[Carmiac]

Oh, the source for my graph is http://powerlab.fsb.hr/OsnoveEnergetike/1999/bpstat/pages/oilcon4.htm

[Mower]

As a Canadian I think w can all agree that both Canada and the US consume far too much oil and other resources to support our bloated self-serving lifestyles. In some ways, we reap what we sew.

[Pops]

Mower, I think blanket assumptions with no evidence are just as worthless, whether the opinion is everything is going to be peachy or we’re all going to die. Carmiac presents some numbers and then makes an argument people can either refute or accept. I didn’t say oil prices will triple in one day; I simply asked for evidence to back the opinion it wouldn’t.
----

As to carmiac’s point, my thought is that the term “elasticity” can’t easily be applied to oil like it is to bubble gum. The drop in consumption illustrated (I love graphs BTW) was evidence of a nasty recession. Certainly conservation happened, after all houses were barely insulated in those days, but the economy slowed dramatically – and those spikes were temporary.

Oil prices have double in four years and demand is going up faster than ever.

From
HOW WILL CURRENCIES BE AFFECTED BY RISING OIL PRICES Friday, May 21, 2004 15:36 GMT
Interim Report
by Forex Capital Markets LLC http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106 ... enu=market

Snip:
“Looking back from the early 70’s forward, there are observable and dramatic changes in GDP growth in relation to changes in the world oil price. The price shocks of 73-74, the late 1970s/early 1980s, and early 1990's were all followed by dramatic recessions, which have then been followed by a rebound in economic growth.

… There have been three global recessions in the past 30 years, and all of them were pre-dated by a sharp rise in oil prices.

…If oil prices stay at their current level of more than $35 a barrel, more than $10 a barrel above their level of three years ago, world GDP would be at least half of 1% lower -- equivalent to about $255 billion -- in the year following a $10 oil-price increase.”
---------

IOW, one man’s elasticity is another’s recession.

[Aaron]

What's missing from this is consumption increases from emerging economies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina's import of fuel oil rose 69% in the first four months of this year as against 44% last year.

[azreal60]

I would agree that no one said we don t have slack in how much oil supply we have. The problem is getting to the point where we can use that slack would litereally break the economy of the modern world. Peak oil is not about running out. It is about oil supplys not being able to keep up with demand because the amount we extract simply will not physically be able to get higher.

So what happens then? I think there will be a period where conservation gives us a chance to make a try at something different, a try at sustainable existance. The question is will we jump at that chance, if we do not, the abyss is waiting for us on the next step. So get ready for a running jump, and learn how to jump farther i would say would be the next steps. :D

[Canuck]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')OW, one man’s elasticity is another’s recession.

[Yamaha_R6]

money can get us more energy..... money can give people motivation to make alternative energy sources. If i say i have 50,000 dollars for someone to make my house run on wind power, people are going to show up ready to to business.

Doesn't matter if oil is expensive at that point or not, people looking for money will assemble them by hand if need be. If we can no longer produce the parts we have about a 20 million Saves sitten around with their 4 thousand pounds of metal. Ever seen junkward wars??? I am sure a book could be written (by Matt Savinar).. "How to take your Ford Explore and turn into a wind mill... for dummies"! It seems they have a home depot in every county now... As far as i know they let you use their tools for free or little expense.

The point is the wind mill makes more energy then it takes to make one... a lot more over a period of time. Right now Bill Gates could make 5 MILLION windmills... assuming each one costs 10,000 and that he has 50 billion. Money buys peoples work... and human work can be turned into a product that will capture more energy then was used to create it.. so there.

[Yamaha_R6]

Damn spell checker... It sayes saves..... it should be SUV's.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yamaha_R6', 'm')oney can get us more energy..... money can give people motivation to make alternative energy sources. If i say i have 50,000 dollars for someone to make my house run on wind power, people are going to show up ready to to business.

Doesn't matter if oil is expensive at that point or not, people looking for money will assemble them by hand if need be. If we can no longer produce the parts we have about a 20 million Saves sitten around with their 4 thousand pounds of metal. Ever seen junkward wars??? I am sure a book could be written (by Matt Savinar).. "How to take your Ford Explore and turn into a wind mill... for dummies"! It seems they have a home depot in every county now... As far as i know they let you use their tools for free or little expense.

The point is the wind mill makes more energy then it takes to make one... a lot more over a period of time. Right now Bill Gates could make 5 MILLION windmills... assuming each one costs 10,000 and that he has 50 billion. Money buys peoples work... and human work can be turned into a product that will capture more energy then was used to create it.. so there.

[azreal60]

Money is not energy. Your analogy is false for the following reasons.

1. No matter how much money you throw out there, there is not the infrastructure currently built to grow solar or wind at a much faster pace than has been posted in here before. The amount they would have at max capacity would not even put a dent into the amount we would need. And it would do nothing to blunt the transportation problem.

2. The reason modern windmills are getting more and more efficient is they are more and more complex and technologically advanced. You can not turn a ford explorer into a windmill. That is a very false analogy considering they are made of totally different materials. The factory capability of modern windmills is limited by how many factorys we have. You could build more with money, but that would take time. And time is something money can not buy.

3. Right now solar and wind still require oil to make the components and transport them into place. While this is not a huge issue yet, it will be when peak oil hits. You have to re evaluate how you look at things. You are still thinking in terms of the society we have now. That society will not exist after peak oil. Get used to thinking in terms of what we can accomplish with less and less oil each year. That is your challenge yamaha. That is the challenge for all of us. ( it overwhelms me sometimes, I will admit.)

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yamaha_R6', 'm')oney can get us more energy..... money can give people motivation to make alternative energy sources. If i say i have 50,000 dollars for someone to make my house run on wind power, people are going to show up ready to to business.

Doesn't matter if oil is expensive at that point or not, people looking for money will assemble them by hand if need be. If we can no longer produce the parts we have about a 20 million Saves sitten around with their 4 thousand pounds of metal. Ever seen junkward wars??? I am sure a book could be written (by Matt Savinar).. "How to take your Ford Explore and turn into a wind mill... for dummies"! It seems they have a home depot in every county now... As far as i know they let you use their tools for free or little expense.

The point is the wind mill makes more energy then it takes to make one... a lot more over a period of time. Right now Bill Gates could make 5 MILLION windmills... assuming each one costs 10,000 and that he has 50 billion. Money buys peoples work... and human work can be turned into a product that will capture more energy then was used to create it.. so there.

[Aaron]

http://peakoil.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=756&mode=thread&order=0&thold=-1

[Yamaha_R6]

Once again.... you are assuming we wont have the time, as it is one of the things money can't buy. This goes back to my very first point... the point that there is going to be a LOT of time after peak in which society will change and adjust... not collapse.

Imagine a solar panel factory being powered to make more solar panels by solar panels that they have already been made. You just make more and more and more until you run out of money... or until you have all the energy you want.

Where do we get the money you ask... well if we stopped buying all this fancy stuff for the millitary... which costs us what.. 50 billion... 500 billion a year?

Lets say each solar powered solar panel plant cost 500 million dollars. If we invested 500 billion dollars, that would make 1000 factories.

Lets say each factory can make 150 panels a day. Thats about one every 5 min during a 12 hour day. This seems reasonable since factories in detroit can make a car every 30 seconds. 150 panels a day times 365 days = 54,750 a year. Each panel lasts lets say 25 years. So times 25 = 1,368,750. This means that one plant can supply 1,368,750 people with one solar panel for there whole life.

Lets put all of these solar panels in death valley... this way we get the most energy, and they are much easier to clean and maintain cause they are all together in place.

Now these are large panels we are making... but lets assume each household, even when conserving, uses the power of 2 panels just inside their homes alone. 1,368,750 / 2 = 684,375. So the population of the U.S =300,000,000 / 684,375 = 439 factories we will need.

What to do with the other 561 solar powered solar panel factories??? Use the MILLIONS of panels they are making to run those Maglift trains the Germans and Japanese are using. Connect all large cities with these trains. THIS WILL relace planes, as it is very fast and more economical as it is. Suburbs where population density is to low for it to be economical to run these trains to can use electric trolly like trains that will be run automatically on certain routes. Walk down 2 blocks fron your house to the small trolly. Trolly comes every 15 min. Take it to the major mall or to the Maglift train to go downtown.

This doesnt even account for the possibility of electric cars. The US government and peoples spends TRILLIONS on the millitary, road maintance, cars, and energy. With this amount of money we could make enough solar panels in a few years to power hundreds of millions of electric cars and or electric trains.

This doesnt account for the fact we will still have billions of barrels of oil per year to consume, or the many many other energy sources we have, wind, nuclear, tar sands, hydro, thermal.

Down to my point. We have unlimited energy from the sun. It takes money to make the tools to capture it. If any of us here had any idea of HOW MUCH MONEY the U.S. spends on stupid non-sustainable projects among other things. If we need trillions of dollars and 10 years to make this new world, we could do it. It is cheaper in the long run to just make public transit to and from all major cities and suburbs.
People WOULD use it. Think of the coster going from Oceanside to downtown. If it could go 120MPH and get to downtown in 20 min during rush hour, everyone would want to use it.
The united states is years behind technology wise in transportation and energy, but we will catch up.

I estimate we will have a good 15 years past peak to implement these things.

Before all of you say.. this is fantasy, its not possible we cant do this, think how far we as a country went from the years 1880 to 1920. It will be the same for the years 2008-2025.

[Yamaha_R6]

no you idiots... money doesnt create energy in that sense... you cant just yell out i want energy... and no money cant make oil just magically appear... i never said it could. Energy can buy peoples hard work though. And hard work will get you a sustainable energy source, like wind or solar power....

Why the hell would we want energy in the form of oil anyway. Electricity can be transported anywhere at near the speed of light, it can be used to make hydrogen, it powers the internet Tv and lights, it powers trains and trollys, its cheaper then oil, you can even use electricity to make oil if thats what you really want... Electricity is the bomb. And we have infiniti electricity from the sun... just have to go collect it... (goes to get TV plug and puts it up to the sun waiting for the tv to turn on).... well... have to get the solar panels first... better get some $$$$ to buy them.

[Yamaha_R6]

One more thing about solar panels you peeps should no about... People on this site keep telling us the limitations of solar panels. How are we going to power our electric trains at night???? Well lets see... ever heard the phrase, "The sun never sets on the british empire". You put the other panels in europe, then run a big cable under the ocean from England to iceland, and then to Greenland and then to Canada.

"This guys on crack, You cant lay a power line under the Atlantic ocean. It cant be done". Not true.. in fact we were doing something very similar to this during the cold war. We wanted to spy on the soviet union, so we were laying a cable under the ocean from iceland to a listening device that was tapped onto a russian comunications line.

[MattSavinar]

What is really upsetting me about this thread is:

1. Yamaha has apparently done some reading and still thinks this is all viable.

2. 99.5 percent of the people "out there" think exactly the way he does.

Yamaha: take this as either constructive criticism or as a flame: you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

You may think I'm super pessimistic. Fine. But I reckon that even the more "optimistic" people on this board would agree: your posts show a complete lack of understanding of the situation.

Really, you don't even grasp the super basic fundamental concepts and issues right now.

Do yourself and all of us a favor and go borrow or buy a copy of "The Party's Over."

Do I understand everything? Far from it. But right now, your posts are so ridiculously uninformed it shocks the conscious.

Really, unless you want to look totally uninformed, go get a copy of "The Party's Over."

I may be the town crier, but right now you are the village idiot.

Matt

[Yamaha_R6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'W')hat is really upsetting me about this thread is:

1. Yamaha has apparently done some reading and still thinks this is all viable.

2. 99.5 percent of the people "out there" think exactly the way he does.

Yamaha: take this as either constructive criticism or as a flame: you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

You may think I'm super pessimistic. Fine. But I reckon that even the more "optimistic" people on this board would agree: your posts show a complete lack of understanding of the situation.

Really, you don't even grasp the super basic fundamental concepts and issues right now.

Do yourself and all of us a favor and go borrow or buy a copy of "The Party's Over."

Do I understand everything? Far from it. But right now, your posts are so ridiculously uninformed it shocks the conscious.

Really, unless you want to look totally uninformed, go get a copy of "The Party's Over."

I may be the town crier, but right now you are the village idiot.

Matt

[Pops]

I got this far:

“the point that there is going to be a LOT of time after peak in which society will change and adjust”



Q, Why?
A, Donneknow, there just will.



OK. Yam. I’m convinced.

[azreal60]

Guys, take it down a notch. Calling someone an idiot .. after this point.. will get you moderated.

Yam, take into account they actually are restraining themselves. I have seen them when someone makes statements like this before, and if that is the worst matt says, your actually doing pretty well.

Look, seriously, how many times have you seen this before? From now on, we need to deal with the uninformed better. Also, do realize that just because it is obvious that yam is uninformed does not make him stupid. There are some very smart uninformed people out there. So, drop the anger with it, and realize that he simply has not passed into the acceptance phase yet.

Weither he ever accepts that he might have more info to get before he is qualified to make such sweeping statements, we have to accept the fact that matt is right 99 percent of humanity is just like him, and if we can t learn better ways of dealing with such people than calling them the village idiot, what chances do we have of accomplishing anything after peak oil?

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', 'G')uys, take it down a notch. Calling someone an idiot .. after this point.. will get you moderated.

Yam, take into account they actually are restraining themselves. I have seen them when someone makes statements like this before, and if that is the worst matt says, your actually doing pretty well.

Look, seriously, how many times have you seen this before? From now on, we need to deal with the uninformed better. Also, do realize that just because it is obvious that yam is uninformed does not make him stupid. There are some very smart uninformed people out there. So, drop the anger with it, and realize that he simply has not passed into the acceptance phase yet.

Weither he ever accepts that he might have more info to get before he is qualified to make such sweeping statements, we have to accept the fact that matt is right 99 percent of humanity is just like him, and if we can t learn better ways of dealing with such people than calling them the village idiot, what chances do we have of accomplishing anything after peak oil?