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What if Peak Oil never happens?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Postby RobintheDruid » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 08:44:49

SJN, 'Just because we can'? Just because we can meddle around with cloning does that make it right? Listen to Geoff Goldblum's character in 'Jurassic Park'. 'Just because we can' is not a justification for anything.

And as for having a responsibiliy to explore space, why? I don't see this. Its empire-building which led us to this situation in the first place, and although the Mayas etc weren't capitalist, other societies from the ancient world that disappeared were patriarchal city-states, which basically amounts to the same thing - greed and oppression.

There is a clear lesson from PO which has to be learnt. Greed, exploitation and meddling with nature will finish us all off in the end.
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Postby Omnitir » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 03:09:32

I think the fact that because we are fortunate enough to have intelligence capable of studying the universe and developing science, we have a duty to learn what we can.

I believe that the problems with the world don’t lie with science and technological development, but with money. I think that the main cause of our problems have come about because of the antiquated economic system we use based of supply and demand, instead of a more logical and scientific world basing the value of commodities of their true worth (i.e. – energy investment).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Greed, exploitation and meddling with nature will finish us all off in the end.

Perhaps, but you need to realise that it is those things that are the reason any animal species is alive at all. It all comes down to animal instinct, and our natural instinct to take advantage of a situation (which keeps species from extinction). The situation for humanity was cheap energy, and we took advantage of it. I think your right about greed, as in we need to not be so materialistic, but exploitation and meddling with nature is what all life is about.

I think the lesson from PO isn’t to abandon our technological existence (that’s impossible), or scientific advancement (that’s the only worthwhile thing humanity ever does) but to re-evaluate our principles and way of life. IMHO, money is the evil of the world, not technology.




BTW, there is no “nature” in space, just an endless void with a sprinkling of lifeless resources just floating around unused. Wouldn’t it be a noble goal to A) fill the galaxy with life, and B) exploit the resources in the vacuum of space and leave the Earth to nature?
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Postby RobintheDruid » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 09:27:58

Omnitir, there are ways and means of meddling with nature. For example, a plant breeding programme will result in lots of lovely new roses or such for your garden (rosa 'gertrude jeckyll' or 'scarlet pimpernel' etc). Genetic modification on the other hand will encourage superweeds, encourage pesticide resistance in bugs thereby creating superbugs, destroy habitats and native species of plants etc etc. Therefore breeding is good, GM is bad.

I can create a liveable shelter in the woods with hazel branches and canvas tarpaulin, install a windmill or a solar panel and live quite comfortably using low-level technology that has been created by 'manipulating' nature.

Or I can choose to build a huge housing estate, with no community facilities and thus is a breeding ground for kids gang crime and drug dealers, and which has completely obliterated the habitat of the last remaining population of 'Joe Bloggs' butterflies.

Yes fine, manipulate nature if you want to, but do it according to sustainable, natural principles, not according to capitalist greed principles.

:cry:
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Postby sjn » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 09:56:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RobintheDruid', 'O')mnitir, there are ways and means of meddling with nature. For example, a plant breeding programme will result in lots of lovely new roses or such for your garden (rosa 'gertrude jeckyll' or 'scarlet pimpernel' etc). Genetic modification on the other hand will encourage superweeds, encourage pesticide resistance in bugs thereby creating superbugs, destroy habitats and native species of plants etc etc. Therefore breeding is good, GM is bad.

This isn't true. "Breeding" is just a method of GM, unintended consequences are at least as likely by using this method as with deliberate genetic resequencing. My own opinion is that it can be dangerous producing new varities and introducing them into the "wild" (peoples gardens, agriculture etc), but then nothing is without risk I suppose. I would advocate using natural native species where possible so as to avoid many of the risks, as climate change kicks in though, this may not be possible. Mass cloning of agricultrual produce is extremely stupid anyway for other reasons.

These problems don't exist in the void of space. If we can use GM to create species that can survive and thrive on lifeless bodies in the solar system then I would be absolutely all for it. If we can modify ourselves to be able to adapt to the lower gravity extreme environments, why would this be a bad thing? Over time, evolution would do it's part and life thoughout the solar system would be nature.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I can create a liveable shelter in the woods with hazel branches and canvas tarpaulin, install a windmill or a solar panel and live quite comfortably using low-level technology that has been created by 'manipulating' nature.

And when the solar panels and windmill wear out then what?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Or I can choose to build a huge housing estate, with no community facilities and thus is a breeding ground for kids gang crime and drug dealers, and which has completely obliterated the habitat of the last remaining population of 'Joe Bloggs' butterflies.

I've never been a fan of our modern greed based civilisation, I do however have a great deal of respect for science and nature!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Yes fine, manipulate nature if you want to, but do it according to sustainable, natural principles, not according to capitalist greed principles.

I couldn't agree more!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') :cry:
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Postby RobintheDruid » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 12:00:35

sjn wrote:
"These problems don't exist in the void of space. If we can use GM to create species that can survive and thrive on lifeless bodies in the solar system then I would be absolutely all for it."

What you mean like something out of a certain Alan Dean Foster novel?

Anyone know Ripley's telephone number? Yikes!

:shock:
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Postby PeakKYJelly » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 19:42:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ream on. Its capitalism thats destroying the world, full stop. Capitalism is like a cancer that has to be cut out, or a parasite that has to be killed off.

I have to agree with you. The most capitalist countries are the ones with the lowest standards of living. Look at America, for instance. The standard of living is so horrible that absolutely no one wants to come here. Especially across the Mexican border; there hasn't been any activity there in decades. Now, the Communist countries, those are paragons of great living for their citizens, and all that high technology coming out of their countries too. Let's see, didn't they invent the light bulb, the airplane, the car, the television, the computer, and the Internet [Al Goresky]. Yes, capitalism is sure one big stinking failure, ain't it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd anyway, what gives us the right to colonise space anyway

In the future, the sun will expand and engulf the Earth. Unless we have moved off planet, our race will be toast. If you wish to die since you are obviously a self-hating human, you can, but why expect everyone else to follow you lemming-like to their doom?
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Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 04:16:42

"Now, the Communist countries, those are paragons of great living for their citizens, and all that high technology coming out of their countries too. Let's see, didn't they invent the light bulb, the airplane, the car, the television, the computer, and the Internet [Al Goresky]. Yes, capitalism is sure one big stinking failure, ain't it?"


Wow, talk about miss the point. He wasn't saying that capitalism hasn't built planes, trains and automobiles, or privided its' citizens with good living standards. The problem is the rampant consumption without a care of anything else.

That point went over your head like a 747.
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Postby Phetro » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 15:51:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakKYJelly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ream on. Its capitalism thats destroying the world, full stop. Capitalism is like a cancer that has to be cut out, or a parasite that has to be killed off.

I have to agree with you. The most capitalist countries are the ones with the lowest standards of living. Look at America, for instance. The standard of living is so horrible that absolutely no one wants to come here. Especially across the Mexican border; there hasn't been any activity there in decades. Now, the Communist countries, those are paragons of great living for their citizens, and all that high technology coming out of their countries too. Let's see, didn't they invent the light bulb, the airplane, the car, the television, the computer, and the Internet [Al Goresky]. Yes, capitalism is sure one big stinking failure, ain't it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd anyway, what gives us the right to colonise space anyway

In the future, the sun will expand and engulf the Earth. Unless we have moved off planet, our race will be toast. If you wish to die since you are obviously a self-hating human, you can, but why expect everyone else to follow you lemming-like to their doom?


While the average citizen in the West does indeed enjoy access to more convenience, comfort, and entertainment, he will suffer ten times more from Peak Oil than his communist/third world counterpart, who will merely continue life as usual, largely free of dependence upon technology and luxury. This is not so much to say that "suffering is bad and pleasure is good" as to say that access to technology and inventions does not a better person make, despite the tremendous effort many people expend glorifying themselves and others for it. As far as viewing suffering objectively, I would go so far as to say that many Western citizens have known material wealth at the expense of so much of the rest of the world's population--the side of capitalism that capitalists so conveniently ignore and deny--that some good old fashioned suffering will balance out their mindsets a bit. The very problem with capitalism is that it has led its people to think they ARE better than everyone else--that somehow they are entitled to whatever comforts they can squeeze out of the earth and the rest of its inhabitants, just because they are able to do so.

The better person, however, is the one who is happy during feast AND famine, and the one who gives instead of taking, not the one who, no matter how much material he has, is insatiable in his quest for more. In light of this, the idea of capitalism as a productive approach to either political or social activities is absurd. Communism would, for its part, work much more effectively were it not corrupted by the petty aspirations of its leaders, who have usually preached equality while living luxury, and exploiting their own people in the process.

In studying "people" rather than "systems," however, one can easily see that on a social scale, both capitalism and communism result in a great many suffering for the comfort and convenience of a few. A fool might look up to these few, might even call them "elite." The biggest fools might aspire to become them, and some do.

The best thing to do is to become free of things of this world, not increasingly attached to them. The latter is the goal of capitalism, the former that of those who, as opposed to the successful capitalists (normally successful due more to a combination of ruthlessness and selfishness than any sort of desirable qualities), actually deserve the title "Elite." To the extent that you can accomplish this freedom of worldliness, you will be unaffected by Peak Oil, or any other technological/economic depression.
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Postby CarnbY » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 15:59:43

Well said Phetro, great first post! :)
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Postby PeakKYJelly » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 19:16:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best thing to do is to become free of things of this world, not increasingly attached to them. The latter is the goal of capitalism, the former that of those who, as opposed to the successful capitalists (normally successful due more to a combination of ruthlessness and selfishness than any sort of desirable qualities), actually deserve the title "Elite."


I really don't subscribe to the theory that God or whoever our creator is gave us a body, then wants us to completely ignore it and pretend like it doesn't exist. Whoever created us wants us to use our bodies to their fullest abilities; the self-delusion that desire causes suffering is not one anyone should yearn for.
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Postby ubercrap » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 19:29:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakKYJelly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best thing to do is to become free of things of this world, not increasingly attached to them. The latter is the goal of capitalism, the former that of those who, as opposed to the successful capitalists (normally successful due more to a combination of ruthlessness and selfishness than any sort of desirable qualities), actually deserve the title "Elite."


I really don't subscribe to the theory that God or whoever our creator is gave us a body, then wants us to completely ignore it and pretend like it doesn't exist. Whoever created us wants us to use our bodies to their fullest abilities; the self-delusion that desire causes suffering is not one anyone should yearn for.


That "delusion" is a core part of Buddhism...
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Postby Phetro » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 21:53:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakKYJelly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best thing to do is to become free of things of this world, not increasingly attached to them. The latter is the goal of capitalism, the former that of those who, as opposed to the successful capitalists (normally successful due more to a combination of ruthlessness and selfishness than any sort of desirable qualities), actually deserve the title "Elite."


I really don't subscribe to the theory that God or whoever our creator is gave us a body, then wants us to completely ignore it and pretend like it doesn't exist. Whoever created us wants us to use our bodies to their fullest abilities; the self-delusion that desire causes suffering is not one anyone should yearn for.



Greed and expectation are the culprits in one's own undoing, not the body--it would be foolish to blame the driver's actions on the vehicle--and I would be the last one to say we should not "use our bodies to their fullest." In fact, use of the body, mind, and soul is exactly why we are here. But over-industrializing civilizations and killing nature, all while exploiting financially less-endowed indigenous peoples all in the relentless attempt to maximize your personal income, is not only counterproductive, it is destructive, and highly so. That is not using anything to its fullest. That is using things to benefit yourself at the expense of others. Capitalism--and to a large degree science, although not always knowingly or even willingly in the case of the latter--have done precisely this.

That desire causes suffering (whether for those with the desire or others, and whether acutely perceived or not), is most certainly fact. For simple proof of this, watch a child's reaction when a toy is taken away at bedtime. For more proof, watch an adult's reaction to paying taxes. Both are suffering from frustration, which any reasonable person would consider an affliction caused by: greed (material desire beyond what is necessary), followed by expectation (of not losing the thing). This concept led to a saying, now admittedly trite in many of its variations, but no less true than when it was first uttered: "expect nothing, and nothing can disappoint you."

The bottom line is, all things of this world are temporary. With that in mind, it only makes sense to place acquisition of wealth and technology last in one's priorities, and far behind the well-being of other life. The undeniable truth is that capitalism not only fails to do this, but encourages the direct opposite. Whoever dies with the most stuff, as it were, doesn't win. In fact, he or she has the most to lose...
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Postby Phetro » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 22:03:31

CarnbY: why, thank you!
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Re: What if Peak Oil never happens?

Postby Robert-Johnsson » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 17:14:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakKYJelly', 'W')hat if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?


well......."IF" .... I´ll pay whatever you want....... Do You prefer cash or check?...You want US dollars?...oops..the dollar is Chinese property now...oh well......
:roll:
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Postby bruin » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 18:09:29

If we assume that we do not have an energy crunch, that some other energy source works out, we still have a huge list of problems from the loss of oil.

Think of all the products produced that are oil-based. All of these will need to change from oil to stay economically viable to produce.

So even if our energy problems work out, PO will still have a massive effect on our society.
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Postby MaterialExcess » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 19:55:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', '"')We can expand into space."

Um, I'm sorry to break this to you Captain Kirk but space isn't as inviting as you seem to think it is, it's cold, desolate and useless. There's a reason you were born on the Earth, and "leaving" it is a pretty stupid notion.


Plus eventually we would run into Peak Universe anyway ;-) Actually, there have been interesting studies on how the expansion of the universe may not stop and may end with the Big Nothing. At this point the matter/energy is spread so far apart that no life form could survive.
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Postby lotrfan55345 » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 20:19:38

You know what.... .the world is really flat and infinite. So that means theres infinite oil. KK
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Postby Omnitir » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 03:29:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', '
')Think of all the products produced that are oil-based. All of these will need to change from oil to stay economically viable to produce.

So even if our energy problems work out, PO will still have a massive effect on our society.

It is true that our dependence on oil in many products will cause massive problems in the future with PO, but in the hypothetical situation of an alternative energy source solving the energy problems, PO would be moved far into the future, giving us enough time to devise alternatives to oil use in products. Currently most of the oil produced is burnt as a fuel source, and only a small fraction of that is used in products. If no oil was used for fuel (because of hypothetical alternative cheap fuel), then PO would be a long way off.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', '
')"We can expand into space."

Um, I'm sorry to break this to you Captain Kirk but space isn't as inviting as you seem to think it is, it's cold, desolate and useless. There's a reason you were born on the Earth, and "leaving" it is a pretty stupid notion.

Sorry to break this to you Captain Clueless, but space has a lot more to offer then you realise.
“it's cold, desolate and useless.”
No, it’s not just cold, it’s both extremely cold, and extremely hot, filled with much more heat and energy then can be found on Earth. But we can shield ourselves from the extreme conditions of space, as we have been doing for decades.

No it’s far from desolate, filled not only with massive amount of energy in the form of solar radiation, but MASSIVE amounts of resources, just in our solar system alone. Everything industrial humans need, from raw mineral materials to water and carbon-based molecules (and fuels) can be found in large quantities throughout the solar system.

And as for useless, you are most certainly misinformed. If humans could begin space industrialisation, the solar system has more then enough resources to provide for the human race for tens of thousands of years.

Yes there is a reason we were born on the Earth; we evolved here. But the notion of leaving it is far less stupid then the notion of staying here only to become extinct in the near future. Yet that is what we have chosen. The human race is indeed stupid.

I apologise for the vehemence of my post, but Battle_Scarred_Galactico’s thoughtless comments reminded me of the stupidity of the human race, which tends to get me aggravated…


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', '
')eventually we would run into Peak Universe

Interesting notion, though I believe for that to be possible, we would need to be able to travel many times the speed of light. Realistically, If we did manage to become some kind of galactic supercivilisation, we would not be able to consume everything before all the stars of the galaxy burn out and die. Imagining such a time frame is nearly impossible, and not exactly something to worry about and start planning for. ;)
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Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 04:05:08

"At this point the matter/energy is spread so far apart that no life form could survive."

Eventually yes, but you're getting a bit ahead there, we've got a few more pressing issues first :)

well I am sorry Omni for upsetting you, will you please lay out your amazing space colonization plans in practical terms ? You don't seem to realize how "spaced out" things are out there in the final frontier, it's not a matter of popping out to get some firewood, how are you going to power your big USS starfleet ships ? How are you going to sustain your population with oxygen, food, water, heat ?
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Postby Doly » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 04:06:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'B')ut the notion of leaving it is far less stupid then the notion of staying here only to become extinct in the near future. Yet that is what we have chosen. The human race is indeed stupid.


Sorry, but mass leaving the planet is simply not feasible unless we suddenly discover amounts of energy several orders of magnitude greater than we have now. If you aren't thinking about mass leaving, but just leaving individually, that still leaves a problem for the 99.99999% of people who stay.
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