[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'I') have been on the phone today with several people all of whom brought this subject up themselves NONE of whom read this discussion. One is the GM of a major agricultural machinery outlet in the upper Midwest who was explaining to me the difficulty he is having acquiring the necessary parts load he predicts he will need for the coming harvest season.

His remarks were all about which parts were outsourced by the manufacturer and have been unavailable since last NOVEMBER when they ordered the parts load for this years harvest. His stark assessment was that in several brands of agribusiness machines, there will be critical parts not available because the manufacturer themselves cannot get the parts from their suppliers who also were running JIT based inventory. We made several conference calls to the people we each knew investigating further and he is right.. several major suppliers who all were JIT suppliers are not going to be able to meet the needs of even the manufacturers much less the parts for repairs at major distributors.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'L')et's see superbig company a ( roadway) has a driver claiming they laid too many people off and he is working overtime... try google search YRC and union in talks over retirement. There are only so many assets you can sell and the rent from the new owner no matter how big your multi national trucking company is. YRC has used up that dodge.. There is only so much you can demand from workers, YRC has used up that dodge. The government could take control of a company the size of YRC, but then the great wides of the world would also be going belly up and taking control of great wide gives you nothing because they do not own any assets to use, they contract them from people who will be gone out of business by then.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', 'S')eems a little weird that toilet paper, of all things, should be so scarce on the shelves in that slideshow. It's not perishable, like meat, nor does it become out of date like magazines.

What's the product in slide 8, where the shelves are pretty thin? Wheat stuff, sugar stuff?

[the48thronin]

just as a matter of discussion, that single brand of toilet paper still in stock is made less than 200 miles away.. as were the paper diepaers.. those products transported from farther away were out at the dc or they would have been restocked already.

[Novus]

I continue to call BS on any of these so called signs of JIT breakdown. Went to the supermarket just today. Everything normal. Supermarkets won't close because they ran out of supply but because they ran out of customers.

[JJ]

I think one of the unintended consequences of JIT is the speed at which the store shelves will empty if/when there is a crisis. I work in a small (33,000) square foot grocery store. At any given time, there is a smattering of customers spread throughout the store (except at rush times, like after work). But what the customers don't realize is that we are feeding 10,000 people a day. Even the store director said JIT is a big mistake. We will be gutted in a few hours. When hurricane Rita and Ike came through Louisiana/South Texas, our shelves were empty is a few hours and the refugees were having fistfights in the bread isle over the last few loaves of bread, and the actual event was 700 miles to our east. I see that as a precursor to a real crisis. Have you ever been to a piggery? Humans are really no different.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'o')h and at almost the same time my daughter called me distraught from home and then sent me the following three shots from wally world there.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'I') think one of the unintended consequences of JIT is the speed at which the store shelves will empty if/when there is a crisis. I work in a small (33,000) square foot grocery store. At any given time, there is a smattering of customers spread throughout the store (except at rush times, like after work). But what the customers don't realize is that we are feeding 10,000 people a day. Even the store director said JIT is a big mistake. We will be gutted in a few hours. When hurricane Rita and Ike came through Louisiana/South Texas, our shelves were empty is a few hours and the refugees were having fistfights in the bread isle over the last few loaves of bread, and the actual event was 700 miles to our east. I see that as a precursor to a real crisis. Have you ever been to a piggery? Humans are really no different.

[ki11ercane]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', 'S')eems a little weird that toilet paper, of all things, should be so scarce on the shelves in that slideshow. It's not perishable, like meat, nor does it become out of date like magazines.

What's the product in slide 8, where the shelves are pretty thin? Wheat stuff, sugar stuff?

[ki11ercane]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'I') think one of the unintended consequences of JIT is the speed at which the store shelves will empty if/when there is a crisis. I work in a small (33,000) square foot grocery store. At any given time, there is a smattering of customers spread throughout the store (except at rush times, like after work). But what the customers don't realize is that we are feeding 10,000 people a day. Even the store director said JIT is a big mistake. We will be gutted in a few hours. When hurricane Rita and Ike came through Louisiana/South Texas, our shelves were empty is a few hours and the refugees were having fistfights in the bread isle over the last few loaves of bread, and the actual event was 700 miles to our east. I see that as a precursor to a real crisis. Have you ever been to a piggery? Humans are really no different.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;All that go-go 1990s where we were adding items in and adding items in, and people wanted more, more, more, more choice... just didn't pay off"

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'R')iiiiiight. That's why they kept on doing it right up until last year, because it "just didn't pay off". Funny how every market chain in the country just happened to figure that one out at the same time. Nice spin doctoring there...

You know, I love how some people in this thread think they know so much more about what's going on in the transport industry than someone who works in it. Keep it comin' Ronin. Some of us are grateful for the view beyond the lipstick...

[ki11ercane]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'I') think one of the unintended consequences of JIT is the speed at which the store shelves will empty if/when there is a crisis. I work in a small (33,000) square foot grocery store. At any given time, there is a smattering of customers spread throughout the store (except at rush times, like after work). But what the customers don't realize is that we are feeding 10,000 people a day. Even the store director said JIT is a big mistake. We will be gutted in a few hours. When hurricane Rita and Ike came through Louisiana/South Texas, our shelves were empty is a few hours and the refugees were having fistfights in the bread isle over the last few loaves of bread, and the actual event was 700 miles to our east. I see that as a precursor to a real crisis. Have you ever been to a piggery? Humans are really no different.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')You know, I love how some people in this thread think they know so much more about what's going on in the transport industry than someone who works in it. Keep it comin' Ronin. Some of us are grateful for the view beyond the lipstick...

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'D')o you really think a store trimming back on the 88 different types of shampoo they carry is a sign about a collapse currently underway in JIT distribution? I keep hearing about reduced demand, shrinking profit margins, building inventory. All of these things factor into the decision to scale back on the variety of items carried. So no, I don't think it is a coincidence that this is happening during a downturn. But a sign that JIT distribution is unraveling? No, I don't think so.

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'A')nyone remember how this thread started? Do you wonder if by cutting number of different items stocked, and adding "temporary" storage behind the store wallyworld is able to do better at keeping the shelves full?

today I took 17 photos and put them in a slide show, if it doesn't scroll try clicking on the picture.

[TWilliam]

Something else to note, especially with regard to Wal~mart, is that they are pretty much the masters of inventory tracking and control. It's how they came to dominate retail. You can pull any item off the shelf at any Wal~mart, and they can tell you how many of it sell not only in a year, not only in what month it sells the most, but what day and what hour of that day. They can also tell you the likely demographic and gender of the purchaser as well as what other items are likely to accompany it in the cart. Their system is entirely real-time. Before the last of any item even leaves the shelf the DC is already in the process of pulling replacement for that night's re-stock, based off of input from the cash register at the store. The only time Wal~mart gets 'caught short' is when there's an issue on the supply side...

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'I')'ve noticed the reduced inventories at my local Wal~mart, and I've engaged some of the employees in conversation about it. In no instance have they told me they've discontinued carrying anything I note missing. What they tell me repeatedly in so many words is that they're having 'supply issues', and at least one was aware enough of things to mention specifically the impact of the credit crisis on trans-oceanic container shipping, which is part of the JIT system.

[Serial_Worrier]

BTW, my local Trader Joes has supply issues with shredded cabbage. Some weeks they have it, some weeks they don't. Also they've discontinued some of my favorite salsas. They have added a lot of new products, a lot of which I don't care for.

[the48thronin]

because there is a break in our freight, my wife and I are sealing both the floors in our trailers. Mine was started today hers will start tomorrow in the same shop. So we decided to revisit the same wallyword store I shopped at yesterday, ( and we will probably do so again tomorrow and the next day.

Today I shot 51 pictures,



I noticed one of the bread trucks did not make his delivery today, so they spread the other bread across most of the empty shelves, The paper section I did not shoot yesterday I took care to shoot, there was about 1/2 of the stock they plan to have on hand.

meat was almost out, and the associates had just dressed the meat to make it look full. same with the produce where they were spreading the melons and the potatoes out to cover the missing peppers, yams, and lettuce. I asked the associates if they were waiting on a truck from the dc by claiming we were parked behind the store and didn't want our truck to interfere if he was due, and was told their daily truck had already been unloaded and all stocked already, nothing due in till 10 am tomorrow.

I mentioned the lack of meat and was told that was a problem since Friday as the DC was shorting orders because of short supply at the DC.

My daughter does not go to town every day, but will return to look into our local wallyworld Friday afternoon when the stock is usually maximized hoping to find the items she could not get yesterday. As I had never told her about the pics I had been taking, I was surprised to see her reaction yesterday. She is used to being able to hit the larder at home not the store.