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We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 09:42:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'C')hina will not survive. They are the most poorly placed country in all of this, worse even than the continent of Africa. The facts are China has 25% of the world's mouths, 6% of the world's fresh water, 7% of the world's arable land.


So basically, you are saying, China is, as it has been, for many centuries. The only change in the last few centuries has been an improvement in the degree of consolidation of the frontier territories. They are more Han than they have ever been, and better connected to the East than ever before. When Joe Merchant of the West wants to ship product, do you think he is going to want to send it West over dirt roads, mountains, and crazed fanatics, or do you suppose, he'll send it East to the coast, over giant paved roads patrolled by Han military forces?

China not only will survive, but will likely survive intact.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey also have a gangster system in place still that has murdered and butchered over 100 Million of it's own citizen's.


And this is different from administrations of previous centuries, in exactly what way?

China is, and has been essentially forever, ruled by an autocratic top that achieved power through military victory, a professional, top level bureaucracy, leading a vast, somewhat corrupt working class bureaucracy, and fodder.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 10:05:49

To the topic at hand though, the unwinding... A recent experience gives me pause, and puts doubts to my wishing that the unwinding would happen not soon. Just a simple thing, but apparently not atypical.

My twenty year old A/C goes belly up, and I call a trusted contractor to come give it a poke, and basically its some model specific part that is no longer available thats just plain ole broke. A part that looks to me very much like one that is supposed to define the designed life expectancy of the unit. So, hey, its twenty years old, there's more efficient models available; its probably time to replace it. Heck, called the bank, and they'd be more than happy to set me up a line of credit to do a nice pile of energy saving home improvements; my job is fine, even in the current mess, so it'd even sorta make sense.

What do I do?
I re-fabricate the broken part and install it myself.

My conclusion, even the people with the means to restart economic activity; won't. They have the means because they understood economics in the first place; and now its painfully obvious... its broken, badly. Not sure what kind of thing or world will move in, in its place, but I'd rather be sitting on cash and tradeable commodities than on a new, energy saving, air conditioner and refrigerator.

Hard to buy bread with a refrigerator.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby outcast » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 10:20:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'C')hina will not survive. They are the most poorly placed country in all of this, worse even than the continent of Africa. The facts are China has 25% of the world's mouths, 6% of the world's fresh water, 7% of the world's arable land. They also have a gangster system in place still that has murdered and butchered over 100 Million of it's own citizen's. In the news this morning, they are starting to have riots and over 100 killed in clashes. You can educate yourself about the butchery of Chinese Communism here. http://www.ninecommentaries.com



The vast majority died because of a frack up in industrial policy, not through any sort of holocaust.

Those rioters were attacking anything in sight. Shit happens.


EDIT: And it looks like your "nine commentaries" is part of the Epoch Times, an FLG propaganda organization. Not everything they say is true.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby jasonraymondson » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 10:25:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'T')o the topic at hand though, the unwinding... A recent experience gives me pause, and puts doubts to my wishing that the unwinding would happen not soon. Just a simple thing, but apparently not atypical.

My twenty year old A/C goes belly up, and I call a trusted contractor to come give it a poke, and basically its some model specific part that is no longer available thats just plain ole broke. A part that looks to me very much like one that is supposed to define the designed life expectancy of the unit. So, hey, its twenty years old, there's more efficient models available; its probably time to replace it. Heck, called the bank, and they'd be more than happy to set me up a line of credit to do a nice pile of energy saving home improvements; my job is fine, even in the current mess, so it'd even sorta make sense.

What do I do?
I re-fabricate the broken part and install it myself.

My conclusion, even the people with the means to restart economic activity; won't. They have the means because they understood economics in the first place; and now its painfully obvious... its broken, badly. Not sure what kind of thing or world will move in, in its place, but I'd rather be sitting on cash and tradeable commodities than on a new, energy saving, air conditioner and refrigerator.

Hard to buy bread with a refrigerator.


Hard to keep food from spoiling without one too.

Of course without city provided electricity it would probably cost 4000 dollars for all the solar panels and needed supplies to run one.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 10:28:31

There is nothing essential that can not be kept in the absence of refrigeration.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby jasonraymondson » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 11:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'T')here is nothing essential that can not be kept in the absence of refrigeration.



meat? Dairy? sure, tell that all of the people around the world who don't have refrigeration how they like eating maggoted food.

I would rather have refrigeration than a shotgun
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby JJ » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 11:10:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'T')here is nothing essential that can not be kept in the absence of refrigeration.



meat? Dairy? sure, tell that all of the people around the world who don't have refrigeration how they like eating maggoted food.

I would rather have refrigeration than a shotgun


which is why Bing cooks with so much salt fish and salted shrimp paste and a contributing factor to my high blood pressure...
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 11:21:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'T')here is nothing essential that can not be kept in the absence of refrigeration.


meat? Dairy? sure, tell that all of the people around the world who don't have refrigeration how they like eating maggoted food.


Meat can be cured, jerked, and salted into oblivion; more durable than plastic! Dried and salted fish, sold from an open, wooden box, perfectly common in most of the world. When you aren't eating it, you can use it as pesticide. :P

Dairy? Cheeses have been waxed and stored in the absence of refrigeration for centuries; which is pretty much the only dairy product I have any interest in as long term necessity anyway. I'd be better off if ice cream didn't exist, and I'd not give it a second thought if liquid milk never left the farm.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby odegaard » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 13:59:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '.')..
Hard to keep food from spoiling without one too.

Of course without city provided electricity it would probably cost 4000 dollars for all the solar panels and needed supplies to run one.

I hope your future grandkids like beans and rice because they're going to be eating A LOT of it.
In a post PO world where electricity becomes an expensive commodity I think people will be eating plenty of non-perishable foods that does NOT require refrigeration.

Sure we'll still have things like ice cream, but it's going to be a luxury.
It will be something you'll treat a woman to on a date to impress her. :mrgreen:
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby Quinny » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 14:04:55

Rather a sweeping statement.

Three entirely different systems with entirely different histories and entirely different levels of efficiency in all areas not just in your words 'mass murder'. :roll:

Stick to your factual clips/quotes it makes you seem intelligent.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'T')here is no system in the history of the world that achieved the efficiencies of mass murder like National Socialism in Germany or the Communist regimes of Russia and China. The how about is that historically your claims have no factual basis.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby jasonraymondson » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 15:12:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '.')..
Hard to keep food from spoiling without one too.

Of course without city provided electricity it would probably cost 4000 dollars for all the solar panels and needed supplies to run one.

I hope your future grandkids like beans and rice because they're going to be eating A LOT of it.
In a post PO world where electricity becomes an expensive commodity I think people will be eating plenty of non-perishable foods that does NOT require refrigeration.

Sure we'll still have things like ice cream, but it's going to be a luxury.
It will be something you'll treat a woman to on a date to impress her. :mrgreen:


pretty sure I will have a refrigerator and the electricity to run it. I also plan to get keep my indoor plumbing and toilet paper.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby beamofthewave » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 17:42:29

Go watch the Grapes of Wrath for a preview of the suffering we here in the USA are in store for. 7 million died in this country from the last depression due to starvation. Our system of throw away people is not all that compassionate or carrying for the unemployed.

Also I do believe the electricity is going by by. Capitalism does not believe in up grading apparently because my understanding is that we have not upgraded for decades and we sure dont have the money to now that we gave the treasury to Goldman Sachs. I was in the Peace Corps two years and got to live without it and I am here to tell you that you are going to miss it immensely. As for toilet paper, that did not exist, just use water, figure it out yourself. I hear with having given the banks 30 trillion we are all headed for Cambodian style living, that should be exciting-not-no work, no money, lots of water born parasitic diseases. Oh well, people in this country think the rich care about them and are they going to be in for a surprise, soon we will get to see capitalism at its finest. What an evil economic theory. I am so glad it is now a dead economic theory and we will have to figure something else out. I am still working and I am spending no money, not one dime for anything from now on in case my kid and I end up being economic refugees like lots of people become in depressions.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby gnm » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 17:59:15

Yeah its all capitalisms fault. We should all go move to a workers paradise like DPRK or maybe China or Burma to see how good they have it without capitalism! Yeah we're in for a shitestorm all right but don't you think you're simplifying it a bit too narrowly? :badgrin:

Oh and ya can't turn off my refrigeration or power... Its all solar-PV... :mrgreen:

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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby beamofthewave » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 18:48:27

Never, ever said fascist dictatorship was the answer, now that our economic system is dead we are going to have to find something else to replace it and I truly hope it isnt going to be a fascist dictatorship like the countries you mentioned. At least the Bush family will be gone to Paraguy to their compound once TSHTF here, hopefully the rest of the elites will get out too, they have made enough of a mess here with their free market lies and compassionate capitalism lies. Bush will be watching us all on his big screen TV from the safety of his compound in Paraguy saying 'I sure hope someone helps those people," like he did for all the American citizens on their rooftops during Katrina.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby odegaard » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 19:20:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s this Phase II.0 or just plain Vanilla Phase II?...

I sincerely believe post PO, we will go back to the single income family.
Notice I said "single income" and not "single working" big difference.
Ohh...They'll be plenty of work for women to do, they just won't be paid work:
*dodges all the flying rocks from angry feminists*

This recession is killing off jobs that we will never see return.
If there's only 1 job opening and 2 people who want it: a man and woman who will get the job?
I believe that modern feminism was made possible because oil / cheap energy made the economy expand so there was plenty of paying jobs for BOTH men and women.
Once oil dries up so does feminism.
That's my theory....and that's just the beginning phase.
I expect to see this happen within my lifetime --> society returning back to the single income family.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby vision-master » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 19:26:43

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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby nobodypanic » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 19:40:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s this Phase II.0 or just plain Vanilla Phase II?...

I sincerely believe post PO, we will go back to the single income family.
Notice I said "single income" and not "single working" big difference.
Ohh...They'll be plenty of work for women to do, they just won't be paid work:
*dodges all the flying rocks from angry feminists*

This recession is killing off jobs that we will never see return.
If there's only 1 job opening and 2 people who want it: a man and woman who will get the job?
I believe that modern feminism was made possible because oil / cheap energy made the economy expand so there was plenty of paying jobs for BOTH men and women.
Once oil dries up so does feminism.
That's my theory....and that's just the beginning phase.
I expect to see this happen within my lifetime --> society returning back to the single income family.

not so fast jimbo. :P
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Women are holding onto their jobs more than their male counterparts in the recession as the types of jobs women hold generally offer more stability, albeit at less pay.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-01-11-unemployment-rate-sexes_N.htm
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby Tyler_JC » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 19:59:34

Who is more likely to get laid off in this recession, the school teacher and the nurse or the investment banker and the construction worker?

The first category is a field dominated by women, the second by men.

There's your unemployment gap.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 20:12:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s this Phase II.0 or just plain Vanilla Phase II? Because if it is just Phase II then how will we ever get to Phase II.I and be done with it?


Job losses from the start of the US recession, which started about New Year's 2008, have been very consistent. They drop every month like clockwork.

This is still Phase I. Phase II would be an acceleration down or a period of low or no job losses.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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