Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

How many people already knew ?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What % of people were already aware of Peak Oil when you 1st mentioned it to them?

0
28
No votes
1-25
28
No votes
26-50
1
No votes
51-75
0
0%
76-100
0
0%
 
Total votes : 57

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 16:39:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'D')ear Shortonsense

However, I do know this: there is a problem with finite resources. Whether it comes tomorrow, next year, decade, or century we are in for trouble.


It is hard to deny this statement. It is worth noting, however, it has been possible to say it for the past 1000 years as reasonably as you do now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '
') I look out my window over HK as I write this, knowing there are several million people just right there living in a space that the society cannot remotely feed and struggles to house. And then I think about the 83 million people living half an hour away in the factory of the world, Guangdong, and I can't get my head around how they are going to live the life to which we are accustomed.


Well, this sounds completely reasonable, and is completely irrelevant. HK and China are NEVER going to live the life to which we ( Americans I presume? ) have become accustomed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '
')
Can you really believe human ingenuity is going to solve that in a relatively short time? Go on give me same graphs and stuff..


Because elevating any significant portion of the world population to an American standard of living can't happen, it certainly doesn't require being "solved" unless you view it as a requirement that all humankind must live in "American Utopia"? Some here seem to argue regularly that its even a BAD thing ( bad, connotation as in morally wrong ) to desire such a thing, let alone work to "solve" it to make it possible.

And how short is "short"? A decade? A century? We're 2 centuries past the Malthusian catastrophe from which many of these pessimistics views seem to flow, and your original statement in paragraph 1 still applies. Another couple of centuries, and maybe we'll REALLY be worried? Another millenium?

Human ingenuity, and its cumulative effect on humanity as it reverberates down through the ages, is difficult to predict in advance, nearly invisible at the point of origin, and because of its non linear nature is near impossible to factor in to any reasonable prediction of the future. But like a snowball starting an avalanche.....

It would be nice if there were charts and graphs showing that every 12.9 years there is a seismic shift which allows another billion here or there to thrive, or an efficiency gain which shows up and allows BAU and happy motoring using liquid fuels to continue for another half century, but there aren't any.

A species which has the ability to turn things which are unusable and near worthless in their original forms, geologic waste products that are nasty, sticky, stinky sludge, into a transport fuel for the globe, does not strike me as one that ought to be underestimated. IMHO


That sounds like cornucopia to me. Meanwhile I'm gonna stock up 5 years worth of canned goods and make sure my vegetable garden is protected from the ravaging zombie hordes.
User avatar
Serial_Worrier
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1549
Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 17:08:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')A species which has the ability to turn things which are unusable and near worthless in their original forms, geologic waste products that are nasty, sticky, stinky sludge, into a transport fuel for the globe, does not strike me as one that ought to be underestimated. IMHO


That sounds like cornucopia to me. Meanwhile I'm gonna stock up 5 years worth of canned goods and make sure my vegetable garden is protected from the ravaging zombie hordes.


Sounds good to me. One of the beauties of peak oil ( past, present or future) is it can be used as an excuse for nearly anything, buying guns or gold ( or bows and arrows and silver ), gardens or bomb shelters, dumping a significant other for not "believing", or hooking up with someone who does, quitting a job, keeping a job, you name it.

In the meantime, on topic, I learned about peak oil from this guy.

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/detail. ... &co_list=F
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 22:37:07

Most of the people I work with are aware of the concept of Peak Oil. But I work in an oilfield that has been declining in production at a steady rate since 1986, even though everyone here has seen billions thrown at trying to maintain the rates.
Some don't agree that the conditions in this field translates to the same situation world wide, but they are usually the dumb ones. Most of the smart ones don't try to deny it.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 23:01:14

I've been debating this topic on other internet forums for at least 4 years, with widespread participation in most of these discussions, so I *know* a lot of people have heard of the topic for at least several years.

Here's one example from a random internet forum (Stormfront, a racist site - no I'm not one of the people participating in *this* discussion, lol): Introduction to peak oil crash. Notice it was started on May 31, 2004, more than 5 years ago.

If even your average trailer park racists were discussing it five years ago, then in all likelihood it's been a widely-known concept for some time.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 23:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'ve been debating this topic on other internet forums for at least 4 years, with widespread participation in most of these discussions, so I *know* a lot of people have heard of the topic for at least several years.

Here's one example from a random internet forum (Stormfront, a racist site - no I'm not one of the people participating in *this* discussion, lol): Introduction to peak oil crash. Notice it was started on May 31, 2004, more than 5 years ago.

If even your average trailer park racists were discussing it five years ago, then in all likelihood it's been a widely-known concept for some time.


The problem with much of what passes for knowledge however is that it does not really address the problem. Living beyond our means.

Most of the solutions I have come across invariably involve replacing the oil bank with the windmill bank or, freeing up the bank's processes in a bid to unleash innovation or, in the case of racists, blaming the beggars outside the bank. It's not occurred to most that spending up on tomorrows savings is bad no matter whether you shift to the windmill bank, reinvent the bank or exterminate all the beggars surrounding the bank.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby Maddog78 » Fri 18 Sep 2009, 10:31:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'ve been debating this topic on other internet forums for at least 4 years, with widespread participation in most of these discussions, so I *know* a lot of people have heard of the topic for at least several years.

Here's one example from a random internet forum (Stormfront, a racist site - no I'm not one of the people participating in *this* discussion, lol): Introduction to peak oil crash. Notice it was started on May 31, 2004, more than 5 years ago.

If even your average trailer park racists were discussing it five years ago, then in all likelihood it's been a widely-known concept for some time.



Interesting.
There are some real dumb asses on there. Too be fair though there's a few that seem to be fairly knowledgeable about the concept.
Some of the real dumb asses need to come here or other dedicated sites to learn a few things but they probably won't.
User avatar
Maddog78
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon 14 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby turner » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 12:37:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Well, this sounds completely reasonable, and is completely irrelevant. HK and China are NEVER going to live the life to which we ( Americans I presume? ) have become accustomed.


No, probably not, but they are striving for the life Western people have and that's going to use a lot of oil and other resources whether they achieve it or not. China seems to me to be making lots of sensible decisions and setting up the country for the future. Of course they have massive problems that will ultimately curtail their growth but in the meantime they are going to expand and put huge pressure on a range of resources.
User avatar
turner
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue 10 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 13:40:15

Every nation has known about PO since at least 1939.

It's no accident that EVERY offensive goal was to capture
oil. Ploesti:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')erman air defenses

Following the June 1942 HALPRO (Halverson project) raid against Ploiesti (the first American mission against a European target), Luftwaffe General Alfred Gerstenberg built one of the heaviest and best-integrated air defense networks in Europe. Defenses included several hundred anti-aircraft artillery pieces (105 mm -- 88 mm)) and small-caliber guns in haystacks and false structures (e.g., false-sided rolling stock that was actually mobile).[citation needed] A Luftwaffe air command center in Lipesk controlled three fighter groups (Bf 110 night fighters & Bf 109s) within flight range of Ploiesti[4]:157


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '#')
#
Wilhelm List : Nazi Germany
The Maikop oil fields, producing annually two and a half million tons of oil, had been captured on August 8, though the Germans found them almost completely ...
www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWlist.htm


Oil Embargo launches Pearl Harbor. 1932 SoCal discovers Saudi Oil. 1933 KSA founded. And on and on...

1970 US Peaks. 1971 Nixon refuses to sell $ to Gold. 1974 American Workers richest they'll ever be.

2001 Oil Plateau Reached War of Terror begins. 2nd Largest Oil Field Captured by US March 2003.

May 2005 World PO US Housing Crash begins.

The next Event will be the Biggest Event in your Life as we move into the Olduvai Gorge.
mcgowanjm
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 15:18:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')The next Event will be the Biggest Event in your Life as we move into the Olduvai Gorge.


That happened in 2008 EEK GADES MAN!!! Surely you didn't MISS IT!
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Sat 19 Sep 2009, 17:51:55

Isn't it curious that the Brits and Americans also happened to have picked the most backward family in KSA to run the show like a fiefdom.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'E')very nation has known about PO since at least 1939.

It's no accident that EVERY offensive goal was to capture
oil. Ploesti:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')erman air defenses

Following the June 1942 HALPRO (Halverson project) raid against Ploiesti (the first American mission against a European target), Luftwaffe General Alfred Gerstenberg built one of the heaviest and best-integrated air defense networks in Europe. Defenses included several hundred anti-aircraft artillery pieces (105 mm -- 88 mm)) and small-caliber guns in haystacks and false structures (e.g., false-sided rolling stock that was actually mobile).[citation needed] A Luftwaffe air command center in Lipesk controlled three fighter groups (Bf 110 night fighters & Bf 109s) within flight range of Ploiesti[4]:157


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '#')
#
Wilhelm List : Nazi Germany
The Maikop oil fields, producing annually two and a half million tons of oil, had been captured on August 8, though the Germans found them almost completely ...
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWlist.htm


Oil Embargo launches Pearl Harbor. 1932 SoCal discovers Saudi Oil. 1933 KSA founded. And on and on...

1970 US Peaks. 1971 Nixon refuses to sell $ to Gold. 1974 American Workers richest they'll ever be.

2001 Oil Plateau Reached War of Terror begins. 2nd Largest Oil Field Captured by US March 2003.

May 2005 World PO US Housing Crash begins.

The next Event will be the Biggest Event in your Life as we move into the Olduvai Gorge.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 20 Sep 2009, 09:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')The next Event will be the Biggest Event in your Life as we move into the Olduvai Gorge.


That happened in 2008 EEK GADES MAN!!! Surely you didn't MISS IT!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"Be prepared for change, and adapt to the change that is coming. And get ready for a great, great loss of life during the process," he said.


There won't be a chance to "miss it". For Ex.- Your TV will be transmitting w/o commercial break. For hours on end. I can't
recall one hour of commercial free TV in 2008. Maybe bush43
announcing Paulson's taking over Gov't for Goldman. ;}
mcgowanjm
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 20 Sep 2009, 09:29:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')sn't it curious that the Brits and Americans also happened to have picked the most backward family in KSA to run the show like a fiefdom.


Always the fatal flaw of Empire. Either the puppet is too weak, too
corrupt, or too cruel.
mcgowanjm
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Sun 20 Sep 2009, 15:26:02

Additionally, the puppets brand of spin, namely Wahhabism, will prove to be a running sore with the Emipire. Not a fatal one, but neverthelless, one that will prove to be troublesome.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')sn't it curious that the Brits and Americans also happened to have picked the most backward family in KSA to run the show like a fiefdom.


Always the fatal flaw of Empire. Either the puppet is too weak, too
corrupt, or too cruel.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby hillsidedigger » Sun 20 Sep 2009, 18:58:07

I think most people are aware that there's likely a very troubled future lurking somewhere just ahead be in from oil-decline, pollution, war or whatever but most people had rather spend their days ignoring such possible scenario's.
User avatar
hillsidedigger
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Sun 31 May 2009, 22:31:27
Location: Way up North in the Land of Cotton.

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 20 Sep 2009, 19:43:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hillsidedigger', 'I') think most people are aware that there's likely a very troubled future lurking somewhere just ahead be in from oil-decline, pollution, war or whatever but most people had rather spend their days ignoring such possible scenario's.


I think you are quite right, and quite a bit of that "troubled future" is actually now in the past. Malthus had very real concerns, and those concerns, through time, have cycled between "gee wasn't THAT a stupid idea" to "gee, maybe we should pay more attention".

For centuries now, the world has always had a troubled future. And when those "troubles" didn't pan out, we invented new ones ( like oil ) to worry about. I can't wait till some chicken little or another, after staring at a graph of solar variation for a day jumps screaming to their feet and screams "peaks! I see peaks! If solar flux hitting our planet drops from 1300 w/m^2 to 1250 w/m^2 we're all gonna die!!"

There are real concerns. We should actually strive to collect people back to the old experts forums rather than just making up the title and assigning it to the true believers or high post counts around here. We need people who have actually published in peer viewed journals on these topics, I learned about this stuff decades ago, others could have as well.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby graham » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 22:48:03

I work in the architectural profession, oddly most people seem aware of the issue. Probably because we're all technofix obsessed greens.
User avatar
graham
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 97
Joined: Fri 20 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: U.K.

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby WildRose » Fri 02 Oct 2009, 12:23:40

I think lots of people have heard about the concept or read about it. Over the last few years, I've noticed quite a number of
articles in mainstream magazines, and watched news stories and documentaries on TV. I figure the readership of those magazines
probably read the articles and the documentaries must have been watched by some. Oil depletion is discussed in schools, even
at the grade five or six level. University students seem to be fairly knowledgeable.

But a lot of people don't approach the problem mathematically - percentages of decline in the major oil fields; increase in oil demand as we build
bigger homes, drive larger vehicles, use more technology, increase population; decline in new oil finds and what that means to the overall outlook.
What I hear often are statements like, "Well, did you hear they're drilling a lot deeper in the ocean now?" or "They'll find more; they always do."
So, while information is getting out there, my feeling is that one has to investigate the topic a little more to understand ramifications and so on.
User avatar
WildRose
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1881
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 03:00:00

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Fri 02 Oct 2009, 19:43:16

We are constantly being assailed to get into debt, spend like theres no tomorrow, keep up with the Joneses, be the most civilised (which invariably means, devote our societies to wasteful consumption and competition).

Then occasionally, theres the odd divergence to maintain the pretense of democracy.

The overwhelming message however is one of the triumph of capitalism which in turn tends to preference us towards its overwhelming power to overcome anything, unsurprisingly.

This can be seen in China, that epitome of the bizarre confluence of the irreconciliable, where the triumphalism of capitalism now finds them playing god with the weather.

I would watch these very same blinkered individuals undergo a Damascene conversion when resource depletion becomes unavoidably obvious. :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'I') think lots of people have heard about the concept or read about it. Over the last few years, I've noticed quite a number of
articles in mainstream magazines, and watched news stories and documentaries on TV. I figure the readership of those magazines
probably read the articles and the documentaries must have been watched by some. Oil depletion is discussed in schools, even
at the grade five or six level. University students seem to be fairly knowledgeable.

But a lot of people don't approach the problem mathematically - percentages of decline in the major oil fields; increase in oil demand as we build
bigger homes, drive larger vehicles, use more technology, increase population; decline in new oil finds and what that means to the overall outlook.
What I hear often are statements like, "Well, did you hear they're drilling a lot deeper in the ocean now?" or "They'll find more; they always do."
So, while information is getting out there, my feeling is that one has to investigate the topic a little more to understand ramifications and so on.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

cron