprehend the posts of those with whom you choose to discuss this stuff.
Please show me WHERE I or any other Peaker here has said there is an "upcoming oil crisis". I'll wait.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 21:05:22

CEO's lie all the time, if you haven't had experience with that than I cant help you.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 21:07:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') never said there was going to be an Oil crisis. And yes when the price of oil has more than doubled since last fall I'd expect that those cancelled projects would be brought back when economically viable. So what? Did you think I posted those stories thinking those particular projects would be forever lost?

Yes, in fact you have repeatedly said in this thread you thought these canceled and delayed projects would have serious negative implications, both in the short term and long term. For example is this post of yours on Feb. 13. I can find many more like this. In fact you've spent most of your time in this thread trying to tell us the oil industry would be irrevocably damaged by the financial crisis.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'R')ock,

I agree, but Im just trying to post the links to the pieces which I think have some merit.

Here is another, although I think Phil Flynn is an idiot also, he does appear to see what I am seeing. There is a huge headwind in delayed projects and spending developing right now which is going to have serious implications the minute the economy is PERCIEVED to be coming back.

Potential supply crunch.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Oil/ ... 7L20090212
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 21:10:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'P')lease show me WHERE I or any other Peaker here has said there is an "upcoming oil crisis". I'll wait.

Right here: Page 3, posted on November 13:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')necdotaly I'm starting to see a lot of commentary on short term project development and financing being "safe", but longer term, into next year is appearing to be in jeopardy.

It's something that is going to be held closely to the vest with the financial turmoil going on. No one is freely going to admit they are cancelling production projects for fear of their stock prices taking a hit.

I think we all knew that a dive in price like we have seen is going to have a huge impact on the near term future in the oil patch. Not surprising at all to me.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 31 Oct 2009, 21:12:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'P')lease show me WHERE I or any other Peaker here has said there is an "upcoming oil crisis". I'll wait.

Another one, posted on February 12:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'L')ong term production "damaged" according to Merrill Lynch.....

http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=31507& ... &mset=1011
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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