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Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 25 Sep 2009, 09:46:35

I'd also be real interested in hearing the case for PO being a "Lie". That smacks completely of Conspiracy Theory and we all know how factual and unbiased they are.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby Lokutus » Fri 25 Sep 2009, 11:43:23

Oh dear, like I said at the beginning, I'm now officially sitting on the fence viz-a-viz Peak Oil--at least about it arriving officially in the next 15 to 20 years.

Now I'm the type of person who can hold two contradictory thoughts in his head.

Simultaneously.

I have it on good authority that most people can't. Hence the backlash here.

My post was not meant to upset the church membership but merely to remind everyone that beyond the boundaries of this forum lies an entire "other world" with differing views.

My hunch is that if I had gone over to http://www.rr-bb.com and reminded them that Jesus ain't coming back, my reception would not have been as hostile.

Just be wary of turning PO into yet another religion.

Back around 2003-2005 like some of you, I was planning to put together a bug-out bag and buy a gun. I was even fantasizing about what it would be like having to flee the city for the hills. That's how much of a believer I was. Then I began allowing contradictory data into my perception instead of just filtering it out.

Well, I must return back to work.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby americandream » Fri 25 Sep 2009, 18:34:31

The MSM is almost ENTIRELY dedicated to debunking Peak Oil and resourcing, and AGW, so much so that there are very few venues available for objective reporting of the two sides of anything controversial. Invariably, all that is fed to the sheeple out there is the party line and PO.com as well as a few other sites are a few of the non-MSM sites that offer us contrarian news. If I want anti-peak stuff, I've a plethora of choices. I have few choices for the other perspective. I come here to get an unblemished account of the contrary view and armed with MSM and PO.com information, I go off and make my choices.

To date, PO.com as well as Matts site has been the most consistent on the oil depletion front. The MSM in contrast, are all over the place. The buggers haven't a clue whather they are Arthur or Martha in fact. I am bloody grateful for Aaron putting his money where his beliefs are and taking the time to restore balance where there may not have otherwise been. You disbelieve his mission statement, then set up your own site and bear the cost of defending your beliefs as you seek to inform.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'O')h dear, like I said at the beginning, I'm now officially sitting on the fence viz-a-viz Peak Oil--at least about it arriving officially in the next 15 to 20 years.

Now I'm the type of person who can hold two contradictory thoughts in his head.

Simultaneously.

I have it on good authority that most people can't. Hence the backlash here.

My post was not meant to upset the church membership but merely to remind everyone that beyond the boundaries of this forum lies an entire "other world" with differing views.

My hunch is that if I had gone over to http://www.rr-bb.com and reminded them that Jesus ain't coming back, my reception would not have been as hostile.

Just be wary of turning PO into yet another religion.

Back around 2003-2005 like some of you, I was planning to put together a bug-out bag and buy a gun. I was even fantasizing about what it would be like having to flee the city for the hills. That's how much of a believer I was. Then I began allowing contradictory data into my perception instead of just filtering it out.

Well, I must return back to work.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby Lokutus » Fri 25 Sep 2009, 18:46:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'Y')ou disbelieve his mission statement, then set up your own site and bear the cost of defending your beliefs as you seek to inform.



This piece of advice is growing tedious.

Why on earth would I set up a site when I don't have a strong position either way on the issue? At best, I'm merely curious enough to be engaged in a low level monitoring of the situation.

I don't have any position to push on anyone.

For the record, I do run several sites devoted to bidness and finance. Why? Because I care enough to put in the work to start, build, and maintain them.

Has anybody looked at the increase in Chinese oil consumption over the last 5 years? Isn't odd that it's had so little effect on price?
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby Quinny » Fri 25 Sep 2009, 18:57:19

Has anyone ever told you that you're the spitting image of Ricky Gervais a comedian quite famous over here in the UK. I find him quite amusing as well.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'Y')ou disbelieve his mission statement, then set up your own site and bear the cost of defending your beliefs as you seek to inform.



This piece of advice is growing tedious.

Why on earth would I set up a site when I don't have a strong position either way on the issue? At best, I'm merely curious enough to be engaged in a low level monitoring of the situation.

I don't have any position to push on anyone.

For the record, I do run several sites devoted to bidness and finance. Why? Because I care enough to put in the work to start, build, and maintain them.



Has anybody looked at the increase in Chinese oil consumption over the last 5 years? Isn't odd that it's had so little effect on price?
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 25 Sep 2009, 21:48:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')For me the only question is when will it happen?



And how many times?
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby Lokutus » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 01:51:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')For me the only question is when will it happen?



And how many times?
The specific date of the peak event is a function of the definition the oil companies use to confuse cornies.

Peak for (crude plus condensate (2005)) is not the same as the (crude plus condensate plus alternative liquids (biofuels and albumen deposits (tar sands)) 2008).

Bu you knew that right, and you are just dissembling?

right short?


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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 01:56:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'O')h dear, like I said at the beginning, I'm now officially sitting on the fence viz-a-viz Peak Oil--at least about it arriving officially in the next 15 to 20 years.

Now I'm the type of person who can hold two contradictory thoughts in his head.

Simultaneously.

I have it on good authority that most people can't. Hence the backlash here.

My post was not meant to upset the church membership but merely to remind everyone that beyond the boundaries of this forum lies an entire "other world" with differing views.

My hunch is that if I had gone over to http://www.rr-bb.com and reminded them that Jesus ain't coming back, my reception would not have been as hostile.

Just be wary of turning PO into yet another religion.

Back around 2003-2005 like some of you, I was planning to put together a bug-out bag and buy a gun. I was even fantasizing about what it would be like having to flee the city for the hills. That's how much of a believer I was. Then I began allowing contradictory data into my perception instead of just filtering it out.

Well, I must return back to work.


See, Ive always thought what brought me here, and to a greater extent TOD, was this exact idea that I could hold opposing views in my head AT THE SAME TIME. Just like you! Imagine that! I spent almost the better part of six months refusing to believe a bunch of whacked out doomers. After those six months and doing some questioning of two folks I trust inside the energy industry, I came to the conclusion that we likely have a very real, very large, and imminent problem concerning FF resource depletion.

You obviously for whatever reason have not deduced this. I never have been in the quick crash, " Mad Max" camp and dont believe this will play out as such. I just see a long term constant decline interspersed with occasional blips of positive economic activity. I've never thought this was a run for the hills issue. Just one that IS going to affect all of us for the rest of our lives. Wanting to be part of the debate and hopefully educating others towards solutions is probably one of the main reasons I spend time here at all.

Be careful about the "religion" analogy. I don't think most of us who are serious about attempting to understand this or have begun to understand what the implications of PO are , see it in any such light.

I think your making a classic mistake mischaracterizing the majority of folks here with such a sweeping generality.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 15:05:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')For me the only question is when will it happen?



And how many times?
The specific date of the peak event is a function of the definition the oil companies use to confuse cornies.


Please reference the years you spent in an oil company, and the number of times they, and you, discussed coming up with definitions to confuse people into believing things inherently cornocopian?

EROEI isn't used in oilfield measurements of success or failure, as Maddog has pointed out to you.Sublimation as a basic property of hydrates means there is no "scrape it off rocks" required. Locally grown produce and meat is easily attainable, rather than "can't be found in America", and as YP pointed out, the entire combined construction of coal fired power plants over the past few years isn't 12 a year, and isn't anywhere near 12 GW of generation. I don't know what your professional capacity is as a alleged man of "science", but it strikes me that you might want to stop before my list gets any longer.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Peak for (crude plus condensate (2005)) is not the same as the (crude plus condensate plus alternative liquids (biofuels and albumen deposits (tar sands)) 2008).

Bu you knew that right, and you are just dissembling?

right short?
[/quote]

I am well aware of the many definitions used by peakers which allows them to pretend peak has happened at various points in time, for various reasons, and how they play this same game when confronted with resources rather than reserves, and I've described the method they use previously, so I will not belabor the point.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 15:16:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') Be careful about the "religion" analogy. I don't think most of us who are serious about attempting to understand this or have begun to understand what the implications of PO are , see it in any such light.

I think your making a classic mistake mischaracterizing the majority of folks here with such a sweeping generality.


I would call the religious-like belief component (ignore the facts, simply buy into the dogma and run with it) at 20%.Call the "happy survivalists"component (kill the yuppies or those with a different skin color) 30%, 10% for the eco-fascists ( save the world, humans are bad, make them comply with my vision of how to save the world ), and 20% for financial disaster types like Rocc(man?), and 20% for the gold bug/investor specialists, academics who might actually be worth listening to, people who really are trying to figure it out honestly, etc etc.

See...no sweeping generalization, a nice clean breakdown on the sub groups.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby Lokutus » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 15:37:11

Being an INTP, I like to collect as much data as I can. I first heard of PO back in 03 when Shell revised its reserves down by 25%. Then around 05/06 I became a pretty serious believer. Now I'm on the fence but take it as a serious potential threat.

Now what gets my dander up is if I'm debating PO on another forum and need some ammunition to counter someone's anti-PO arguments, this place can be useless because when I ask for help along the lines of "Hey guys, what about this?", all I get from the crowd here is a dismissive "Pffft!".

Yes, that's really helpful.
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby Lokutus » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 18:51:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'B')eing an INTP, I like to collect as much data as I can. I first heard of PO back in 03 when Shell revised its reserves down by 25%. Then around 05/06 I became a pretty serious believer. Now I'm on the fence but take it as a serious potential threat.

Now what gets my dander up is if I'm debating PO on another forum and need some ammunition to counter someone's anti-PO arguments, this place can be useless because when I ask for help along the lines of "Hey guys, what about this?", all I get from the crowd here is a dismissive "Pffft!".

Yes, that's really helpful.
Why anyone want to help you with your dismissive misinformed signature is beyond me.


Pffft!
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Re: Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

Unread postby americandream » Sat 26 Sep 2009, 19:49:15

I really don't know where to start with the likes of you.

Peak Oil is a conceptual site from my understanding of it over the years I have visited it. The impression I get from all the labour that Aaron and others have put into this place (as well as considerable money I suspect) is of the wish to convey the concept of the risks of living beyond our means, as a species.

That, in my opinion is a laudable ojective, notwithstanding the fact that the precise date for peak oil is uncertain at this juncture. For all we know, that may well be next week or at the end of the next decade or 5 decades hence. My position has consistently been that capitalism's collapse will be in the region of 4 to 5 decades, preceded in the interim by the gradual strangling off of the essentials necessary to keep it growing, namely oil to name one.

However, that view has not then translated into me neutralising the concept. In fact, the consequences of Aaron's efforts are of a magnitude well beyond the mere pedantics of whether we starve tomorrow or in 5 decades. Here we find the first glimmerings of a cutlture shift in how we view our resources and use them and to that degree and for that reason alone, I say, let this website do it's work, with some sensitive appreciation of it's efforts when updating us as to the current state of our finite oil resources.

Given the dire long term prognosis for Walmart/China consumerism, we have no reason to be elated at the "brisk" pace in new discoveries of a finite and as yet irreplaceable resource and that is what Peak OIL.com has spoken to me of over the years. For we all know the ferryman may be here tomorrow, or in 5 decades, but calling he shall be.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'B')eing an INTP, I like to collect as much data as I can. I first heard of PO back in 03 when Shell revised its reserves down by 25%. Then around 05/06 I became a pretty serious believer. Now I'm on the fence but take it as a serious potential threat.

Now what gets my dander up is if I'm debating PO on another forum and need some ammunition to counter someone's anti-PO arguments, this place can be useless because when I ask for help along the lines of "Hey guys, what about this?", all I get from the crowd here is a dismissive "Pffft!".

Yes, that's really helpful.
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