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Alberta and oil royalties (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby Denny » Wed 31 Oct 2007, 22:12:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')First they should pay down all their government debt. Then put all the windfall in a
Sovereign Wealth Fund, just like Norway or Abu Dhabi does.


Hey, now. Being debt free is positively un-American. Don'cha know? Get it, spend it, then spend some more. :P
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 31 Oct 2007, 23:09:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')First they should pay down all their government debt. Then put all the windfall in a
Sovereign Wealth Fund, just like Norway or Abu Dhabi does.


Hey, now. Being debt free is positively un-American. Don'cha know? Get it, spend it, then spend some more. :P

Yeah, but you're Canadians. ;)
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby Denny » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 00:44:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')First they should pay down all their government debt. Then put all the windfall in a
Sovereign Wealth Fund, just like Norway or Abu Dhabi does.


Hey, now. Being debt free is positively un-American. Don'cha know? Get it, spend it, then spend some more. :P

Yeah, but you're Canadians. ;)


Well, Albertans are really somewhere in between.

I guess deep down we are all cut from the same cloth, similar history, customs and economy. Maybe we are the world's closest nationalities, with the exception of Germans and Austrians. I think its only the French part of Canada that makes us somewhat distinctive. If you were dropped into downtown Calgary you'd have a hard time knowing you were not in Denver, exept for the red and white flags.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby MOCKBA » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 02:43:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I')f you were dropped into downtown Calgary you'd have a hard time knowing you were not in Denver, exept for the red and white flags.


Untill you go to a bank or pay those taxes or make the first purchase and pay those taxes too or interact with any business. Not even close.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 04:34:17

Well, actually as clueless as I appear to be, Alberta does have its own sovereign wealth management fund, but it is called simply Alberta Investment Management, which is not nearly as sexy! ; - )

To be brutally honest I have to steal an argument from another poster about Norway's sovereign wealth fund, but I cannot even give kudos without going back and finding it. So whoever it was, thank you for the idea.

His argument was simply, okay, so you save for a rainy day, but what happens when you have run out of oil & gas and due to peak oil whatever you have invested in goes down in value as well? A simple, but brilliant question!

The answer is that you are no better off than had you simply spent the money in the first place.

So yes, Alberta certainly should pay down debt, but they have been anyway. Even before the oil & gas boom they were tightening their belt and cutting back on public services. That makes the boom even more painful as they are caught out short on those public services. But as rockdock said, who was predicting $90 per barrel oil (actually $95 today) back in the dark days of 1998? Less than 10-years ago!

Then your best return on investment is not some cheesey investment fund, so you can lend to other dead beats that cannot manage their finances properly, like the Heritage Trust Fund consistantly did, but to improve your own infrastructure. Like for example building your own refineries instead of exporting crude. And like any public company if you cannot find a good use for those funds then return it to shareholders in the form of lower taxes. The goal of government should be to run balanced budgets. Surpluses are no more desirable than deficits. Surpluses just invite governments with all their wisdom to spend money needlessly.

Cut the individual highest marginal tax burden from 49% to 24.5% and then watch Alberta grow. That will do more for the economy than $95 oil! ; - )
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 04:52:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MOCKBA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I')f you were dropped into downtown Calgary you'd have a hard time knowing you were not in Denver, exept for the red and white flags.


Untill you go to a bank or pay those taxes or make the first purchase and pay those taxes too or interact with any business. Not even close.


Thanks for those links MOCKBA. Very depressing. As smug as Canucks are about Americans it seems we are equally guilty of living beyond our means. And being clueless about our retirement.

My family are no exception. My step-brother is earning so much dosh these days in the oil patch as a tool push, but he spends it all on toys as quick as he earns it. Never salts away one penny.

The only way my brother in law paid off his mortgage was to have a double heart attack and to collect the insurance. Now that mortgage money also goes into another car loan. What is wrong with these people?
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 15:33:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut those costs are still tax deductible. Even if the royalty schemes are changed, costs are costs, and therefore they are deducted off the top of revenues before taxes are paid on profits. Sorry that is how it works.

And obviously $90 per barrel generates different levels of royalties and taxation than $30 per barrel. Not 3X, but more. The Alberta government is talking about raising royalties 20%, not 300%, so they are hardly clawing back all the price increase. But companies can and will still be elligible to write off 100% of their expenses and, of course, if there are any losses carry them forward.


good in theory but I suggest you run the numbers. I've seen them, in fact I saw our models hot off the presses the day after. The only reason deep gas which accounts for about 75% of Albertas gas production works at all is because of the deep gas royalty holiday. Even with that many of the projects that were economic are no longer so. Gas is extremely hard to find, costs go up and certain projects become uneconomic, royalties go up in lock-step and even more projects become uneconomic. The increased royalties will hence put a halt on gas exploration in the province....this equates to thousands of jobs in the service sector and being a finacially savy person you will immediately realize the potential impact on provincial GNP as a result. The big losers here could easily be the Alberta populace as operating costs in some of the gas wells will no longer be less than net cash flow after tax and royalty...as a consequence they will be shut-in and if they are low pressured reservoired gas forget ever turning them back on at a later date.

I also saw the calculations and NAV valuations that Wood Gundy put out the morning after specifically for heavy oil producers...anywhere form 5% to 14% drop in NAV across the board for the small to intermediate players. The market didn't drop drastically the day after simply because a worse scenario had already been priced in by the market over the preceeding weeks. The shareholders of these companies are the main losers...again another impact on GNP.

I think it is a well recognized historical truth that business friendly taxation creates more tax wealth for governments than when draconian tax measures are implemented. As one of the CEO's of a major Canadian oil company said "oil and gas that is left in the ground is no good to anyone.....you don't collect tax from it and it doesn't increase anyone's wealth".

Perhaps you are too young to remember the NEB and how devastating it was for Alberta. The numbers I've seen suggest we will see similar affects, perhaps not immediately but certainly by 4th quarter 08.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 19:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')
I think it is a well recognized historical truth that business friendly taxation creates more tax wealth for governments than when draconian tax measures are implemented. As one of the CEO's of a major Canadian oil company said "oil and gas that is left in the ground is no good to anyone.....you don't collect tax from it and it doesn't increase anyone's wealth".

Perhaps you are too young to remember the NEB and how devastating it was for Alberta. The numbers I've seen suggest we will see similar affects, perhaps not immediately but certainly by 4th quarter 08.


The only well recognized historical truth is that history never repeats, and in the case of Alberta's response to windfall profits for oil companies, operating within it's borders, it doesn't even rhyme. The NEP was drawn up and implemented just prior to world crash in oil prices. Alberta would have suffered anyway.

If you want to quote sources to support whether the Alta govt is doing the right thing, the CEO of an oil company isn't the most impartial.

Alberta realizes this may be their last big kick at the can, too. Oil is unlikely to be the major player it is now, 10 years down the road. So good for them---and Viva Chavez.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 23:15:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you want to quote sources to support whether the Alta govt is doing the right thing, the CEO of an oil company isn't the most impartial.


Well anyone of them certainly knows what the fiscal realities for oil and gas investment are to a greater extent than any of the twits who were part of the panel only 1 of which has ever actually worked in the patch. You seem to miss the point that I am on the inside on this....I have seen the numbers we run, I have colleagues in senior positions in many of the Alberta oil companies that behind closed doors reiterate exactly what has been said in the papers. After the painful experiences of the eighties where we had to downsize noone wants to have to do it again, ever. I haven't heard that term expressed by senior exec for a long long time....until just recently.

And again, I reitierate you can't concentrate on the current price of oil. Yes oil went down after the NEP....but if it had never been instituted oil and gas could still have been extracted with healthy economics. Finding and development costs back then were in the order of $3 -$4 /bbl......know they are almost invariably over $30/bbl in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.
It is, in fact, the exact same thing from the perspective of oil companies. The only thing that might save some of them is the lower of corporate taxes by the federal government. I haven't seen an analysis of that affect on our bottom line yet but expect it to mean different things to different sized companies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only well recognized historical truth is that history never repeats

this could be the stupidest comment I have ever seen on this forum. History has always repeated itself, and especially so in the oil patch.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby Blacksmith » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 00:09:06

Run all the numbers you want, the current royality program is a comprimise which the government has been critized for. Some companies will not be able to raise money and some will fold or be sold off. That business. Politician will say they gave too much and did not take enough or did not see the big picture. That's politics. And when the dust settles it will be business as usual because we need the oil and gas.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 00:38:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')After the painful experiences of the eighties where we had to downsize noone wants to have to do it again, ever. I haven't heard that term expressed by senior exec for a long long time....until just recently.
.


So you would like Albertans, provincially, and Canadians, federally, to subsidize oil corporations, in the event that oil prices crash, as they did in the eighties?

That sounds like a sweet deal. You honestly think that we should be in a position to gaurantee corporations continuing economic success?
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 05:42:08

rockdoc123 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps you are too young to remember the NEB and how devastating it was for Alberta. The numbers I've seen suggest we will see similar affects, perhaps not immediately but certainly by 4th quarter 08.


The pace of economic development in the Province of Alberta as you know has been frantic and was in all likelyhood unsustainable. Not only that, but many workers in the oil industry are busy spending their paycheques as quick as they can. Nothing but car, truck and RV dealerships from Calgary to Edmonton one after another. There is in short no thought about the future. This is the same pattern of boom and bust as we saw in the 1970s. Anything that is unsustainable by definition must end.

In theory zero taxes would maximize employment and corporate profits. But how realistic is that when your public are demanding schools, roads, hospitals, police, healthcare and pensions? There has to be a fair tax burden, and at 10% Alberta corporate tax is already very low compared to almost anywhere else in the world. There is also no Provincial sales tax. You mentioned Norway. 28% corporate tax and VAT of 23%. The North Sea? The UK has 30% corporate tax and 17.5% VAT versus the Canadian GST of 6%.

If oil and gas companies cannot make money in Alberta then they have a poor business model and deserve to be bought out by competitors. As a taxpayer it is not in my interest to give corporations a free ride. And personal taxes in Canada that rise to 49% at the top marginal tax rate are quite high thank you very much. Oil and gas as well as our coal and forestry industries have to be managed with all stakeholders in mind and not just shareholders. Those resources do not belong to the oil and gas companies. They are Crown assets. They belong to Albertans and Canadians in general.

If Royalties are set too high it will discourage new investment and as you said new job creation. But that does not mean we have to give our finite resources away for free or operate in such a manner that our environment is permanently destroyed in the process of creating new jobs for foreigners and those from outside the Province as the case may be as we are already at full employment and are short on skilled workers in Alberta to meet existing demand. GNP is not everything.

The NEP was nothing like increasing royalties from a very low level by 20%. The NEP forced Alberta to sell oil at below market prices as a means of income transfer to the rest of Canada. Royalties are based on volumes. And of course corporate taxes are based on profitability. No profits, no taxes.

Of course, I know how cyclical oil & gas are, and I am old enough to remember the fallout from the NEP and the subsequent worldwide slump in not only oil & gas prices, but all commodities on which the Alberta economy depends. Those were salad days for Albertans. Not just oilfield workers but also farmers. Economic mismanagement and poor government always have a habit of destroying value and creating unemployment and hardship. Which is why you need sound economic policies and sustainable business models in place while prices are high and times are good. NAV is also not everything!

As for shut-in wells, the last time oil & gas prices were so low I was busy buying Canadian oil & gas funds because my friends in the patch assured me that the costs were already sunk in the ground and they could turn on the taps as soon as the price rose. Since 1998 those funds have performed very well. But I do not work in an oil company, at least not directly, so if you will share the data and analysis with us perhaps we will be better informed as well. Thanks.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 11:30:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n theory zero taxes would maximize employment and corporate profits. But how realistic is that when your public are demanding schools, roads, hospitals, police, healthcare and pensions? There has to be a fair tax burden, and at 10% Alberta corporate tax is already very low compared to almost anywhere else in the world. There is also no Provincial sales tax. You mentioned Norway. 28% corporate tax and VAT of 23%. The North Sea? The UK has 30% corporate tax and 17.5% VAT versus the Canadian GST of 6%.


It's realistic if the 10 billion that the province takes in annually in royalities is actually spent on such infrastructure. It has not been. I have a hard time seeing how this extra royalty will somehow change that situation.
The UK and Norway systems for oil and gas investment are still much better than Canada regardless of those taxes for various reasons including the ability to immediately write off dry hole costs. In fact the UK stands as the best oil and gas fiscal system in the world (for countries that have lots of oil and gas) and Norway is still much, much better than Alberta's new scheme. The UK and Alberta are at about the same level of maturity from an exploration and production status but Norway still has considerable opportunities.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f oil and gas companies cannot make money in Alberta then they have a poor business model and deserve to be bought out by competitors. As a taxpayer it is not in my interest to give corporations a free ride. And personal taxes in Canada that rise to 49% at the top marginal tax rate are quite high thank you very much. Oil and gas as well as our coal and forestry industries have to be managed with all stakeholders in mind and not just shareholders. Those resources do not belong to the oil and gas companies. They are Crown assets. They belong to Albertans and Canadians in general.


I've asked you to run the numbers....you haven't. But somehow you are convinced that oil companies must be able to make money because you see high oil prices and naturally assume the oil companies must be raping the public. It is your Alberta government and the Canadian government which have been giving you the right proper rogering not the oil companies. Where have all those taxes gone? Perhaps to build more government? What makes you think additional royalties won't go to the same thing?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for shut-in wells, the last time oil & gas prices were so low I was busy buying Canadian oil & gas funds because my friends in the patch assured me that the costs were already sunk in the ground and they could turn on the taps as soon as the price rose. Since 1998 those funds have performed very well. But I do not work in an oil company, at least not directly, so if you will share the data and analysis with us perhaps we will be better informed as well. Thanks.


Back then much of the gas and oil that had been shut-in still had significant natural pressure. The low output gas wells that will be shutin (CNQ president said just that this morning) will be impossible to get flowing again without some sort of technology leap. I am not talking about capital costs, I'm talking about operating costs. Yes once you have something producing outside of workovers and facility upgrades your capital is largely sunk. But these wells cost money to keep running, which is referred to as operating costs. The economic life of a well is determined by the point at which netbacks from produced gas/oil sales drops below the cost of operating the well. With increased royalites the netback drops and hence the economic life is shortened.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o you would like Albertans, provincially, and Canadians, federally, to subsidize oil corporations, in the event that oil prices crash, as they did in the eighties?

That sounds like a sweet deal. You honestly think that we should be in a position to gaurantee corporations continuing economic success?


Oil and gas companies are not subsidized...not sure where you got that idea. They pay 100% of the investment to take out a portion of sales gas/oil minus a royalty that is paid to the government. They can continue to do that until such time as their discounted profit to investment drops below a level where it makes more sense to put their money elsewhere. The government does not invest any money in oil and gas development....they take no risk this being thrown off to the oil companies. The government has to keep royalties at such a level that oil companies will continue to invest, otherwise the oil/gas stays in the ground. If that happens they make no royalties and there is massive unemployment.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 13:20:44

RocDoc, I use the term subsidize loosely, as in, any govt that short changes itself, at the behest of business. I think the important thing to remember here is, Canada's citizens are doing the oil companies a favour by letting them drill or mine tar sands, not the other way around. Though we should try to refrain from developing an adversary relationship with oil corporations, our citizens should be the cop on the beat to make sure that a handshake between corporation and govt. doesn't become a mutual cuddle, that excludes the kids, and then devolve into the corporate rape of an entire province.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby Starvid » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 13:36:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')ell, actually as clueless as I appear to be, Alberta does have its own sovereign wealth management fund, but it is called simply Alberta Investment Management, which is not nearly as sexy! ; - )

To be brutally honest I have to steal an argument from another poster about Norway's sovereign wealth fund, but I cannot even give kudos without going back and finding it. So whoever it was, thank you for the idea.

His argument was simply, okay, so you save for a rainy day, but what happens when you have run out of oil & gas and due to peak oil whatever you have invested in goes down in value as well? A simple, but brilliant question!

The answer is that you are no better off than had you simply spent the money in the first place.

Of course, if your managers are clueless, you aren't in a good spot. But if the fund invest mainly in, say, oil fields, railroads, nuclear power plants and so on, it'll be a real good thing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hen your best return on investment is not some cheesey investment fund, so you can lend to other dead beats that cannot manage their finances properly, like the Heritage Trust Fund consistantly did, but to improve your own infrastructure. Like for example building your own refineries instead of exporting crude. And like any public company if you cannot find a good use for those funds then return it to shareholders in the form of lower taxes. The goal of government should be to run balanced budgets. Surpluses are no more desirable than deficits. Surpluses just invite governments with all their wisdom to spend money needlessly.

Cut the individual highest marginal tax burden from 49% to 24.5% and then watch Alberta grow. That will do more for the economy than $95 oil! ; - )

Investing in domestic infrastructure is another great thing to do. A nuclear power plant will last you 60 years, a good bridge 100-200 years. These are things that will stick around, providing value for our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren.

What you absolutley shouldn't do is lower taxes or increase social spending. Then the oil windfall will only be useful for the current generation, leaving nothing for future generations, and on top of that government will start relying on this revenue stream (Alaska is the worst example here).

The oil belongs to all Albertans, including those who haven't been born yet.
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 15:46:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')think the important thing to remember here is, Canada's citizens are doing the oil companies a favour by letting them drill or mine tar sands, not the other way around. Though we should try to refrain from developing an adversary relationship with oil corporations, our citizens should be the cop on the beat to make sure that a handshake between corporation and govt. doesn't become a mutual cuddle, that excludes the kids, and then devolve into the corporate rape of an entire province
.

Well actually noone is doing anyone any favors here. It is a business deal in which both parties should be benefiting. If you make the deal too tough the oil companies will go elsewhere. Currently for high productivity gas wells the royalty even with the deep incentive is higher than anywhere in North America. Since the Alberta government cannot afford the huge capital investment required to extract hydrocarbons on their own they are forced to make business arrangements. Yes they have an onous to make sure that they are doing the right thing....which has exactly been my point here. A report last week from Tristone Capital suggests that the increased royalty will actually result in $1.5 billion less in annual revenues due to decreased land sale and exploration activities in Alberta. First Energy came out late last week with a view that as many as 16,000 jobs could be lost due to decreased activity over the next two - three years due to increased royalities. Due to bad input, a lack of understanding of actual costs and some other poor assumptions that the panel made due largely to their lack of experience in the industry they have made a decision that is not in the best interests of the people of Alberta.
First Energy came out with a study that is backed up by Herolds that break even gas prices for average Alberta wells is now $7/Mcf.
Henry Hub was at $6.97 this morning.....does this seem like a good time to be raising royalties to you?
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Re: royalties and Alberta

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 05 Nov 2007, 10:49:39

rockdoc123 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou seem to miss the point that I am on the inside on this....I have seen the numbers we run, I have colleagues in senior positions in many of the Alberta oil companies that behind closed doors reiterate exactly what has been said in the papers.


And then….

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve asked you to run the numbers....you haven't. But somehow you are convinced that oil companies must be able to make money because you see high oil prices and naturally assume the oil companies must be raping the public.


Actually, I have asked you to run the numbers and then share your results with us, so we can all make up our minds based on objective analysis. Instead you have presented me with a strawman argument whereby I stated that oil companies were cheating by allocating costs under their CAPEX that is taxed at only 1% until capital costs are repaid by padding their numbers with operating and admin expenses. You equate that with me saying that I assume that oil companies can make money due to high prices and that I assume that that oil companies are raping the public.

This is not true. I am just cynical about their public pronouncements. So if you are inside on this and have seen the numbers as well as spoke to senior managers about this behind closed doors then please share your numbers and analysis with us. Thanks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Oil patch giant Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. has responded to Alberta's new royalty regime with a kick and a hug.
The company created and controlled by billionaire Murray Edwards is radically cutting plans for natural gas drilling, saying it will move production to British Columbia, West Africa and the North Sea. But it will stay the course for most of its oil sands investment plans, which amount to more than $20-billion and are the future of the company.


Source: Changed royalty scheme showing effect
So it would appear that despite higher royalties, from 1% to 1.2% as far as I can see, that Mr. Edwards will invest some $20-billion in Alberta heavy oil in any case? Interestingly, or tellingly, this was the only such article I stumbled across with a quick search. There may of course be others.

Natural gas drilling? Come on, you’re not the only one with friends. I know that natural gas drilling was a tiny fraction of the year previous last winter. No one was drilling for natural gas. And the crews were idle for much of the winter unless they found other work locally on other projects. So that was last winter. BEFORE the planned change to the royalties.
rockdoc123 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')First Energy came out with a study that is backed up by Herolds that break even gas prices for average Alberta wells is now $7/Mcf.
Henry Hub was at $6.97 this morning.....does this seem like a good time to be raising royalties to you?


I find this very interesting as it would seem that Henry Hub has been trading at an average price of $6.55 (source: Bloomberg) since 2002, and as ex-Alberta the FOB price must be lower, that means that nat gas producers have not made any money since then? But that is not a fair comment because obviously the C$ dollar has appreciated since then so local costs have increased. But let’s see a breakdown of those numbers in any case. They sound high compared to the actual spot market. Thanks.
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B.C. sticks another knife into Alberta's O&G royalty program

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 06 Aug 2009, 16:34:09

I bet this chap's good old Ed's ass.
Alberta cut some slack on royalty's a month or so ago and B.C. comes right back at him. :lol:

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/news/businessnews/article.aspx?cp-documentid=21065864


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B').C. offers oil and gas stimulus package to spur investment
THE CANADIAN PRESS
August 06, 2009
VICTORIA, B.C. - The B.C. government is offering a stimulus package to the oil and gas industry to spur investment and boost economic growth.
Energy Minister Blair Lekstrom says the package will generate $2.50 in net revenues within three years for every $1 of royalty credit.
Fifty million dollars will be put into the existing Infrastructure Royalty Credit Program this fall to stimulate investment in roads and pipelines.

snip.........

also something about a windmill.
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