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THE Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 15:30:14

Do you do anything on this forum besides troll Peter?
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 18:04:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'D')o you do anything on this forum besides troll Peter?


Touche for spelling and grammar nazis!
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 19:50:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')hought I'd bump this thread. Has Matt gotten much airtime on cable news lately? I'm wondering whether maybe he made one too many bad calls. Do you think he's done himself in as an a-lister?


I don't think mainstream reporters make any effort at all to check people's track records. A few weeks ago Matt was spouting about people making irresponsible natural gas predictions. Even though he himself has the worst track record of anybody. So the reporter didn't get the humor at all, and played Matt up like an terrific authority. Same goes for Ruppert. The guy's made inane wrong predictions for years: Hurricane Rita is going to destroy the US as a superpower, the Mumbai terror attacks are going to take down the US economy etc. And yet just yesterday a bozo from the MSM is hailing his "astonishingly acute foresight".

So, to answer your question: no. Matt Simmons will always be on the a-list, no matter how many times his predictions fail. (Although I'm sure there is a lot of snickering and eye-rolling behind his back among those who actually know his record.)
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Revi » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 22:28:58

Matt Simmons will be back on the business shows when oil goes back up. They love him. They can't understand what he's saying, but they love to have him on for some reason.

He believes we should get back to a village economy, and soon. I agree, but don't know how to make it happen.

We need to get people out of their cars and into neighborhoods and towns that don't require cars.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 23:05:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')We need to get people out of their cars and into neighborhoods and towns that don't require cars.


Then why would he be talking about windmill projects off the coast of Maine to supply that entire states electrical needs, while using the electrical surplus to make ammonia, which he plans on using to power those same cars?

He isn't just being randomly cornocopian again, is he?
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 20 Sep 2009, 04:16:34

One can start by posting something constructive instead of trolling Peter.
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Re: Matt Simmons: We're 3-6 months away from an oil price shock

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 21:05:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'m going to post this thread and link the article for the purposes of revisiting it in 3-6 months.
Matt said on March 26: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29891917
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Matt Simmons', '&')quot;We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

And for the record, as I write this oil is about $53 on the NYMEX.

Well, it's time for that 6-month update.

Three months ago I gave him partial credit since there was a mini-spike up to about $73. However, in the intervening 3 months since then, every time it's gotten near $73 it's hit a brick wall. It's now at about $66, just $13 more than it was when he made his prediction. What's really funny by now is this part:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSimmons', '&')quot;Within a few months, we are going to realize our visible inventories are really tight -- squeaky tight -- and what would really be inconvenient is to see a recovery in the economy."

We're even starting to see the economy show signs of growth by now . . . and yet, we don't have anything remotely resembling tight inventories.

We've got inventories of crude oil above the 5-year average
Image

We've got inventories of gasoline above the 5-year average
Image

And inventories of distillates are reaching biblical proportions
Image

In short, another Matt Simmons prediction bites the dust! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Matt Simmons: We're 3-6 months away from an oil price shock

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 21:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')In short, another Matt Simmons prediction bites the dust! :lol:


I'm curious Oily, based on a quick check of some of the things he has claimed over the years, maybe the question should be reversed? Out of ALL the predictions we can find/reference/heard/saw over the past half decade, how many of them have been RIGHT?

Might make for quite a more efficient ( smaller :) ) list.
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Re: Matt Simmons: We're 3-6 months away from an oil price shock

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 21:11:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')In short, another Matt Simmons prediction bites the dust! :lol:


I'm curious Oily, based on a quick check of some of the things he has claimed over the years, maybe the question should be reversed? Out of ALL the predictions we can find/reference/heard/saw over the past half decade, how many of them have been RIGHT?

Might make for quite a more efficient ( smaller :) ) list.

Dunno. Maybe JD or someone else has kept track of all his predictions.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 22:00:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')or those new to this debate--Simmons has not been 'debunked' by anyone. Who are we to believe, an American investment banker or the Mullah? Saudis Princess with Rolls-Royces in a sea of poverty and corruption or a petroleum expert and US citizen?

Since when do US citizens have a monopoly on truthfulness?

The irony of such a thought coming from someone with a certain link in his sig. Not to mention extolling the believability of an investment banker when he constantly reminds us how destructive American capitalism is supposed to be.

:roll: :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 22:21:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')immons made one simple prediction in his 'Twilight in the Desert," that the world's oil production we soon peak. He supported this with an easy-to-understand and basic contention, that the Saudi's lie about their reserves.


Generalize all you would like. I prefer to quote the person in question.

Simmons, M., Twilight in the Desert (New Jersey, John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2005 ), p.354:

"The twilight of Saudi Arabia's oil miracle, if properly understood and managed, could become the dawn of a more enlightened and sustainable global society....it could unleash the dawning of a genuine scientific investigation as the world's brightest minds tackle the challenges of inventing a series of new energy forms that create even greater security and prosperity for the evoling societies of our new century than we enjoyed through the bounty of affordable and dependable oil."

Emphasis mine.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 28 Sep 2009, 00:41:14

The irony of you defending American investment bankers is beyond laughable. Perhaps you've forgotten this?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his Robert Brusca is a real whiz. This is what he had to say about housing Feb. 25, 2008.
[...]
Jesus Christ Oily, don't you do any homework? It took me all of 30 seconds to denounce this charlatan.

And who knows how many other similar statements. Perhaps it's time for you to do some homework of your own and learn about charlatans. To begin this lesson, see my post above with the 3 charts, accompanied by the Simmons quote.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 28 Sep 2009, 00:43:08

This whole 'circle the wagons' approach to defend any and all doomers (not just Matt, but Ruppert in the other thread) is the worst possible way to make these issues relevant to the masses. These people are not the Pope. They do not deserve our unconditional love and protection.

It's ditto-head-like blind loyalty and it's both unnecessary and counter-productive.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 28 Sep 2009, 01:30:34

Let's step back a moment and look at the greater problem of doomer figures making bad calls. Is Matt really the only one who has done this? How successfully have these bad calls just kind of been brushed under the rug or have deniers latched onto them?

Have we or have we not just suffered from a spate of denialist press from Lynch and so on?

Then let's realize just how high the stakes are for these public figures to stick their necks out again and again and build a warchest of bad calls for deniers to pull out whenever they want to bury bombshells like the IEA "peak in 10 years" one.

So I don't think I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. If peak oil figures don't cross their t's and dot their i's, it will all be very effectively used against us. They have the potential to set back peak oil awareness further than if they just never stepped forward to begin with.
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