[hardtootell-2]

While I agree that moderates do have a lot of legitimate perspectives, there are too many wild cards that could be dealt. The geopolitical and economic risks have not been effectively mitigated and IMHO will come into play, perhaps soon- no one knows.

[thuja]

A moderate here does not mean no doom-

It just does not mean insta-mega-doom. Those guys need to recede to the far background in my opinion. The Roccmans, etc. Thank God he's gone. He owned this site when oil pushed 150/barrel. Haven't seen him for a while and good riddance- gives this place a bad name.

Hate to say it but MonteQuest was theintellectual force behind insta-mega-doom and rallied quite a few troops behind him and most of y'all are still here.

How about just descending into good old fashioned penury and drudgery. Is that too much for a moderate to ask?

Do 5 billion people really have to die in the next few years to satisfy this clouded bunch of ignorami who took over this site with their misguided rantings...

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')he world was supposed to end with the peak...

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hen I went to the Boston Peak Oil site I contacted one of the members here to see if he/she wanted to get involved in a local Transition initiative. That member told me he/she was unemployed and too busy looking for new work.

If peakers are too consumed with navigating through the credit crisis then how can we expect anyone else to be interested?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')If peakers are too consumed with navigating through the credit crisis then how can we expect anyone else to be interested?

[mos6507]

I predict in the next price spike we'll see the return of "drill baby drill" and continued blame on speculators, greedy oil companies not working hard enough, rogue states who won't give us their oil, etc...

I don't know what it's going to take to get people to believe in geological limits, but never underestimate people's ability to rationalize the data to mean whatever they want it to mean.

I mean, we still to this day have a highly vocal blogosphere of global warming deniers. They may have largely shifted from "nothing's wrong" to "it's not our fault so let's not do anything", but they are still denying.

I have no doubt there will still be deniers blaming "librulz" when we're stuck eating soylent green.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'G')ood post mos.

I tend to agree with some of what your saying and I 'get" how it sure seems that its taking quite a while for things to get ugly. I'd submit we are all in the 'boiling frog" pot right now. We are living it. Its not dire or serious yet but that's because a lot of us understand that it will take time for the downward spiral to accelerate. I don't hold out a lot of hope at this point since I believe personally that we are past the point of mitigation. I do believe that its going to be bad, but in a Long Emergency way, rather than some swift Mad Max scenario.

Remember also that as we move forward the past becomes clearer. Yes a lot of doomer calls have been made and proven wrong. But we are getting a better handle on things with time and more focus from more people who are concerned about the problems. I sense we are at or very near the peak and it will take a few years before the true effects are felt. Until then the latest crisis is a more important and pressing issue so Po takes a back seat. I don't think we'll have to wait very long for another bout of energy related problems to come along and remind us what a huge issue passing the Peak of World Oil production will be.

[IslandCrow]

Thanks mos for that write-up and the link to the Oildrum article.

I find myself in the "End of Growth Group", and in Thuja's terms am a 'moderate'. One of the earlier articles that struck a deep impression on me was from ASPO, where it outlined stages of reaction. At the time I started working on changes for a PO world I felt that some of the time lines were a little pessimistic but in my planning I took them as 'taget dates'. I am glad to say that thinks have not been as bad as the worse case with the early stages taking a bit longer than outlined below.

The value of this is that it gave me a framework (or outline) of how I might plan, but I do not have to follow it as prophecy - actually I review it periodically and adjust my expected time frame against projects I am working on (eg paying of the mortgage, better house insulation).


From ASPO newsletter 52 (http://www.peakoil.net), downloaded 2005

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5')30 Reacting to terminal illness
Brian Regan makes a telling comparison, commenting as follows:

It has occurred to me that Elisabeth Kübler-Ross' "grief cycle," initially discovered by her as the typical path of a patient’s reaction to the unwelcome news of terminal illness, might also be applied to the end of cheap, suitable oil. I am listing it here, with my own guesses (in parentheses) about the reactions to peak oil, and some conjectures respecting the time frames of such reactions. I think it sums up much that has been written about the future effects of the phenomenon.

Shock Stage
Initial paralysis at hearing the bad news. (Inability to relate the prospect of growth cessation to anything in past experience.) ca. 2000

Denial Stage
Trying to avoid the inevitable. (Rigid refusal to accept the outlandish notion that cheap oil of the right kind will end soon.) 2000-2007

Anger Stage
Frustrated outpouring of bottled-up emotion. (Outrage at "Big Oil," Saudi Arabia, China, government taxation, etc.) 2005-2009

Bargaining Stage
Seeking in vain for a way out. ("Throw the bums out" by electing new leaders, heavy investing in expensive alternatives, calls for "science" to save us, expecting a deus ex machina.) 2008-2012

Depression Stage
Final realization of the inevitable. (Even flat-earth economists surrender, presidential politicians state facts publicly, businesses begin collapsing in droves, return of the Great Depression foretokens collapse.) 2011-2015

Testing Stage
Seeking realistic solutions. (National impoverishment forces abandonment of socialist policies and international development aid, various alternative-energy schemes tested and most abandoned, local farming grows, large cities wither, beginnings of martial law to keep order, interregional conflicts.) 2013-2025

Acceptance Stage
Finally finding the way forward. (War, collapse.) 2018-2075

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')uring a cheap energy regime political and economic factors play the greatest role in primary (oil field) energy production. It matters little whether the Spindletop gusher has an eroei of 100:1 or 50:1. Most of the resulting fuel makes it to the consumer.

However as energy becomes more difficult to extract, more of the final product, (i.e. refined gasoline and diesel) must be returned to the production system as an energy cost of doing business. So for example, the sizable energy investment required of an unconventional fuel like tar sands (it has an eroie of only around 6:1) becomes a critical bit of information that should guide profit expectations and investment. In this case 16% of the production is essentially lost to the heavy mining equipment, natural gas upgrading and water processing and renders economics (if not the horrendous environmental consequences) difficult at best. Hence the essentially stagnant production profile out of Alberta.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')So world demand dropped from 82 Mbbl/d to 77 Mbbl/d due to the recession. What does that gain us, really? Saving 5 Mbbl/d and consuming 77 means we extend world oil supplies 15 days every year the recession lasts.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')But after last year I have really turned the corner with my peak oil guru worship. I don't necessarily take any Oil Drum analysis, Energy Bulletin blog, etc... as gospel.

I would advise everyone to temper their tendency to rally around some kind of group-think narrative about how and when this is going to play out.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Crude oil was more expensive in 1900 than it was in 1930. Are you honestly trying to claim that Spindletop, born into a more expensive oil era than East Texas, was an impossibility because of this EROEI nonsense, and those oil boys were just too stupid to notice? Because I can assure you, both were developed, regardless of EROEI at the time, and regardless of their relative difference in real prices of crude at the time.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')So now we're at a point in time when The Oil Drum is even thinking about calling it quits.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') This is really getting old Short. Do you honestly believe that any of us who understand what PO means give you any credibility whatsoever?

Your a joke.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')he world was supposed to end with the peak...

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')MadDog has already verified for us its consideration in relation to the modern oil and gas business.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')So now we're at a point in time when The Oil Drum is even thinking about calling it quits.

[Pops]

Thanks for the link to the Oil Drum.

I'm kind of surprised people think expensive energy is not really so much of a problem as is a bad economy. What was it hey thought made talking about "constrained" supplies important?

"Peak Oil" has always been about the economy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('5 years, 6 months and 2 days ago Pops', 'I') don’t believe there will be an oil “crash” soon, but there certainly could be an economic crash as the cost of oil and virtually everything else begins its inevitable rise. That is the wild card; how long do we have to prepare before the cost of preparing is out of reach or the necessities unavailable?

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ntellectually pissweak article about brand popularity. The truth has ups and downs in the polls but remains the truth. Moss has been trying to disconnect current market reality and the bank colapse from P.O. for quite a while. Maybe TOD has been listening? Anyway a lot of us here think that's crap and there is a direct and obvious link between peak oil, peak pricing, peak growth and peak debt. If TOD want to pussy fart around after being screwed over by a bunch of PC jerks, it's just another Greenpeace kind of hippy revenue raising to support wilderness warriors kind of thing. If that's what they think the value of peak oil is they can rack off and let the adults continue the discussion.