by kjmclark » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 08:42:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', 'W')hat I don't get is why there is such alarm over this particular flu when it doesn't seem to kill many people at all. I have the idea that it is more contagious than most flu's, but is this correct? And even if it is, why does this matter if it isn't particularly dangerous? Are they concerned that it could mutate into something more lethal? Currently I can't see why I should be anymore concerned about H1N1 than any other flu. Awaiting anxiety-raising posts with keen interest

It would really help if you folks who think this is no big deal could go out and read about the 1918 Spanish flu. The reason this is a problem is that the 1918 flu was
just like this. It also jumped from animals without much warning, was a novel recombination, had mild symptoms at first, and spread easily. It turned out to be the worst flu pandemic in recorded history. People were dropping dead on the streets over most of the world in the fall, after a spring where it mostly caused only a three-day fever. The worst death tolls were amongst 20-40 year olds, which doesn't happen with normal flu.
Here's how to think of it. With a normal flu, some percentage of the population has had it or a close variant. Kids are as susceptible as other people to having full symptoms, but most people, except the youngest and oldest, have strong enough immune systems to get them through. With novel virus that has just jumped to humans, there is no herd immunity - no one has had it before. In the 1918 epidemic, kids spread the flu, but mostly had mild symptoms. Having a strong 20-40 year old immune system seemed to increase your mortality risk.
Anyone who's studied the 1918 flu isn't taking any comfort from the low death toll so far. The fact that it's a novel virus means that it could become a deadly pandemic - you can't get that from a more common flu virus. The fact that it spreads easily among people is a dangerous sign. Most novel flu virus doesn't spread between people easily.
The other point is that it takes four-six months to make a flu vaccine in large quantities. If this turns out to follow the pattern of the 1918 flu, we don't have a lot of time to make vaccine, and we certainly don't have time to produce even a billion doses.
So, so far, it looks very similar to the worst flu pandemic in modern history. It probably won't turn out that way, but it pretty easily could. You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?