[charliehelyes]

As many of you may know saudi arabia has 'tossed aside' its production cap this means that it is pumping 100% in a race to keep up with demand but this is a race they can never win puming at 100% will just make the downside of the peak more steep, another sign is oil is now at $56.80 if this brakes the record of a few weeks ago $58 i will be worried. I think there should be a thread to discuss the news we have got in the last week and also to post any short term signs that we are peaking.!

[Raxozanne]

I think we are probably entering the recession cycle (or will be very soon). We should soon be seeing a recession which will bring oil consumption down for a while until demand once again radically outstripes supply and then expect another recession.

[lowem]

So you're thinking of the "bumpy plateau" scenario? Hit the wall, bounce back, hit the wall again ...

[charliehelyes]

i think there will be 2 peaks one in 2005 and supply will go down it will then go up for a while due to some super projects in 2007-2008 then it will keep going down

[MicroHydro]

It is possible that global oil production might reach a slightly higher level later in the decade, after a recession.

But, business and political leaders worldwide are now becoming aware that the days of cheap oil are gone forever. That changes everything. For psychological and political purposes. peak oil is here now.

[smiley]

I have some doubts about these superprojects. Of the "super" projects that were started up in the past couple of years, I can't name one which lived up to its expectation.

For the future I only see one project which deserves the name megaproject. But the Caspian is slowly turning into a nightmare. BP and Statoil recently bailed out leaving huge losses behind.

[Aaron]

The global "race" for oil & gas resources began years ago, and has culminated in the strategic military & economic activities we see today, as the powers that be position themselves for the game of the millennium.

America's occupation of Iraq has opened the gateway for possible Chinese military adventurism, in addition to the virtual economic colonization China practices today.

The Russian's seem reluctant to accept foreign investments in developing their oil production capabilities.

OPEC has announced they are getting out of the oil business completely, to concentrate on "spin" press releases and market manipulation.

Western Europeans seems to believe they will conserve their way forward, as energy supplies shrink.

India & Africa remain teeming cauldrons of humanity which are almost certain to experience social unrest. war and a human crisis of death & disease not seen in modern times.

Worried about peak oil?

Me too...

More worried about the crazy monkeys with the big guns though.

[Such]

oh yeah... we're in the "bumpy plateau" phase now... which I think could go on for a decade or more... and probably delay the ultimate "peak date"... which will be a really random event given teh ups and downs we're going through.

a bumpy plateau is probably better than a headlong charge into brick wall.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '.')...
The Russian's seem reluctant to accept foreign investments in developing their oil production capabilities.

......

[Leanan]

I think we may well have hit peak last year. Yes, there are other projects scheduled to come online, but not enough to make up for the decline of all the others.

Kind of like the U.S. depletion curve:



The peak was in 1970. The discovery of oil in Alaska increased production briefly, but not to a point higher than the peak.

If Ghawar is in depletion...I just can't see any new discoveries making up for that.

[RidgeRunner]

Aaron wrote:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Russian's seem reluctant to accept foreign investments in developing their oil production capabilities.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he peak was in 1970. The discovery of oil in Alaska increased production briefly, but not to a point higher than the peak.

If Ghawar is in depletion...I just can't see any new discoveries making up for that.

[Leanan]

I think the downslope will be very steep. A lot of the predictions are based on U.S. depletion curves, but those were exploited with old technology. We've gotten about as efficient as we are likely to get at finding and extracting oil, and the result is wells with shorter, steeper lives.

I'm not sure if that will result in a hard crash, economically speaking. It might. OTOH, we have so much room to cut back, we may fool ourselves for years. Developing lighter and more efficient cars, switching to telecommuting and carpooling, turning the thermostat down in winter and up in summer, rolling blackouts, like in Baghdad. We may go on for quite awhile, before people realize the days of SUVs and airconditioning are gone forever.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am not exactly sure of these numbers but from what I remember from last year Russia was pumping around 9.5mbd. Then came the Yukos situation and production dropped. The most recent production figures I have heard about for Russia, and these may be a couple months old, was that they were pumping somewhere between 6-8mbd.

[MonteQuest]

Moderators Note:

charliehelyes has been banned from this site for past troll posting, but since this subject is getting good debate, I'll let it stay.

MQ

[k_semler]

*shakes magic 8 ball* *turns over* "All Signs Point To Yes". Uh-Oh!

[Grimnir]

If Saudi Arabia is tossing aside quotas, it implies that they are capable of producing more than the quota lets them. Therefore, we are not yet at peak. All that's happened is that demand has caught up with supply under the old quota system (or, more cynically, SA wants to take advantage of high prices by selling as much as possible). Things could get unpleasant without a swing producer, but I don't think this announcement by itself means that peak is here.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', 'I')f Saudi Arabia is tossing aside quotas, it implies that they are capable of producing more than the quota lets them. Therefore, we are not yet at peak. All that's happened is that demand has caught up with supply under the old quota system (or, more cynically, SA wants to take advantage of high prices by selling as much as possible). Things could get unpleasant without a swing producer, but I don't think this announcement by itself means that peak is here.

[Pops]

This little bit of news was shocking to me simply because OPEC “quotas” have been part of the landscape my entire adult life.

The whole point of the cartel is to regulate production by each member so all can benefit from higher prices and or cool down the market to keep up demand. Even if the rest of the members are pumping full tilt and the quota only limits SA from pumping it’s spare capacity the system still works. OTOH, if SA has nothing to spare, then at least for now the issue is moot – the limiting factor truly is physical supply, not politics or profit.

As I mentioned on the other thread, with the meeting with Bush coming up this is a good PR move by the Saudis.

I agree that we aren’t necessarily there yet – although like everyone I’m merely speculating. That hardly matters of course, whether supply continues to increase or not, as long as it limits demand the price will remain high.

Of course to be somewhat optimistic in this doomsday thread, don’t forget that demand has been rising fairly dramatically. If the market for marshmallows increased suddenly it would take a while for the mechanics of production to catch up as well. There are lots of constraints such as drilling, shipping, refining, blah, blah that don’t simply multiply overnight.

Fair and balanced – that’s my motto!

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', 'I')f Saudi Arabia is tossing aside quotas, it implies that they are capable of producing more than the quota lets them. Therefore, we are not yet at peak. All that's happened is that demand has caught up with supply under the old quota system (or, more cynically, SA wants to take advantage of high prices by selling as much as possible). Things could get unpleasant without a swing producer, but I don't think this announcement by itself means that peak is here.