by ian807 » Thu 23 Jul 2009, 16:51:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')obody would be happier than I if my family's and friend's laughter was justified.
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com.
Read that first thing, of course. It didn't help.
I
know there's lots of oil around. I also know that there's much less
cheap oil around, and I know that at a certain point, we hit 2 different walls.
The first "wall" is cost. A lot of the oil (Bakken, for example) is going to be much too expensive to extract. This could be overcome if we're willing to pay, but there are limits to this. The second "wall" is just plain physics. Eventually, you use more energy getting the stuff out than you get from it.
If I remember right, we currently use about 1 barrel of oil to extract 30 (on average). Eventually, that ratio is less than 1 to 1. Absent of some yet, uninvented technology, that's where we stop.
There are things we could do if we started now. We could transition to a much lower energy footprint society fairly easily if we used the remaining oil to invest in nuclear, coal, natural gas, hydro, wind, solar and geothermal energy technologies. We wouldn't be anywhere near as wealthy or able, but we'd all survive.
But it's too late. Really.
Our worldwide "just-in-time" food distribution system runs on money and oil. Sudden disruptions in either mean we don't have so much to eat next year (nothing at all in some cases). Hit the world oil supply hard and fast enough and it might be a very long time before we can make that transitions. A very long time. A lot of use would die in that very long time. That's what I fear now.
It's not oil decline and price increase, per se, that will get us. It's that
plus the delicate balance of an extremely complex society that puts us at risk. We're just too near the edge on food, water, manufactured items, medicine, and so on. Putting new energy systems in place and on line takes a lot of
time and... energy. Any serious disruption in oil supply (e.g. Russia, Iran, Venezuala and Mexico all stop selling outside their own countries, or the Arab states won't sell to us at all) and we ... stop. For quite a while.