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A bleak picture as oil production slides

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 22:55:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'M')mmm- so you gave us your personal mitigation plan for a price spike. Thanks much for that. Very helpful.


Plan, future tense? Nope...plan...already did in 2008. Now, suddenly, this year is an absolute bounty because oil prices dropped post peak, rather than continuing to skyrocket. Go figure!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')And then the "po' boys" mitigation plan is to what? Just drive less. Mmmmkay.


Considering Prius sales in 2008, and into 2009, certainly most people must have applied my po' boy plan rather than my personal favorite. Perfectly acceptable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')And then because oil price spike caused a food price spike, I imagine your mitigation plan for most of the world's poor would be to..."just eat less."

Or rather- "Just eat more cake"...


I certainly do not apply only "let them eat cake" mitigation techniques....but when po' boy techniques wipe out demand in the worldest largest waster of crude, the corresponding price drop then alleviates the suffering around the world which you seem to care about, maybe not in a real sense, but more of a pretend one because you never asnwered my question as to your enthusiasm for actually HELPING those other people, rather then trying to use them as some sort of fake "moral outrage against the badness of those who were luckily not born elsewhere" routine.


In any event, SOS' best mitigation plan for the poor and middle class of the world is "Let them eat cake." Suffering always happens and a dramatic increase in suffering on a global scale is simply the way things go for SOS. Remember, when the next oil price spike happens due to oil scarcity, buy a Prius!
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 19:08:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')In any event, SOS' best mitigation plan for the poor and middle class of the world is "Let them eat cake."


While your claims of altruism are undoubtedly as sincere as what Obama accomplished in his first 11 days of office to deserve the Nobel prize, you certainly appear to have no basic recognition of a basic fact, if everyone in America, a country who's citizens could afford it because compared to the rest of the world, nearly all of us are rich, were to drive Prius's, there wouldn't BE any trouble for the poor and middle class of the world related to using crude oil to cook food.

The Saudi's would REALLY be begging for aid then, wouldn't they! And they wouldn't even be able to use the excuse of not having crude oil to simmer some water over!
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 19:21:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
While your claims of altruism are undoubtedly as sincere as what Obama accomplished in his first 11 days of office to deserve the Nobel prize, you certainly appear to have no basic recognition of a basic fact, if everyone in America, a country who's citizens could afford it because compared to the rest of the world, nearly all of us are rich, were to drive Prius's, there wouldn't BE any trouble for the poor and middle class of the world related to using crude oil to cook food.

The Saudi's would REALLY be begging for aid then, wouldn't they! And they wouldn't even be able to use the excuse of not having crude oil to simmer some water over!



Again no altruism- (and what does this have to do with Obama?) but an acknowledgment of what happened the last time oil spiked. There was no seamless transition. The vast majority of the world...suffered.

And you agreed- a transition would not be seamless. But then you have a hard time explaining what that means. Still pretty murky. Describe a transition that is not "seamless".
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 21:17:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')There was no seamless transition. The vast majority of the world...suffered.



Great...then we can agree....that in all the prior peak oils, and recessions, and depressions, and during times of bad leadership everywhere, the vast majority subjected to ANY of these conditions...suffers.
8O

I'm not sure you have managed to draw any distinction whatsoever between THOSE sufferings and CURRENT sufferings.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 21:20:17

?? Still waiting for you to describe how the transition won't be seamless. Please spell it out...
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 21:41:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '?')? Still waiting for you to describe how the transition won't be seamless. Please spell it out...


I did it already. I regret the answer did not line up with your hopes for saving the starving masses of the third world at the same time.

Combust some gasoline driving through Kansas sometime, the seamless possibilities are all whipping in the wind. They show great potential, if only by their number.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 13:11:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '?')? Still waiting for you to describe how the transition won't be seamless. Please spell it out...


I did it already. I regret the answer did not line up with your hopes for saving the starving masses of the third world at the same time.

Combust some gasoline driving through Kansas sometime, the seamless possibilities are all whipping in the wind. They show great potential, if only by their number.


Was this your answer?

"Heck, I know better than to predict the future specifically, I certainly don't want the kind of egg on my face that peakers have managed to accumulate for themselves, I'll just stick with noticing that their fanciful scenario's certainly haven't shown up, and call that a good sign because it means their fundamental assumptions as to how the world works was wrong."
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Geodesic » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 16:16:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')MadDog has already verified for us its consideration in relation to the modern oil and gas business.
This is not true.


MadDog has ventured his professional opinion on the metric used to judge which projects should be done, and EROEI was not included. You have been asked to provide your professional experience on the same topic, and never said a word. Have you suddenly gone out and acquired some oil and gas experience to refute what a professional in the field has already provided? :roll:


Would that be Matt Simmons who has more expertize that just about anyone?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 18:41:52

What are you talking about?
Simmons has made recommendations on whether oil or gas projects should proceed based on eroei?
Really?

You seem to have cherry picked a post to quote without really following the discussion or you don't really understand what was being discussed.

As to Simmons having more "expertize" than just about anyone, uhhh, maybe you better check his recent predictions.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 19:14:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')MadDog has already verified for us its consideration in relation to the modern oil and gas business.
This is not true.


MadDog has ventured his professional opinion on the metric used to judge which projects should be done, and EROEI was not included. You have been asked to provide your professional experience on the same topic, and never said a word. Have you suddenly gone out and acquired some oil and gas experience to refute what a professional in the field has already provided? :roll:


Would that be Matt Simmons who has more expertize that just about anyone?


Matt Simmons has an accounting degree from the University of Utah, and I believe a business degree from Harvard. He looks at investment opportunities, and specializes in the oil and gas service sector. He has never claimed to have discovered oil or gas, he has never claimed to have run oil and gas projects, he has never claimed to have been a welltender, roustabout, driller, company man, drilling manager, production or reservoir engineer or any of the other specialties which exist within the profession.

In short ( :-D ) he effectively has zero experience in the field.

Once upon a time, in order to write book, he actually read some professional papers published in the field. His book was rounded bashed by actual professionals in the field, in part because he took normal oilfield operations and presented them as systemic faults rather than what they were...normal oilfield solutions dealing with normal oilfield problems.

Now, if you are investing in the oil and gas service sector for a pension fund, he might be your man.

There is a thread around here dedicated to his professional opinion that the world was going to end in 2005 and prayer was the only hope. Obviously, he must have prayed alot.

If you can't find the appropriate thread, I'd be more than happy to PM you the link.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 19:15:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Was this your answer?

"Heck, I know better than to predict the future specifically, I certainly don't want the kind of egg on my face that peakers have managed to accumulate for themselves, I'll just stick with noticing that their fanciful scenario's certainly haven't shown up, and call that a good sign because it means their fundamental assumptions as to how the world works was wrong."


No, that was me making a comment on how future predictions tend to come out, specifically related to peak oil. My answer was that seamless will be more more noticable to some than others. Obviously, some of us noticed peak oil a year ago, and some of us didn't. But ALL of us appreciate the price collapse afterwards I'm sure.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 19:49:33

"Seamless to some and not seamless to others"...

Can you explain what the latter would look like?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 20:22:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '&')quot;Seamless to some and not seamless to others"...

Can you explain what the latter would look like?


I think at this point, based on your obvious dissatisfaction with my prior answers, I shall just rest on my laurels. Peak oil happened, if you want to know what seamless or not seamless looks like, read a paper, watch some TV, go to the gas station and see if there is a shortage, stop in at Walmart and check the food shelves, join the Peace Corp and alleviate the now cheaper costs of fuel for heating food in the third world, maybe show them how to build a solar oven from cardboard and tinfoil or some such thing.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 21:05:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shorty', 'O')nce upon a time, in order to write book, he (Simmons) actually read some professional papers published in the field. His (Simmons) book was rounded bashed by actual professionals in the field, in part because he took normal oilfield operations and presented them as systemic faults rather than what they were...normal oilfield solutions dealing with normal oilfield problems.

For every "professional" who has "roundly bashed" Simmons important work, I can name dozens of real experts who hold it in the highest regard.

Start naming shorty :twisted:


We already did this. I referenced the Canadian Energy Research Institute and the comments from their reservoir engineers. You ran away...as usual...and started some crap throwing monkey imitation in another thread. You want to finish the Simmons conversation, GO THERE. Otherwise, stop pretending you stick around for longer than 5 seconds once challenged with real information.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby thuja » Fri 16 Oct 2009, 00:03:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '&')quot;Seamless to some and not seamless to others"...

Can you explain what the latter would look like?


I think at this point, based on your obvious dissatisfaction with my prior answers, I shall just rest on my laurels. Peak oil happened, if you want to know what seamless or not seamless looks like, read a paper, watch some TV, go to the gas station and see if there is a shortage, stop in at Walmart and check the food shelves, join the Peace Corp and alleviate the now cheaper costs of fuel for heating food in the third world, maybe show them how to build a solar oven from cardboard and tinfoil or some such thing.


So- you say "not seamless to others"...but then you talk about cheaper costs of fuel, etc. You don't really mention what could happen when things aren't quite so...seamless. Is that hard to do? Is it hard to talk about what will be problematic?

I don't know what you mean by "read a paper" or "watch some TV". Give me an idea about this "not seamless to others". Who are these "others" and what could possibly happen to them?
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