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A bleak picture as oil production slides

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 13:08:35

This thread should be renamed SOS no evidence denials.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 13:12:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hardtootell-2', 'T')his thread should be renamed SOS no evidence denials.


Seriously, I'm just asking. People claim a 9% decline. Okay. The single largest, and best example of decline on the planet is also the one which best fits Hubberts original idea, the US. Much has been made of the greater declines than the 2% or so in the US, but a 9% decline just begs the question, where has all the REPLACEMENT production been coming from? At 9% that requires a new Saudi Arabia approximately every 1.1 years. We've been around plateau for 4 years now. Thats 4/1.1 = 3.6 new Saudi Arabia's.

I simply use the information provided and ask, where are these new Saudi Arabia's? We've acquired 3.6 of them, doesn't even the average Peaker think they might want into OPEC to flex their muscle a little?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Pops » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 21:45:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'Y')ea, you're probably right sos, everything is fine.


Are you kidding?

Not at all, your patient explanations and examples of how and why things – and I mean everything, are not only in excellent shape currently but getting unbelievably, unprecedentedly better daily – even in some cases hourly, have persuaded me to let you concentrate on spreading the good word to others without the irritation of refuting every senseless point I make.

Don't worry though, there will be others here who pay attention to your posts for a while.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 13:56:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
But it does capture the uncertainty implicit in the event. Some of us will not care at all, my gasoline costs certainly went down in 2008 regardless of crude price because I made a specific capital investment to offset operating costs.



Again gosh, I'm very very happy for you indeed that you have been able to escape the perils of an oil spike. And again I asume as global oil production deteriorates, you'll be calling fo much cake eating amonsgst the little people of the world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
How what will look? You mean, like how much a fuel cell vehicle will actually cost when they are finally available to the public? Or how economically reasonable a Prius is over a F150? Or whether or not the Volt will pay for itself in X amount of time? How fast will the electrification of transport proceed?



Mmmm yes the little people of the world have so many choices... F150 or Prius. Gosh, should I put that new Fuel Cell vehicle on my American Express? Or Mastercard?

Perhaps it might be smart to imagine a world outside of your bubble. Though the upper middle class and wealthy 1 % of the world may be inured for some time to the effects of Peak Oil, the other 99% may have some difficultues. You seem to have a hard time imagining what those difficulties might be. Dig deeper.

I'd still like to hear what you imagine the transition to be like, if its not "seamless".
Last edited by thuja on Mon 12 Oct 2009, 14:34:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 14:34:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Again gosh, I'm very very happy for you indeed that you have been able to escape the perils of an oil spike. And again I asume you'll be calling fo much cake eating amonsgst the little people of the world.


I really don't understand your confusion. I think in terms of replacing a vehicle so that my fuel costs remain the same, while allowing me to drive as many miles as before.

Don't like my solution? Then activate another one.....gas twice as much? Drive half as much. Problem solved. Random personal travel in America is staggering....everyone should do their part and do less of it. Nothing to do with your fake implications that only well off Americans are capable of such a staggering complex plan.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Mmmm yes the little people of the world have so many choices... F150 or Prius. Gosh, should I put that new Fuel Cell vehicle on my American Express? Or Mastercard?


Knock yourself out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Perhaps it might be smart to imagine a world outside of your bubble. Though the ypper middle class and wealthy 1 % of the world may be inured for some time to the effects of Peak Oil, the other 99% may have some difficultues. You seem to have a hard time imagining what those difficulties might be. Dig deeper.

I'd still like to hear what you imagine the transition to be like, if its not "seamless".


I've already volunteered what the transition might look like. Considering that it is already underway, why not pick up a paper? Read something interesting on the internet? Peak oil happened and certainly that went right on bye without people noticing much....what makes you think a transition would be much more disturbing?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 14:39:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Again gosh, I'm very very happy for you indeed that you have been able to escape the perils of an oil spike. And again I asume you'll be calling fo much cake eating amonsgst the little people of the world.


I really don't understand your confusion. I think in terms of replacing a vehicle so that my fuel costs remain the same, while allowing me to drive as many miles as before.

Don't like my solution? Then activate another one.....gas twice as much? Drive half as much. Problem solved. Random personal travel in America is staggering....everyone should do their part and do less of it. Nothing to do with your fake implications that only well off Americans are capable of such a staggering complex plan.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Mmmm yes the little people of the world have so many choices... F150 or Prius. Gosh, should I put that new Fuel Cell vehicle on my American Express? Or Mastercard?


Knock yourself out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Perhaps it might be smart to imagine a world outside of your bubble. Though the ypper middle class and wealthy 1 % of the world may be inured for some time to the effects of Peak Oil, the other 99% may have some difficultues. You seem to have a hard time imagining what those difficulties might be. Dig deeper.

I'd still like to hear what you imagine the transition to be like, if its not "seamless".


I've already volunteered what the transition might look like. Considering that it is already underway, why not pick up a paper? Read something interesting on the internet? Peak oil happened and certainly that went right on bye without people noticing much....what makes you think a transition would be much more disturbing?


Ummm...no...the last oil spike did have a few deleterious effects. Perhaps you missed them. People suddenly didn't buy electric cars. The world's poor suffered a tremendous price spike in food and cooking fuel in direct realtion to the oil price spike. The poor and middle class of wealthier nations suffered dramatic inflation in fuel and heating costs. Many of the poor of wealthier nations were forced to choose between food or heating...etc etc. Look back...you might have forgotten whjat happened when oil prices spiked.

But again- you said that certainly the transition wouldn't be seamless. Then you seem to have a hard time outlining what "not being seamless" means. Give us some examples.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 14:53:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')Peak oil happened and certainly that went right on bye without people noticing much....what makes you think a transition would be much more disturbing?


Ummm...no...the last oil spike did have a few deleterious effects.


Sure. Just like the peak oil in 1979. And in 2005. Rinse and repeat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
') Perhaps you missed them.


No...I mitigated them. I already explained how. And then I gave you the "po-boys" mitigation technique.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')People suddenly didn't buy electric cars. The world's poor suffered a tremendous price spike in food and cooking fuel in direct realtion to the oil price spike.


People didn't buy electric cars because the demand was destroyed so fast by OTHER means, my particular favorite being...because they decided to stop doing the random transport they didn't need, at least here in America. And the worlds poor are ALWAYS suffering, usually from worse things than spikes in fuel.

Out of curiousity, have you written your Congressmen to stop speculation in the markets so it won't happen again next time, the speculators driving up the price of crude?

I mean, if you are really worried about how the poor are affected by things in this world, surely you didn't let the price of oil retreating stop you from being an activist for them, did you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')But again- you said that certainly the transition wouldn't be seamless. Then you seem to have a hard time outlining what "not being seamless" means. Give us some examples.

Sure.

The US government spent some 4(?) billion dollars of my tax dollars to "incentive-ize" the purchase of more fuel efficient vehicles in America, running up the tax burden on the average American by another few dollars. This idiotic waste of tax payers dollars, with interest, will probably still be around when my children become tax paying citizens. And it was done to support nationalized car companies which don't deserve to be in business, and yet the primary benefit to the auto industy seems to have helped out Toyota and Honda even more than the nationalized companies. Absolutely ridiculous and wasteful part of "not seamless", this interference in the basic marketplace.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 15:10:35

Mmmm- so you gave us your personal mitigation plan for a price spike. Thanks much for that. Very helpful.

And then the "po' boys" mitigation plan is to what? Just drive less. Mmmmkay.

And then because oil price spike caused a food price spike, I imagine your mitigation plan for most of the world's poor would be to..."just eat less."

Or rather- "Just eat more cake"...
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 16:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')The US government spent some 4(?) billion dollars of my tax dollars to "incentive-ize" the purchase of more fuel efficient vehicles in America, running up the tax burden on the average American by another few dollars. Absolutely ridiculous and wasteful part of "not seamless", this interference in the basic marketplace.
We agree. Our government (reflecting it's completely cornucopian sheeple-populace) has not clue how to react to the peak oil crisis. SURPRISED.


Our government perhaps has noticed the coming and going of peak oil with the same aplomb that the world has. Not necessarily related to the derogatory characterization of your fellow countrymen in the least.

Jimmy Carter tried the "gee lets scare everyone and pretend we're running out!" routine, and not only was he wrong, but by pulling the trigger early he now has instilled within Americans the idea that politicians don't know diddly about resource issues, so why should they be believed the next time? 20 years of peak oil calls hardly gives peakers any credibility, I figure we're down to just letting it happen, assuming it hasn't already, and allow the long, steady transition to continue.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 16:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'M')mmm- so you gave us your personal mitigation plan for a price spike. Thanks much for that. Very helpful.


Plan, future tense? Nope...plan...already did in 2008. Now, suddenly, this year is an absolute bounty because oil prices dropped post peak, rather than continuing to skyrocket. Go figure!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')And then the "po' boys" mitigation plan is to what? Just drive less. Mmmmkay.


Considering Prius sales in 2008, and into 2009, certainly most people must have applied my po' boy plan rather than my personal favorite. Perfectly acceptable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')And then because oil price spike caused a food price spike, I imagine your mitigation plan for most of the world's poor would be to..."just eat less."

Or rather- "Just eat more cake"...


I certainly do not apply only "let them eat cake" mitigation techniques....but when po' boy techniques wipe out demand in the worldest largest waster of crude, the corresponding price drop then alleviates the suffering around the world which you seem to care about, maybe not in a real sense, but more of a pretend one because you never asnwered my question as to your enthusiasm for actually HELPING those other people, rather then trying to use them as some sort of fake "moral outrage against the badness of those who were luckily not born elsewhere" routine.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 17:39:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Jimmy Carter tried the "gee lets scare everyone and pretend we're running out!" routine, and not only was he wrong, but by pulling the trigger early he now has instilled within Americans the idea that politicians don't know diddly about resource issues,
Carter was a nuclear engineer and he understood exactly what was happening. he installed solar panels on the White House but our Sheeple-Manager Ronnie Raygun took them down.


Revisionist history strikes again.

Tell me Pstarr, if Carter was right, whats all those carbon and hydrogen molecules all bound up into that gassy stuff we keep pumping into peoples houses which we were so badly running out of, that Carter tried to ban its use in electrical generation? OH YEAH!! Natural gas!!

Silly me...thinking the legislation he passed banning its use was because he thought we had so much of the stuff....while telling all the silly sheeple we were running out!! Its a conspiracy!!

3 cheers for them solar panels though..... :P
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 18:34:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Are you really serious? I have no idea what you are trying to say, but trust me: it is nonsense. Do you expect people to react intelligently to this stuff.


Unlike you, I don't recall being challenged on a single point which I can't back up with factual information.

If you are claiming you don't understand the background information in these types of conversations, that would not be a surprise at all, Mr Scraping It Off Rocks.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 18:38:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Are you really serious? I have no idea what you are trying to say, but trust me: it is nonsense. Do you expect people to react intelligently to this stuff.


Unlike you, I don't recall being challenged on a single point which I can't back up with factual information, or the application of a fact to a particular situation. Your lack of knowledge on basic history topics like the energy crisis during the Carter administration, or the legislation which flowed from that administration, or Carters speeches where he proclaimed we would be running out soon, is not a surprise.

If you are claiming you aren't smart enough to understand how to find out this basic information for yourself because of the mind boggling complexity of learning how to google, now that I can believe.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 18:56:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')How about simply facts? Instead "factual information" I love the way kids use lots of words instead of simple truths.

-sense, you need to get serious.


Sure. But there is a better topic for this conversation already, and I posted a basic question, predicated on facts.

http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-reports/pea ... 72-15.html
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 19:57:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are doing it again. Carter was a nuclear engineer and understood energy. Simple really.


Then refute my statements Pstarr. Show us how Jimmy, while claiming we were going to run out, really didn't mean it. Can you get his signature off of the legislation he signed perhaps? Claim whatever you'd like ( as usual ) but until you can get his signature off that legislation, I have what he DID, you have some random claim about his career which doesn't have anything to do with the fossil fuels.
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