[SeaGypsy]

I have witnessed wages in Asia rapidly level out across ASEAN over the last few years. The 3 tiers are in rough $USD terms: (note Singapore bucks these trends)

Unskilled labor: $3 a day.
Semi skilled/ trades assistants: $5 a day.
Professional rural: $10 a day.
Professional urban: $20- $25 a day.

Given that the skill base is growing exponentially in this part of the world and that growth in the region is lagely pegged to China's; it seems that this part of the world is setting the status quo for wages in real terms over coming years.

The end result of fully open markets will be a paced upward drift of real wages here; with a rapid crash in real wages in western countries.
On the other hand; if 1st world countries remain somewhat protectionist markets, there could be a trade backlash forcing wage parity anyhow. Along with other forces weakening the $USD in particular; the skill/ wage/ business doability equation in a global free market makes real wages in 1st world countries look to be headed in only 1 direction.
Ominously down.

China has one huge disadvantage in terms of international business investment ; the policy of Corporations having 50% board membership also members of the Communist Party. If they decide to grow up and change this policy, look for a huge and rapid expansion of investment into China along with Chinese wage parity to ASEAN almost instantaneously.
This means falling barriers to investment in the worlds fastest (if not only) growing economies will level out a playing field of about half of the worlds population, working at wages less than 1/10th of those in the 1st world.

Does anyone else think this is likely or significant?

[Cloud9]

My hope is that transportation costs will offset labor costs.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'M')y hope is that transportation costs will offset labor costs.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'D')oes anyone else think this is likely or significant?

[SeaGypsy]

6strings, yes your points about the Aussie are all contributing factors. For the 1st time since the depression though, the Oz Government is pushing some award wages down. Not at the minimum wage end but in the major skill/ technical areas like Nursing.

Australia never fell into the trap of allowing piles of illegals in to do shitty jobs for peanuts.

Australia has some of the worlds best mineral sources/ iron ore/ bauxite/ uranium/ gold/ diamonds/ natural gas/ coal and several rare earth minerals such as zirconium.

Australia is very controlled compared to the rest of the region; legally, economically and in business regulation generally.

Australia has a tiny population compared to any similar country, it's position is truly unique in the world in this respect.

Infrastructure such as power supply/ roads/ rail/ shipping are all pretty good. I have gone whole years in Australia without a blackout.
When there are problems emergency services are extremely well trained and organised.

We only have 4 major banks and a couple of dozen building societies (mutual funds); which are highly regulated compared to USA or many other 1st world banks.

My city, Darwin is 4 hours flight from Singapore; 7 hours to Hongkong and most other Asian cities. Darwin has a population of 120,000 and is the capital of the Northern Territory. The N.T. has a total just over 200,000 population sitting on the worlds richest mining area. Currently Darwin has unemployment at 3.4% and that inludes many Aboriginal people who don't want to work, buit get caught in the statistics due to our social security structure. Many Aboriginals are getting royalties from the mines and this gets them off the books.

[JJ]

SeaGypsy, when I married Bing, I decided to start a hollow block factory while I waited on visa. Went and bought a form and made hollow blocks mano-mano. I think we sold them for two pesos each; everyone said buy from the American because he's insane, he puts a sacko of concrete per puki of sand (that way the block would wait to crumb until you picked it up)
anyway, I think I made about 50 pesos a day after expenses. I said to Bing, this s&cks, to which she replied, but your making a living at the average wage for my country...

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'S')eaGypsy, when I married Bing, I decided to start a hollow block factory while I waited on visa. Went and bought a form and made hollow blocks mano-mano. I think we sold them for two pesos each; everyone said buy from the American because he's insane, he puts a sacko of concrete per puki of sand (that way the block would wait to crumb until you picked it up)
anyway, I think I made about 50 pesos a day after expenses. I said to Bing, this s&cks, to which she replied, but your making a living at the average wage for my country...

[Cloud9]

Yes SG I am aware that shipping is cheap. But, if the premise of this forum is correct, at some point costs will go through the roof. Should that happen, we will revert to local manufacturing.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'Y')es SG I am aware that shipping is cheap. But, if the premise of this forum is correct, at some point costs will go through the roof. Should that happen, we will revert to local manufacturing.

[SeaGypsy]

Expat put this article up on another thread; it is pertinent and one of the best pieces of writing on the state of the USA in global markets I have read:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13900.html

[Cloud9]

My gut tells me that we are seeing the beginning of the collapse of complex systems. Nature abhors a vacuum. In its place will evolve simpler systems. We have a local winery, a foundry, a fertilizer plant, a gun powder manufacturing facility and machine shops. We’ve got cattle, pigs and poultry. We have a lot of land. We have a community college. We have more retired machinist and tool and die makers than you can shake a stick at. We have retired engineers from the space program. We’ve got a lot of talent and a lot of raw materials. I just don’t see us sitting down in the dirt and dying.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'M')y gut tells me that we are seeing the beginning of the collapse of complex systems. Nature abhors a vacuum. In its place will evolve simpler systems. We have a local winery, a foundry, a fertilizer plant, a gun powder manufacturing facility and machine shops. We’ve got cattle, pigs and poultry. We have a lot of land. We have a community college. We have more retired machinist and tool and die makers than you can shake a stick at. We have retired engineers from the space program. We’ve got a lot of talent and a lot of raw materials. I just don’t see us sitting down in the dirt and dying.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')ustralia has a tiny population compared to any similar country, it's position is truly unique in the world in this respect.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')ustralia has a tiny population compared to any similar country, it's position is truly unique in the world in this respect.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'S')eaGypsy, when I married Bing, I decided to start a hollow block factory while I waited on visa. Went and bought a form and made hollow blocks mano-mano. I think we sold them for two pesos each; everyone said buy from the American because he's insane, he puts a sacko of concrete per puki of sand (that way the block would wait to crumb until you picked it up)
anyway, I think I made about 50 pesos a day after expenses. I said to Bing, this s&cks, to which she replied, but your making a living at the average wage for my country...

[JJ]

thought I might add the reason the Catholic Church was supporting communism was that the communists were doing what they said they would (building schools, hospitals, etc.) while the democratic government (Marcos, etc.) were robbing the country blind. Thus the reason for Bings brother fighting with Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayef.

[SeaGypsy]

As compared to the philosophical discussion of politics in America; they are lived here in Asia.