[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shorty', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('like_the_dinosaurs', '
')If you think techno fixes will save the day, good for you but why waste your time here.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s you can see from the above chart, the mortgage market is the government which raises the question, why do we even need banks if 95 percent of the mortgage market is directly subsidized by the government? We don’t and certainly not at the too big to fail level. If anything, we should get on the move to start breaking up the banks and renewing a new stronger form of Glass-Steagall. Until the government moves in this direction the current financial deep capture will continue and will siphon off the life blood of the real economy like a leech.

[roccman]

Another slow crasher joins the fast crash team...

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2011/10/s ... ed-at.html

[Tanada]

For most of the time I have been here I have been a slow/soft crasher because I always expected steps towards mitigation to be taken.

At this point I am starting to feel like a fast hard crash is likely because I watched this video that Pops mentioned elsewhere,
http://youtu.be/dLCsMRr7hAg

The world is on a tipping point, riots are breaking out in many countries all over even though the media is obsessed with Ukraine and little else. Prices are persistently high but not high enough for the oil majors to continue developing the supply we are consuming. The average person on the street blames it all on politics which means they only look to politicians for solutions.

I am getting a very bad feeling about what is about to happen.

[Plantagenet]

IMHO, the world is already in a soft, slow crash that started in 2009. We are five years into Kunstler's "Long Emergency."

IMHO, There is no sign of an imminent fast crash---the riots and citizen rebellions now in Ukraine and Venezuela are just more of the same---we've had similar economic riots in Greece and Arab Spring riots and rebellions for years now.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')MHO, the world is already in a soft, slow crash that started in 2009. We are five years into Kunstler's "Long Emergency."

IMHO, There is no sign of an imminent fast crash---the riots and citizen rebellions now in Ukraine and Venezuela are just more of the same---we've had similar economic riots in Greece and Arab Spring riots and rebellions for years now.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 't')he riots in Venezuela are the kind of thing I see as a fuse, like the way the Tunisia incident set off he Arab Spring. There are a lot of unhappy people on this planet, poor people with limited food. People that can't afford food ....

[Subjectivist]

Remember a few years ago how much trouble there was in Mexico over corn prices? Those weren't starving poor, but people who saw more and more of there income going to the food budget. Same thing in Greece. Same thing in Egypt depending on whom you believe. Google Venezuela food shortage and you will find plenty of stories about lack of cheap food ticking off the population, including the middle class college crowd.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', ' ')Google Venezuela food shortage and you will find plenty of stories about lack of cheap food ticking off the population, including the middle class college crowd.

[Plantagenet]

“If it happens that the human race doesn't make it, then the fact that we were here once will not be altered, that once upon a time we peopled this astonishing blue planet, and wondered intelligently at everything about it and the other things who lived here with us on it, and that we celebrated the beauty of it in music and art, architecture, literature, and dance, and that there were times when we approached something godlike in our abilities and aspirations. We emerged out of depthless mystery, and back into mystery we returned,and in the end the mystery is all there is.”

― James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century


---------

IMHO we are seeing a slow soft crash punctuated by various crises and brief hard fast crashes. Its mostly a gradual decline, albeit with some sharp drops at various times.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')IMHO we are seeing a slow soft crash punctuated by various crises and brief hard fast crashes. Its mostly a gradual decline, albeit with some sharp drops at various times.

[Subjectivist]

Sounds an awful lot like the evolutionist theory of punctuated equilibrium where sudden shocks are the main driver of all change.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his paper seems pretty believable; The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ocial unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These observations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments,
but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent and increasing global social disruption.

[Pops]

History seems to me like a pool with a bunch of kids splashing around making waves that converge from all directions. Sometimes the waves cancel each other out and what one might guess would be a momentous splash comes to nothing. But then sometimes several ripples from different directions amplify one another to make one rogue wave that with results much greater than the constituent ripples would indicate.

There are so many kids in the pool it's impossible for me to know their names or even grasp the wave patterns at any given moment, let alone forecast some future soaking.

I've mostly been a slow crasher nonetheless, overly optimistic I guess. Although on odd Tuesdays I think about converging ripples making a big splash. I am pretty convinced we've reached peak net energy in addition to peak conventional oil - much of the additions to what's now know as "All Liquids" are not as energetic as crude oil ("refinery gain" contains zero energy, LOL) and for that matter I don't believe some "liquids" even enter the crude oil stream at all, propane & propylene for example, and NGPLs come from . . . natural gas - not oil.

But no matter, if NOCs are finding investment as unprofitable as the IOCs seem to be (and I can't see how they could be any more efficient) then decline is just around the corner and the longer and deeper the lack of investment the sharper the drop off into the deep end.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'H')istory seems to me like a pool with a bunch of kids splashing around making waves that converge from all directions. Sometimes the waves cancel each other out and what one might guess would be a momentous splash comes to nothing. But then sometimes several ripples from different directions amplify one another to make one rogue wave that with results much greater than the constituent ripples would indicate.

There are so many kids in the pool it's impossible for me to know their names or even grasp the wave patterns at any given moment, let alone forecast some future soaking.

I've mostly been a slow crasher nonetheless, overly optimistic I guess. Although on odd Tuesdays I think about converging ripples making a big splash. I am pretty convinced we've reached peak net energy in addition to peak conventional oil - much of the additions to what's now know as "All Liquids" are not as energetic as crude oil ("refinery gain" contains zero energy, LOL) and for that matter I don't believe some "liquids" even enter the crude oil stream at all, propane & propylene for example, and NGPLs come from . . . natural gas - not oil.

But no matter, if NOCs are finding investment as unprofitable as the IOCs seem to be (and I can't see how they could be any more efficient) then decline is just around the corner and the longer and deeper the lack of investment the sharper the drop off into the deep end.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')MHO, the world is already in a soft, slow crash that started in 2009. We are five years into Kunstler's "Long Emergency."

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') have only managed half the video.