[TheDude]

No, that's not just my opinion. Actually I do read what they have to say, but anyway. Courtesy of Profit from the Peak author Chris Nelder: Reading Peak Oil Deniers Is a Waste of Time

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hree bombs were dropped on the peak oil community this week, in what smells like a coordinated attack timed to incite public uncertainty about the validity of the peak oil argument, and question the importance of mitigating climate change and transitioning to renewables.

The peakers are mobilizing a response, an onerous task made necessary only because their critics' bombs received prominent placement in major publications with large readerships, not because their critiques had any serious validity.

I will leave it to the capable hands of authentic petroleum geology experts to debunk the latest critiques. It is in order, however, to give the public a brief look at who these critics are, and their abysmal track records, which I have tracked and debunked since 1996.

[yesplease]

Ah yes, a coordinated attack. Zee British are coming, zee British are coming!

Don't get me wrong, oil production has to reach a maximum sooner or later if it already hasn't, but I can't help but get a kick from the bizarre ranting of both "sides". Just when I think the paranoid crackpot behavior might be subsiding, I find something new and entertaining!

[katkinkate]

Reading Peak Oil Deniers Is a Waste of Time

Yep, just as much as reading creationists, fundamental religionists, climate change denialists and political extremists. They all share the common characteristic of the inability to see and understand reality.

[kjmclark]

Actually, I can't include Yergin in that category anymore. I have to read a bit of what he's writing or saying to decide whether it's worth going on. He's sometimes worth reading more for 1) the insights you can get from the argument he's chosen or 2) learning from the expert way he plays the media. Also, last I heard, CERA was moving toward the peak oil camp, like the IEA, but as usual, from the "lack of investment" perspective.

Otherwise, I think of many cornucopians the same way I think of climate change deniers - really not worth the time. There's another distinction here though, since some of them, like our own Oilfinder and John Denver, are often at least bringing up new technology or discoveries that are worth reading about.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')Chris mentions the response over at TOD too, which I was proud to be invited to contribute a guest post for. Excellent article, some details I'd forgotten, like CERA calling in 2005 for 14 mb/d over what we have now online as of next year; oh Danny Boy! You're So Full of BS, the Peakists are Calling.

[dunewalker]

The worst presentations of the issue of peak oil I've heard have been on NPR.

[Southpaw]

Text and expletives deleted.

[jeromie]

Getting to the bottom of " peak oil" has taken me a very long time. Virtually all of the editorial content I have read since the hysteria began around five years ago peak oiler, peak denier has been of a genre I call Macro Floaters because the pieces simply give a macro view with apparently little understanding that macro is worthless unless built up from a thorough understanding of the micro elements that sum up to the macro at the end of the day. Conventional crude oil production from known proved reserves has peaked. That is all. Conventional crude oil production is oil produced by primary and secondary recovery methods.


One of the worst disservices to the entire problem of peaking conventional crude oil is to concentrate on global numbers which are worthless except as hyperbole and a methodology of confusion. All oil is produced locally and as such is totally under political control. Obviously, states that produce crude oil by any means including conventional, tertiary recovery of formerly conventional crude pools and all other unconventional types will satisfy domestic needs first and will increasingly divert production from raw export to finished product exports. These are all local considerations . The global aggregates from the local with the added proviso of consideration of major power foreign policy. Another new factor requiring a detailed micro analysis is the emerging ability to convert gas directly to distillate or for use as a substitute. Unconventional gas sources are massive and no matter the discounting from distrust of numbers that gas is there and will be for a very long time.

The entire issue of how much of fossil energies are there on a state by state basis requires understanding emerged methodologies for production even if discounted.

The question of who gets the fossil energy available for export use requires an understanding of future financial constructs and of course geopolitical considerations. The geopolitical settlement will decide who gets the export use fossil energy.

Anyway, I have now spent considerable time on what North American prospects are to produce their own energy needs from any source available. No state is going to volunteer to die for lack of energy and that goes exponentially for any state or allied states that possess energy to get by on and will deny that energy to others to maintain national life.

I leave out ecological concerns as a complication solely to get to the facts of energy possession and the ability to produce that fossil energy.

It is possible to sort the energy problem out.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')PR (forgot which show) interviewed Jerkin Yerkin yesterday mostly about the "Prize." No discussion, just a small derisive aside on peak.

[kjmclark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'T')he worst presentations of the issue of peak oil I've heard have been on NPR.

[hironegro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'T')he worst presentations of the issue of peak oil I've heard have been on NPR.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', ' ') Oil isn't going away, but cheap oil sure is.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'N')o, that's not just my opinion. Actually I do read what they have to say, but anyway. Courtesy of Profit from the Peak author Chris Nelder: Reading Peak Oil Deniers Is a Waste of Time

[BigTex]

Note the symmetry between the peak oil deniers and the people who are opposed to mark to market accounting.

They both think that breaking the thermometer will change the weather.

It's a strange thing to watch.

[Auntie_Cipation]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', ' ') Oil isn't going away, but cheap oil sure is.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')The low prices for natural gas in particular relate chiefly to the fact that North American NG is mostly an isolated market, and busines activity as measured by industrial production is down about 10%.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Auntie_Cipation', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
Cheap oil has been gone since 1973. Nearly two generations have grown up in the realm of "expensive" oil, and it sure hasn't seemed to cause <fill in your favorite UberDoomer fantasy>.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')The low prices for natural gas in particular relate chiefly to the fact that North American NG is mostly an isolated market, and busines activity as measured by industrial production is down about 10%.