[kublikhan]

First, a few definitions I pulled from the web:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')demand) driven inventory system in which materials, parts, sub-assemblies, and support items are delivered just when needed and neither sooner nor later. Its objective is to eliminate product inventories from the supply chain.

Just-In-Time inventory (JIT) is part of a production system whereby a firm vastly reduces inventory from its production processes so that utilization of production inputs and delivery of finished products are accomplished without incurring significant holding costs. While JIT inventory systems are quite attractive for this reason, they are a double-edged sword.

This does not mean to say JIT is implemented without an awareness that removing inventory exposes pre-existing manufacturing issues. This way of working encourages businesses to eliminate inventory that does not compensate for manufacturing process issues, and to constantly improve those processes to require less inventory. Secondly, allowing any stock habituates management to stock keeping. Management may be tempted to keep stock to hide production problems. These problems include backups at work centers, machine reliability, process variability, lack of flexibility of employees and equipment, and inadequate capacity.

In short, the just-in-time inventory system focus is having “the right material, at the right time, at the right place, and in the exact amount”, without the safety net of inventory. The JIT system has broad implications for implementers.

Just-in-time operation leaves suppliers and downstream consumers open to supply shocks and large supply or demand changes. by facilitating the interconnectedness between businesses, JIT inventory systems increases the risk that problems or failures on one end of the production chain might be felt on another end. However, these risks associated with JIT inventory systems may be ameliorated to a certain extent. If in-house production or a supplier buy-out is not a feasible option, firms still have other common-sense ways of preventing these risks.

Just as JIT has many strong points, there are weaknesses as well. "In just-in-time, everything is very interdependent. Everyone relies on everybody else" (Greenberg, 2002). Because of this strong interdependence with JIT, a weakness in the supply chain caused by a JIT weakness can be very costly to all linked in the chain. JIT processes can be risky to certain businesses and vulnerable to the supply chain in situations such as labor strikes, interrupted supply lines, market demand fluctuations, stock outs, lack of communication upstream and downstream in the supply chain and unforeseen production interruptions.

Labor strikes, stock outs, and port lockouts can quickly disrupt an entire supply chain while JIT processes are in place.

[the48thronin]

And after reading your offered ,material I am at a loss to why you think the failure of parts to be available is not a sign of a break down of JIT... that the breakdown mifgght be exaserbated by a surge in production does not make it no longer a breakdown, after reading all you offered, don't you agree?

[kublikhan]

No. Companies have to deal with part shortages all the time, regardless of their inventory management system. This parts shortage problem would exist in the farm equipment business regardless of what inventory management and manufacturing system your dealer friend implemented:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')arm machinery dealers are warning of a serious shortage, particularly in larger equipment like combine harvesters. Mr Hair says worldwide equipment demand and developing countries expanding into new farmlands all contribute to the problem.

[the48thronin]

and considering that my friend did pre order and is not short because he abandoned reliance on JIT?

Never mind, you disagree, I give up.It's a common over demand problem.. head back in sand mode assumed!

[kublikhan]

I see we've left the stage of intelligent debate and entered the stage of mocking with silly pictures. Ok, here you go:

[hardtootell-2]

Last thursday 5-6 tornadoes touched down in Ontario.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... le1259080/

This is quite unusual for that area. One person was killed and a lot of property was damaged.

A friend in Calgary (3400 km away) told me that 90% of the produce section of a MAJOR supermarket was bare as a result on the following Sunday (aug24). There were signs on the door saying that severe weather had hampered delivery from Toronto.

IMHO- this is a case of food insecurity caused by global warming
and we are in the early days of what we may live to see. It makes me shudder.

[POAlex]

It was quite the storm.

[Maddog78]

I just came back from Costco here in a Vancouver, B.C. suburb.
No sign of any shortages. Dry goods and produce filled to the roof on those shelves that Costco uses.

[Serial_Worrier]

Sorry but until I start seeing non-full shelves early in the week at my supermarket I will not believe that the JIT distribution system is weakening. Any store I go to the shelves are full early in the week.

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'I') just came back from Costco here in a Vancouver, B.C. suburb.
No sign of any shortages. Dry goods and produce filled to the roof on those shelves that Costco uses.

[FloridaGirl]

At the beginning of last year, the company I work for was losing a lot of money. A new president was hired and he cut losing contracts and sold off inventory. The sell off of inventory improved the company's cash position significantly.

Now we are having trouble getting electronic parts for production. Vendors are saying it will take something on the order of 16 weeks for delivery of the part. Over the past year, I've heard that for a variety of different parts. I heard one engineer say Just In Time works great until your suppliers do the same.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am still in close contact with my friend who manages one of the largest AG machinery independent dealerships. His comments and experiences are enlightening and offer some hope to keep life on the down slope as livable as possible as long as possible.

His parts sales are in what should be the slack "haying season" setting all time records because he took my advice and stocked up last year. in cases where he could, by analysis of computer sales records, he increased his storage by 150% of last years sales, ( he did intend to increase his customer base and has). He has also been active in helping in a growing movement where local groups of larger operators to band together with smaller operators and neighbors and develop communities on farm parts and supply stock points so that farmers can depend on each other, one stocking parts for one class of need, another for a different class of need and trade out with each other to prevent long time losses caused by needing parts brought in from distance etc. That plan has resulted in a group of farmers who are surviving the parts dislocations caused by the collapsing JIT parts trains from manufacturers.

His parts room is fielding calls from all across the USA and some parts of Canada for parts that the manufacturer is now placing on 3 to 6 month back order and his order volumes are setting records. In fact he and I have spent the last several of our 2 to three times a week hours long discussions on the topic of "Will you be able to handle the volume" once harvest starts and the crisis of parts shortage and time management of repair and parts personnel really becomes critical. I think he has a plan that should get him through this year and position him well if parts can be acquired at all. There may be no need to go out buying used from repo sales to strip this year...however, he is and does remember and has purchased, taken trades ( his new sales are also setting records for his manufacturer) and planned accordingly.

His comments about even greater parts shortages already ( with harvest still a month off) and his agreement with me that getting his customer base off of "repair when broke" to "preventative maintenance" seem to have made at least his customer base more ready for the continued coming apart of the global JIT system that we both see happening at his level. The secret was sharing the cost of inventory to make some inventory possible as we both knew when we first started talking about surviving the global economic dislocation.