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PeakOil is You

How many people already knew ?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What % of people were already aware of Peak Oil when you 1st mentioned it to them?

0
28
No votes
1-25
28
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26-50
1
No votes
51-75
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0%
76-100
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0%
 
Total votes : 57

Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby TWilliam » Sun 13 Sep 2009, 18:48:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he media publishes what gets ratings - look at the timeline at the top of this search:
http://news.google.com/archivesearch?um ... %22&cf=all

One thing I find interesting is that when I zoom in on just this year, that graph pretty much mirrors the price of gasoline, at least around here. It was falling through most of the first part of the year, I seem to recall a brief spike around April or so followed by a drop, and it's been creeping pretty steadily upward since the beginning of Summer. Regular is back over $3/gal at some area stations. 'End of the recession'? I don't think so, not if the trend continues that's for sure.

I think Aaron is right that interest in the issue (and traffic at this site) tracks gasoline prices...
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Sun 13 Sep 2009, 18:57:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') can't understand why it isn't discussed more, and despite my reluctance to accept conspiracy theories, it is almost like the topic is suppressed.

Having said that, the nature of the press is headlines, not in depth analysis and discussion.

Petrol is back up to 108.9 p per litre at some places round here, there wasn't a peep from the press when it passed £1. Whats that translate to in dollars / gallon?


My clients who are invariably the well heeled and CEO's of multi-nationals look at their balance sheets and the business news for information about the world. Peak oil will only matter to these sorts of people when it cripples their business terminally. By then it will be clear to all but the most uninformed that energy's extraction costs have exceeded its profit premium and that the games up. The media is largley owned by subsidiaries of these private business and indirectly, these affluent individuals. They simply do not want to know about their terminal condition. They invariably laugh at you with a shrug of their shoulders when you mention the issue. Try being an editor or journalist employed by these clowns.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby Laurasia » Sun 13 Sep 2009, 20:18:23

I told several people when I first became aware of Peak Oil in 2004 - none had heard of the concept before, BUT my Mum "got it" instantly! My younger son, who is in the military, got it also - the older one not so much (techno-fix, etc). Nobody at work really got it and I got the impression I needed to shut up talking about it, which I did.

So my answer to the poll was 0%.

Regards,

L.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 15 Sep 2009, 15:29:00

yes very few understand

but you could say the same about

climate change
ozone depletion
over population


OVERPOPULATION: denial ....." it's not just a river in Africa "

Mark Twain ( is that right? )
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Tue 15 Sep 2009, 16:34:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'y')es very few understand

but you could say the same about

climate change
ozone depletion
over population


OVERPOPULATION: denial ....." it's not just a river in Africa "

Mark Twain ( is that right? )


I am saying precisely that AND, that they will not understand for as long as it ensures that they will duly consume and preserve the bottom line.

What little progress we made in the west (and ex-communist states) in matters pertaining to childbearing and women's rights tended to be as a consequence of anti-status-quo initiatives long since neutralised.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby turner » Wed 16 Sep 2009, 12:45:43

I had a friend come and stay with me a couple of weeks ago with her two 14 year old girls (former schoolmates of my daughter). We were having a lengthy discussion about the future and politics etc when one of the girls mentioned that Peak Oil was going to have a big impact on the future. I was amazed that she knew anything about it but evidently they were being taught about Peak Oil in school. These girls go to an expensive private girls school which made it doubly surprising. It must be on the government mandated curriculum, but interestingly it had not been passed over with the usual denials. They had a real sense of the urgency and gravity of the situation. I think that may have been somewhat a product of the opinions of the Geography teachers at that particular school. Of course my daughter said 'Don't get mum started on Peak Oil', but we did have a good conversation and a couple of weeks later she came home from school with a critique of her own Geography textbook's section on Peak Oil which presented a rosier picture. My heart sang realising that she had actually listened and taken in what has been said in our household, despite being compelled to do the usual teenage denial of your parent's opinion thing!

Another thing I've noticed with my boys (11) is that they have been doing a weekly project on countries of the world in which one of the questions is about the major energy sources of each country. Interestingly, they have argued with me about the actual energy sources (usually oil and coal) and contended that it's solar, wind etc. They have learnt so much about sustainable power that they actually believe, at their young age, that this is what is happening.

Obviously there are changes afoot but probably too late. The only thing I can take from my kids education is that they will be more receptive to my plans and preparations and may actually engage in the process for their own long term benefit.

Whilst most of my close family and friends think I'm a bit doomerish I can see that I am gradually making headway. I guess having put my money into an alternative makes them take what I say a little more seriously. My husband was on board with me buying a rural property despite not having actually seen it. My 73 year old mum uses 'green shoots' and the f word in the same sentence, and despite not being totally Peak Oil knowledgeable, thinks that society's current consumerist ways are totally unsustainable - she was pretty conservative prior. My closest girlfriend says she's coming to bottle tomatoes and drink home made wine and eat homemade olives, LOL. I've told her don't hold yer breath on the wine and olives! And my closest male friend is going to build a strawbale studio on my property and get involved in all that I'm planning to do.

I actually feel I am making some headway. Maybe too late and too little but it's something.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby turner » Wed 16 Sep 2009, 12:47:22

Oh and I forgot to mention, in the early days I talked to 4 people who actually knew anything about PO.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 16 Sep 2009, 23:49:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'O')h and I forgot to mention, in the early days I talked to 4 people who actually knew anything about PO.


A few points on this wishful thinking:

1 This hippie bs has been dribbling along since the 60's. It's now big business (an alternative for every occasion) and no doubt someone will make a fast buck out of peak oil.

2 We crossed that one bridge too far when we irreversibly exported our suicidal lifestyle to billions in Asia.

3 No empowered and influential CEO/politician/charismatic preachers/affluent investor etc, etc is going to kill the goose thats laying his golden egg.

4 You'll get meaningless gestures for an hour or two at school (now kids we must save the planet by recycling our milk bottles) each day and then for the next whatever hours of a childs waking day, they will be subject to a barrage of ads pushing the latest fad from every quarter.

This society expends the vast bulk of its resources selling goods to us. What does it say of its real direction?
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby turner » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 03:14:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'O')h and I forgot to mention, in the early days I talked to 4 people who actually knew anything about PO.


A few points on this wishful thinking:

1 This hippie bs has been dribbling along since the 60's. It's now big business (an alternative for every occasion) and no doubt someone will make a fast buck out of peak oil.

2 We crossed that one bridge too far when we irreversibly exported our suicidal lifestyle to billions in Asia.

3 No empowered and influential CEO/politician/charismatic preachers/affluent investor etc, etc is going to kill the goose thats laying his golden egg.

4 You'll get meaningless gestures for an hour or two at school (now kids we must save the planet by recycling our milk bottles) each day and then for the next whatever hours of a childs waking day, they will be subject to a barrage of ads pushing the latest fad from every quarter.

This society expends the vast bulk of its resources selling goods to us. What does it say of its real direction?



Yes I know all that and you are right of course. But what do we do? Carry on sucking up everything we can or try to live a good and decent life before the die off?
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 03:36:05

Theres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.

edit: to prempt a quick transition. Trying to reform this cancerous beast will make the recovery all the less likely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'O')h and I forgot to mention, in the early days I talked to 4 people who actually knew anything about PO.


A few points on this wishful thinking:

1 This hippie bs has been dribbling along since the 60's. It's now big business (an alternative for every occasion) and no doubt someone will make a fast buck out of peak oil.

2 We crossed that one bridge too far when we irreversibly exported our suicidal lifestyle to billions in Asia.

3 No empowered and influential CEO/politician/charismatic preachers/affluent investor etc, etc is going to kill the goose thats laying his golden egg.

4 You'll get meaningless gestures for an hour or two at school (now kids we must save the planet by recycling our milk bottles) each day and then for the next whatever hours of a childs waking day, they will be subject to a barrage of ads pushing the latest fad from every quarter.

This society expends the vast bulk of its resources selling goods to us. What does it say of its real direction?



Yes I know all that and you are right of course. But what do we do? Carry on sucking up everything we can or try to live a good and decent life before the die off?
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 04:01:14

There are a lot of people who know a little about it, but I would say that 1 in 100 knows what peak oil really means.

Nobody wants to hear anything about it around here.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby davep » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 04:32:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')heres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.


Rubbish. There's lots that can be done. Whether it is effective will only become apparent later.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 04:45:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')heres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.


Rubbish. There's lots that can be done. Whether it is effective will only become apparent later.


Rubbish. There's nothing one can do. It doesn't take a great deal of intelligence to determine that western modes of consuming finite resources, maximised across the rest of the planets population, notwithstanding elastoplast remedies, is a train heading for a crash.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby davep » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 08:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')heres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.


Rubbish. There's lots that can be done. Whether it is effective will only become apparent later.


Rubbish. There's nothing one can do. It doesn't take a great deal of intelligence to determine that western modes of consuming finite resources, maximised across the rest of the planets population, notwithstanding elastoplast remedies, is a train heading for a crash.


As a society, I agree. But that doesn't stop individuals from prepping for a change in society.
Last edited by davep on Thu 17 Sep 2009, 10:16:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 08:50:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')here are a lot of people who know a little about it, but I would say that 1 in 100 knows what peak oil really means.

Nobody wants to hear anything about it around here.


The problem is, what does peak oil REALLY mean? Is it the dispassionate graph of peaking oil production and nothing more? In which case we can hand out graphs, nod solemnly when people ask, "has it happened yet?", and move on, secure in the knowledge that it certainly wasn't all it was cracked up to be.

If its that graph and THEN we have to layer on scenario's <pick your favorite>, well, is THAT really peak oil, or is it something more akin to "peak oil consequences"?

And this matters because quite a few people sure seem to believe that peak oil is more the most ridiculous consequence they can dream up rather than just a peak in global oil production, historical in nature, which was so traumatic that some are claiming its being hidden in some sort of near conspiracy. Call me crazy, but NOT being able to hide peak oil consequences from regular people was the entire POINT of peak oil consequences...before it actually happened and we got a better view of what the post peak world looked like.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 10:28:03

Maybe I'm cold-blooded, but its hard to sympathize with people when you try to open their eyes to the truth and help them and get greeted with stupidity.

This is why I am digging in and working to hide my preps behind a wall of evergreens and thorn hedges.

When I'm fully prepared, hidden, and dug in, everyone who was part of the problem, didn't want to hear that there was a problem, and is now starving, will get no help.

I'm actually starting to tell people I know that my garden sucks and the plants aren't growing well, and that I'm just going to start planting flowers, so they don't think to come to my place when TSHTF.

I also intend in the future to buy about a 2 year supply of canned foods and dry beans.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby Roy » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 11:17:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The problem is, what does peak oil REALLY mean?


Declining energy use per capita. That's what it means.
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 12:07:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The problem is, what does peak oil REALLY mean?


Declining energy use per capita. That's what it means.


Thats what Duncan said as well. Except he said it started in about 1970. And would result in permanent blackouts in 2008 as the world went off the Olduvai cliff.

Power is on here, how are you doing? :)

Lets say Duncan was right, at least prior to being proven wrong in 2008. The entire speculative human game, which many here were born in and thrived in, was ALWAYS taking place during the per capita energy slump since 1970, including the recent housing debacle, the fall of the Soviet Empire, a couple of wars in the Middle East, the invention of the internet and just about every significant event since Armstrong walked on the moon.

Why would anyone suppose that only NOW we are going to suddenly notice? Maybe...because...it just didn't matter when it started in 1970, and doesn't matter any more now? Efficiency has a way of sneaking up on an idea like this and KA POW!
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby turner » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 14:33:23

Dear Shortonsense

I have read so much of your stuff over the last year or so and have never responded. Why? Because I can't compete with your stats etc. But I do have an opinion that is mostly not relevant here because I'm not making quotes or including graphs and the like...

However, I do know this: there is a problem with finite resources. Whether it comes tomorrow, next year, decade, or century we are in for trouble. I look out my window over HK as I write this, knowing there are several million people just right there living in a space that the society cannot remotely feed and struggles to house. And then I think about the 83 million people living half an hour away in the factory of the world, Guangdong, and I can't get my head around how they are going to live the life to which we are accustomed. Beyond that it's even more unimaginable by our standards, another 1.2b. And then another 1bill in India also wanting to move up in the world. Just take a moment to think about the magnitude of those numbers and compare that to your life in the US - wealthy and 300m odd.
Can you really believe human ingenuity is going to solve that in a relatively short time? Go on give me same graphs and stuff..
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Re: How many people already knew ?

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 15:49:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'D')ear Shortonsense

However, I do know this: there is a problem with finite resources. Whether it comes tomorrow, next year, decade, or century we are in for trouble.


It is hard to deny this statement. It is worth noting, however, it has been possible to say it for the past 1000 years as reasonably as you do now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '
') I look out my window over HK as I write this, knowing there are several million people just right there living in a space that the society cannot remotely feed and struggles to house. And then I think about the 83 million people living half an hour away in the factory of the world, Guangdong, and I can't get my head around how they are going to live the life to which we are accustomed.


Well, this sounds completely reasonable, and is completely irrelevant. HK and China are NEVER going to live the life to which we ( Americans I presume? ) have become accustomed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '
')
Can you really believe human ingenuity is going to solve that in a relatively short time? Go on give me same graphs and stuff..


Because elevating any significant portion of the world population to an American standard of living can't happen, it certainly doesn't require being "solved" unless you view it as a requirement that all humankind must live in "American Utopia"? Some here seem to argue regularly that its even a BAD thing ( bad, connotation as in morally wrong ) to desire such a thing, let alone work to "solve" it to make it possible.

And how short is "short"? A decade? A century? We're 2 centuries past the Malthusian catastrophe from which many of these pessimistics views seem to flow, and your original statement in paragraph 1 still applies. Another couple of centuries, and maybe we'll REALLY be worried? Another millenium?

Human ingenuity, and its cumulative effect on humanity as it reverberates down through the ages, is difficult to predict in advance, nearly invisible at the point of origin, and because of its non linear nature is near impossible to factor in to any reasonable prediction of the future. But like a snowball starting an avalanche.....

It would be nice if there were charts and graphs showing that every 12.9 years there is a seismic shift which allows another billion here or there to thrive, or an efficiency gain which shows up and allows BAU and happy motoring using liquid fuels to continue for another half century, but there aren't any.

A species which has the ability to turn things which are unusable and near worthless in their original forms, geologic waste products that are nasty, sticky, stinky sludge, into a transport fuel for the globe, does not strike me as one that ought to be underestimated. IMHO
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