by turner » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 03:14:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'O')h and I forgot to mention, in the early days I talked to 4 people who actually knew anything about PO.
A few points on this wishful thinking:
1 This hippie bs has been dribbling along since the 60's. It's now big business (an alternative for every occasion) and no doubt someone will make a fast buck out of peak oil.
2 We crossed that one bridge too far when we irreversibly exported our suicidal lifestyle to billions in Asia.
3 No empowered and influential CEO/politician/charismatic preachers/affluent investor etc, etc is going to kill the goose thats laying his golden egg.
4 You'll get meaningless gestures for an hour or two at school (now kids we must save the planet by recycling our milk bottles) each day and then for the next whatever hours of a childs waking day, they will be subject to a barrage of ads pushing the latest fad from every quarter.
This society expends the vast bulk of its resources selling goods to us. What does it say of its real direction?
Yes I know all that and you are right of course. But what do we do? Carry on sucking up everything we can or try to live a good and decent life before the die off?
by americandream » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 03:36:05
Theres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.
edit: to prempt a quick transition. Trying to reform this cancerous beast will make the recovery all the less likely.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'O')h and I forgot to mention, in the early days I talked to 4 people who actually knew anything about PO.
A few points on this wishful thinking:
1 This hippie bs has been dribbling along since the 60's. It's now big business (an alternative for every occasion) and no doubt someone will make a fast buck out of peak oil.
2 We crossed that one bridge too far when we irreversibly exported our suicidal lifestyle to billions in Asia.
3 No empowered and influential CEO/politician/charismatic preachers/affluent investor etc, etc is going to kill the goose thats laying his golden egg.
4 You'll get meaningless gestures for an hour or two at school (now kids we must save the planet by recycling our milk bottles) each day and then for the next whatever hours of a childs waking day, they will be subject to a barrage of ads pushing the latest fad from every quarter.
This society expends the vast bulk of its resources selling goods to us. What does it say of its real direction?
Yes I know all that and you are right of course. But what do we do? Carry on sucking up everything we can or try to live a good and decent life before the die off?
by davep » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 04:32:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')heres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.
Rubbish. There's lots that can be done. Whether it is effective will only become apparent later.
What we think, we become.
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by americandream » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 04:45:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')heres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.
Rubbish. There's lots that can be done. Whether it is effective will only become apparent later.
Rubbish. There's nothing one can do. It doesn't take a great deal of intelligence to determine that western modes of consuming finite resources, maximised across the rest of the planets population, notwithstanding elastoplast remedies, is a train heading for a crash.
by davep » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 08:33:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')heres nothing anyone can do. History and time now drive this show. In fact, I would recommend a good dose of hedonism.
Rubbish. There's lots that can be done. Whether it is effective will only become apparent later.
Rubbish. There's nothing one can do. It doesn't take a great deal of intelligence to determine that western modes of consuming finite resources, maximised across the rest of the planets population, notwithstanding elastoplast remedies, is a train heading for a crash.
As a society, I agree. But that doesn't stop individuals from prepping for a change in society.
What we think, we become.
by shortonsense » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 12:07:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The problem is, what does peak oil REALLY mean?
Declining energy use per capita. That's what it means.
Thats what Duncan said as well. Except he said it started in about 1970. And would result in permanent blackouts in 2008 as the world went off the Olduvai cliff.
Power is on here, how are you doing?
Lets say Duncan was right, at least prior to being proven wrong in 2008. The entire speculative human game, which many here were born in and thrived in, was ALWAYS taking place during the per capita energy slump since 1970, including the recent housing debacle, the fall of the Soviet Empire, a couple of wars in the Middle East, the invention of the internet and just about every significant event since Armstrong walked on the moon.
Why would anyone suppose that only NOW we are going to suddenly notice? Maybe...because...it just didn't matter when it started in 1970, and doesn't matter any more now? Efficiency has a way of sneaking up on an idea like this and KA POW!
by shortonsense » Thu 17 Sep 2009, 15:49:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', 'D')ear Shortonsense
However, I do know this: there is a problem with finite resources. Whether it comes tomorrow, next year, decade, or century we are in for trouble.
It is hard to deny this statement. It is worth noting, however, it has been possible to say it for the past 1000 years as reasonably as you do now.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '
') I look out my window over HK as I write this, knowing there are several million people just right there living in a space that the society cannot remotely feed and struggles to house. And then I think about the 83 million people living half an hour away in the factory of the world, Guangdong, and I can't get my head around how they are going to live the life to which we are accustomed.
Well, this sounds completely reasonable, and is completely irrelevant. HK and China are NEVER going to live the life to which we ( Americans I presume? ) have become accustomed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '
')
Can you really believe human ingenuity is going to solve that in a relatively short time? Go on give me same graphs and stuff..
Because elevating any significant portion of the world population to an American standard of living can't happen, it certainly doesn't require being "solved" unless you view it as a requirement that all humankind must live in "American Utopia"? Some here seem to argue regularly that its even a BAD thing ( bad, connotation as in morally wrong ) to desire such a thing, let alone work to "solve" it to make it possible.
And how short is "short"? A decade? A century? We're 2 centuries past the Malthusian catastrophe from which many of these pessimistics views seem to flow, and your original statement in paragraph 1 still applies. Another couple of centuries, and maybe we'll REALLY be worried? Another millenium?
Human ingenuity, and its cumulative effect on humanity as it reverberates down through the ages, is difficult to predict in advance, nearly invisible at the point of origin, and because of its non linear nature is near impossible to factor in to any reasonable prediction of the future. But like a snowball starting an avalanche.....
It would be nice if there were charts and graphs showing that every 12.9 years there is a seismic shift which allows another billion here or there to thrive, or an efficiency gain which shows up and allows BAU and happy motoring using liquid fuels to continue for another half century, but there aren't any.
A species which has the ability to turn things which are unusable and near worthless in their original forms, geologic waste products that are nasty, sticky, stinky sludge, into a transport fuel for the globe, does not strike me as one that ought to be underestimated. IMHO