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THE Consumer Confidence Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Consumer confidence jumps

Unread postby bikerguy » Wed 27 May 2009, 00:44:31

yeah sure confidence is high, they had to get he stock market up on something, sure didn't have anything else regaurding good news. CNBC even said the market has never ralled on reports like that before. The stock market is running scared. There also saying BS like a turnaround in the fourth quarter, heah sure. :lol:
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Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 18:46:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Stocks down on dip in consumer confidence

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell sharply in midday trading Tuesday after a private research group said consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-do ... 7.html?x=0

Talk about a rogue wave! How could consumer confidence have fallen like this? No one could have ever predicted this. :)
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 21:45:37

I agree. It was a stunning shock to all of us! Who knew? I am sure it had nothing to do with the economists' report, mentioned on tonight's ABC News, that stated they expected, at least, one out of ten Americans to be unemployed by the end of the year. (no link-sorry)
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby jbrovont » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 22:03:49

1 in 10? Ouch. Michigan's unemployment rate is already there, and things are just withering. A Casino in Detroit went BK, along with some fun parks. I can't count the number of businesses I see closed - even gas stations. The most advertising I see lately is "We buy gold."

Most worrisome however - is driving though the neighborhoods during the day. I've started to see lots and lots of people - just...sitting. Sitting on porches, on benches, at abandoned and forclosed properties. Some walking around - looking more like they're wandering than heading someplace. I don't know if it's just me, but more and more of them have that broken look on their faces.

Going to be a long, hot summer.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'I') agree. It was a stunning shock to all of us! Who knew? I am sure it had nothing to do with the economists' report, mentioned on tonight's ABC News, that stated they expected, at least, one out of ten Americans to be unemployed by the end of the year. (no link-sorry)
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 22:11:15

People were overly optimistic in May, just as they were overly pessimistic in October.

We aren't going to return to business as usual any time soon and people are starting to figure it out.

We aren't used to a plateau and it's going to take a while for people to adjust.
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby Novus » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 10:37:52

I think people just woke up the fact that all that talk of "Green Shoots" was nothing but BS. Did the "green shoots" rally land anyone a job? No. Did these "green shoots" lead business to pick up? Aside from Goldman Sachs NO. The reality is people are losing jobs and businesses are going under.
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby kmann » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 10:52:33

Consumer confidence is an overhyped indicator. It has little predictive value, and only a little better as a concurrent indicator.
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby Pops » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 14:55:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'I')'ve started to see lots and lots of people - just...sitting.

No fooling, that is more scary to me than all the threads with all the "experts" predicting The Big One - a year ago they were just as many experts predicting the opposite.

Anyone else notice similar indicators?
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-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby retiredguy » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 22:09:40

Just got back from a trip to New York state. Came back through Canada and got lost in Detroit trying to find an interstate. The neighborhood we circled looked mighty scary. It was rainy, so not many people on the street. What struck me was the vacant land and vacant houses. Couldn't see the intersections because of the height of the weeds. Even the liquor stores were shuttered.
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby odegaard » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 23:10:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'T')he neighborhood we circled looked mighty scary. It was rainy, so not many people on the street. What struck me was the vacant land and vacant houses. Couldn't see the intersections because of the height of the weeds. Even the liquor stores were shuttered.
:wink:
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 02 Jul 2009, 00:05:49

That image is beautiful, where is it from?
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby odegaard » Thu 02 Jul 2009, 00:15:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')hat image is beautiful, where is it from?

darkroastedblend - march issue

It's a website that specializes in "Weird and Wonderful things" at least that's their motto.

Now that you mentioned it you're probably right. That pic is too flattering for Detroit.
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Re: Black swan event: consumer confidence falls unexpectedly

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 02 Jul 2009, 03:15:40

The Millionaire Consumer Confidence index has plunged as well:
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE5605N720090701
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Effects of Baby Boomer consumer confidence

Unread postby deMolay » Thu 01 Oct 2009, 08:54:30

"Fool Me Once Shame On You Fool Me Twice Shame On Me"
Good insight into effect of consumers on recovery. But I noticed he failed to mention the fact that the largest demographic in history. The "Baby Boomers" the Greatest Generation (Hah Hah Hah) Will be in survival mode the rest of their lives, and saving like crazy squirrels. Until the Baby Boomers start buying again. No recovery is possible. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 07 Oct 2009, 09:14:18, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Clarified title.
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Re: Fool Me Once Shame On You Fool Me Twice Shame On Me

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 01 Oct 2009, 09:08:33

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/Z12009-09/PonziFinance.png

This chart combines PO US with Nixon/Friedman Gold/$ peg
drop along with the now acknowledged FedRes Gold Swap
(See ABX abandons Gold Hedges/Fekete).

And according to the above, Q3 2000 was our last chance to
get it right before hitting the World PO in 2000/2001.

The SCOTUS (s)elected bush43 instead and we've been in
Bizarro World ever since.
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Re: Fool Me Once Shame On You Fool Me Twice Shame On Me

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 01 Oct 2009, 10:46:30

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Re: Fool Me Once Shame On You Fool Me Twice Shame On Me

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 01 Oct 2009, 15:15:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'A') classic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A


He got more and more repetitious and unable to sustain trains of thought. Having known a few people with serious prescription drug problems, it looks like he went Elvis. Some day maybe we'll find out what those drugs were.

The other guy who was high as a kite was McC in the debates. He would start off slow, then 20 minutes into the event he would get very agitated, start laughing at himself, and licking his lips like he had cotton mouth. He seemed to be getting a good jolt of speed.
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