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China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 21:33:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'w')tf! What would it cost if it were sold in the US, without tarriffs?
Probably around $20-25k give or take, although I doubt they would use the F3 since it's just a carbon copy of the last gen Corolla.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')YD CEO Wang Chuanfu expects they will lower the price of the F3DM to around 109,800 yuan ($16,062) once they start building them in larger numbers, which should convince some buyers.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 21:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrGray', 'N')ice reminder NeoP. And I agree completely.

You know, I have trouble believing any of this battery BS when my latest and greatest cell phone won't even keep a charge for more than a few calls. I realise it's a poor anecdotal observation, but just saying.
I suggest less talk and more research. ;)
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 21:38:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')IIRC they've gone from ~$1500/kWh and 1000 cycles to 70% capacity in the earlly 2000s to ~$400/kWh and 5000 cycles to 70% capacity. Five times the lifespan for a quarter of the price seems pretty good to me. That's what, a penny per mile, assuming we take 'em out and toss 'em off a cliff at 70% capacity, even though they still have plenty of life left in 'em?


Guess what, an empty gas tank is essentially $0 a mile to purchase (whatever the cost of the sheet metal is), vs. the cost of the battery pack, and that's what counts the most. You're buying energy "capacity" over the life of the car and people just aren't used to it. That's why you have Project Better Place etc... pushing lease models for the battery pack.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 21:53:47

That may count the most to some, but not all. If people were really that adverse to a greater purchase price, they would seldom buy new, which is way more expensive than used, higher running costs (maintenance and fuel) be damned. I'm not saying that all people are like this, but there's certainly a subset off the population willing to pay $10k more upfront so they can pay ~5-10c/mile less.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 22:05:14

Another bubble in the making. EV's made in China and financed with sub-prime loans, EU grants and with tax write offs thrown in for good measure. Wall Streets next wet dream :lol:
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby kjmclark » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 22:07:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'H')old your horses buddy, I don't know how many can afford this gizmo ~ £30,000/$50000
LCD 46 inch TV's were £2000 three years ago, they are now £500. WE all kn ow how economics work. These cars will cost no more and probably a lot less than petrol cars in a very, very short time

WOW - so the Chinese have figured out how to use photolithography to make cars! That is impressive! 8O

Come on KevO. personal attack deleted :roll:

Don't be the class smartarse; say something .

So let me try that again. And SeaGypsy can't figure out that I did say something.

As someone else pointed out, electronics keep dropping in price because manufacturers can use photolithography to continually decrease the feature sizes and get more on a chip. The continuing increase in circuit density leads to increases in computing power and ability to make things like LCDs bigger and cheaper. The continuing increase in computing power has been called "Moore's law."

My point was that unless the Chinese have figured out how to make CARS that way, which they clearly have not, the same thing isn't at all likely to happen for these cars. Cars have been mass produced for about a century now, and as low an opinion as some people have of automotive engineers, those engineers are plenty smart enough to figure out how to use photolithography to make cars if that were possible. A simple understanding of the process will tell you that's not likely.

Since "Expert" KevO said "WE all kn ow how economics work.", but clearly he doesn't understand something, since cars are not circuit boards,
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Olle » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 03:28:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '[')BYD claims the battery pack is 48 kWh, not 16 kWh.

the E6 is a full sized people carrier and carries a large 48kw/hr battery pack giving a range of 400 km (249 mile), the curb weight comes in on the heavy side at 2020 kg (4453 lb)
BYD target US launch for electric cars in 2011[/quote]

Oops, that was impressive, but it also means that you need a 3-phase plug in your home. Not a major problem if you have a Villa
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 03:57:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 't')here's certainly a subset off the population willing to pay $10k more upfront so they can pay ~5-10c/mile less.


I agree there is a subset. Not sure how big it is, considering cheap gas and a depression.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby KevO » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 04:28:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '[')
Since "Expert" KevO said "WE all kn ow how economics work.", but clearly he doesn't understand something, since cars are not circuit boards, I sarcastically replied something to the effect that he doesn't know how economics works. I'll have to avoid repeating someone else's words modified for sarcasm in the future, for people who don't get it.


Sorry I forgot that you're an American and therefore and by default of nationality have no idea of the concept of irony :razz:
the phrase "WE all know how economics work" means, and I apologise for being a Brit and therefore soaked in irony, that NONE of us know how economics works, If somebody did we wouldn't be in the economic state we are currently in.
As for peak oil and climate change, we've got that rumbled. (clue - irony again)

And don't mess with an Expert sonny.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby americandream » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 04:51:02

Trying to convey irony in an international website seems rather pointless, dunnit guv'nor. I go down my local for a pint of irony, I come here to be informed, mate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '[')
Since "Expert" KevO said "WE all kn ow how economics work.", but clearly he doesn't understand something, since cars are not circuit boards, I sarcastically replied something to the effect that he doesn't know how economics works. I'll have to avoid repeating someone else's words modified for sarcasm in the future, for people who don't get it.


Sorry I forgot that you're an American and therefore and by default of nationality have no idea of the concept of irony :razz:
the phrase "WE all know how economics work" means, and I apologise for being a Brit and therefore soaked in irony, that NONE of us know how economics works, If somebody did we wouldn't be in the economic state we are currently in.
As for peak oil and climate change, we've got that rumbled. (clue - irony again)

And don't mess with an Expert sonny.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby kjmclark » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 07:16:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'S')orry I forgot that you're an American and therefore and by default of nationality have no idea of the concept of irony :razz:
the phrase "WE all know how economics work" means, and I apologise for being a Brit and therefore soaked in irony, that NONE of us know how economics works, If somebody did we wouldn't be in the economic state we are currently in.
As for peak oil and climate change, we've got that rumbled. (clue - irony again)

And don't mess with an Expert sonny.

Ohhhh! You were trying to be ironic! I'm sure you'll figure out how to do it right eventually. I think part of the problem was that instead of writing
"WE all kn ow how economics work."
Which reads as though you're dense, you might have written
"We all KNOW how economics work."
Which is spelled reasonably and puts the emphasis on the knowledge that you don't think we have, as opposed to the group you think doesn't have it.

On this side of the pond, "rumbled" sounds something like we're fighting about it, since a rumble is a fight between groups. That one didn't work either.

"And don't mess with an Expert sonny."
Yeah, forgot that one. That means a bunch of experts will meet me on the playground. I forget what expert means around here sometimes. Thanks for the reminder!
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 07:33:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')rying to convey irony in an international website seems rather pointless, dunnit guv'nor. I go down my local for a pint of irony, I come here to be informed, mate.
"guv'nor"? Dick van Dyke lives on.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 07:40:30

Anyway other being hugely skeptical at the claims of the manufacturer; I dont see any solutions to peak resourses here. No new energy sources. Shale gas is a new energy source, that is a delay in looming peak gas, deep sea oil is a newish source of oil and a mitigation on the oil down slope.

What we have here is atn the very best an energy inefficient way of replacing oil with coal, for a while, and a reason to burn through the coal that much quicker.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby janeword » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 08:41:37

Sorry folks, but electricity requires oil, gas, or coal to generate. We aren't getting near enough from wind, solar, or any other renewable. Just because the power points in your house are almost invisible doesn't mean there isn't fuel burning at the generator.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 08:48:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('janeword', 'S')orry folks, but electricity requires oil, gas, or coal to generate. We aren't getting near enough from wind, solar, or any other renewable. Just because the power points in your house are almost invisible doesn't mean there isn't fuel burning at the generator.


The cool thing about EVs is the power generation can change without turning over the entire car fleet. But you won't have electrified (personal) transport without an EV. So it's a necessary step.
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby KevO » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 11:22:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')rying to convey irony in an international website seems rather pointless, dunnit guv'nor. I go down my local for a pint of irony, I come here to be informed, mate.
"guv'nor"? Dick van Dyke lives on.


only in kiwi land
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby KevO » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 11:23:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')rying to convey irony in an international website seems rather pointless, dunnit guv'nor. I go down my local for a pint of irony, I come here to be informed, mate.
.
[/quote]


but you still couldn't resist responding could you? :P
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby KevO » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 11:24:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'S')orry I forgot that you're an American and therefore and by default of nationality have no idea of the concept of irony :razz:
the phrase "WE all know how economics work" means, and I apologise for being a Brit and therefore soaked in irony, that NONE of us know how economics works, If somebody did we wouldn't be in the economic state we are currently in.
As for peak oil and climate change, we've got that rumbled. (clue - irony again)

And don't mess with an Expert sonny.

Ohhhh! You were trying to be ironic! I'm sure you'll figure out how to do it right eventually. I think part of the problem was that instead of writing
"WE all kn ow how economics work."
Which reads as though you're dense, you might have written
"We all KNOW how economics work."
Which is spelled reasonably and puts the emphasis on the knowledge that you don't think we have, as opposed to the group you think doesn't have it.




I could sue you for publicly bullying someone with dicksleckseer
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 13:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') agree there is a subset. Not sure how big it is, considering cheap gas and a depression.
The irony is that during a recession people tend to think more about cost cutting, even if it's long run. I'm thinking it'll be similar to hybrid adoption back in 2000+. I'm curious though, how is $4/gallon a watershed moment but $3/gallon cheap? When it was under $2/gallon, sure, that was cheap, but if $4/gallon is a watershed moment, isn't $3/gallon at least on the expensive side?
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Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 13:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'A')nyway other being hugely skeptical at the claims of the manufacturer; I dont see any solutions to peak resourses here. No new energy sources. Shale gas is a new energy source, that is a delay in looming peak gas, deep sea oil is a newish source of oil and a mitigation on the oil down slope.
A large electric fleet, especially a large electric fleet with large packs, allows for a lot more renewable generating infrastructure since there are large charging windows.
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