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H1N1 Swine Flu Thread pt 2

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby cipi604 » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 04:20:00

A lot of people had the swine flu but never reported, even worked those days.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby yeahbut » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 04:46:48

What I don't get is why there is such alarm over this particular flu when it doesn't seem to kill many people at all. I have the idea that it is more contagious than most flu's, but is this correct? And even if it is, why does this matter if it isn't particularly dangerous? Are they concerned that it could mutate into something more lethal? Currently I can't see why I should be anymore concerned about H1N1 than any other flu. Awaiting anxiety-raising posts with keen interest :wink:
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 05:24:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', ' ')Are they concerned that it could mutate into something more lethal? Currently I can't see why I should be anymore concerned about H1N1 than any other flu. Awaiting anxiety-raising posts with keen interest :wink:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters) - A leading virologist has described the new H1N1 influenza virus as "very unstable", meaning it could mix and swap genetic material when exposed to other viruses.

The new virus, which has infected 5,251 people in 30 countries and killed 61, has displayed great efficiency in spreading among people, said Guan Yi, a microbiologist with the University of Hong Kong.

"This virus has been around only a few months, it is very unstable ... and we know that its presence is dramatically increasing in human population, so the chance of it meeting with H5N1 is actually increased," Guan said in an interview on Tuesday.

"Both H1N1 and H5N1 are unstable so the chances of them exchanging genetic material are higher, whereas a stable (seasonal flu) virus is less likely to take on genetic material."


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG147261.htm

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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby Micki » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 07:05:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bluekachina', 'Y')ou must not live in Victoria.

I've never understood your position on many of your posts.

Most times you seem pro-corporate, but this time you seem to be against big pharma.

You seem to support issues from the right. But I don't understand this one.

Are you saying you are a flu denialist. I guess there always has to be a first.

Oh boy, you must have missed every point I am trying to make.
And I do live in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne.
It is times like these I wonder why I even bother.

Anyway, besides all the scaremoongering, is there ANY evidence suggesting swine flu is any more dangerous than normal flu????
I have still not seen any evidence pointing to that.

Here are two recent articles by Engdahl on the subject, I was however looking for evidence of deadliness way before then and could not find anything suggesting swine more dangerous than normal flu.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorial ... /0605.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=13835
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 07:13:55

M,

You are correct, today it is no more dangerous except in its ability to become dangerous.

Today I can fill up my car without a problem, that does not mean that there is no threat to that in the future or that I can carry on my life without considering the possiblity that oil will become scarce.

Today the Koreas are at peace (well they are not shooting at one another any way) that does not mean that I can ignore the developments in East Asia.

My car is running fine but I still need to have the timing belt replaced because if I do not then when the belt does break I will need an engine rebuild.

Swine flu is not a problem today... we did not know that when it first hit the headlines. Swine flu is not a problem today, but there are some things about it that make it worrisome for the future. Swine flu may never be a problem but that does not mean that it does not warrent our attention.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby alokin » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 07:38:31

You are right it is not a problem today, but it might be one tomorrow. But what Micky said is equally possible that this is all a story made up by big pharmaceutical companies to boost sales. Or both of them. At the moment there is quite a bit of over reaction, I even saw an elderly couple with masks.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 07:51:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'Y')But what Micky said is equally possible that this is all a story made up by big pharmaceutical companies to boost sales.


So the CDC and WHO are owned by big pharma? Perhaps the Mexican Persident is in their back pocket? The same for other researchers who are concerned?

The choice is not between this is the next killer flu or a big pharma conspiracy. This is a choice between being a genetic mutation that is on its way to becoming a big killer flu or it is a genetic dead end of sorts. This does not mean that big pharma will not try to make money off it.. (but if it is becoming a killer flu I do not care if they make money as long as they do their job) but we can not imply agency onto big pharma either.

Will people over react? Of course. Does that somehow validate not being appropriately concerned? No it does not.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby kjmclark » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 08:42:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', 'W')hat I don't get is why there is such alarm over this particular flu when it doesn't seem to kill many people at all. I have the idea that it is more contagious than most flu's, but is this correct? And even if it is, why does this matter if it isn't particularly dangerous? Are they concerned that it could mutate into something more lethal? Currently I can't see why I should be anymore concerned about H1N1 than any other flu. Awaiting anxiety-raising posts with keen interest :wink:


It would really help if you folks who think this is no big deal could go out and read about the 1918 Spanish flu. The reason this is a problem is that the 1918 flu was just like this. It also jumped from animals without much warning, was a novel recombination, had mild symptoms at first, and spread easily. It turned out to be the worst flu pandemic in recorded history. People were dropping dead on the streets over most of the world in the fall, after a spring where it mostly caused only a three-day fever. The worst death tolls were amongst 20-40 year olds, which doesn't happen with normal flu.

Here's how to think of it. With a normal flu, some percentage of the population has had it or a close variant. Kids are as susceptible as other people to having full symptoms, but most people, except the youngest and oldest, have strong enough immune systems to get them through. With novel virus that has just jumped to humans, there is no herd immunity - no one has had it before. In the 1918 epidemic, kids spread the flu, but mostly had mild symptoms. Having a strong 20-40 year old immune system seemed to increase your mortality risk.

Anyone who's studied the 1918 flu isn't taking any comfort from the low death toll so far. The fact that it's a novel virus means that it could become a deadly pandemic - you can't get that from a more common flu virus. The fact that it spreads easily among people is a dangerous sign. Most novel flu virus doesn't spread between people easily.

The other point is that it takes four-six months to make a flu vaccine in large quantities. If this turns out to follow the pattern of the 1918 flu, we don't have a lot of time to make vaccine, and we certainly don't have time to produce even a billion doses.

So, so far, it looks very similar to the worst flu pandemic in modern history. It probably won't turn out that way, but it pretty easily could. You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby yeahbut » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 09:24:33

Great, thanks cur and kjm, I am now much more concerned :)

It's fun facts like the 70% reduction in the zooplankton population since 1950, and giggle-fests like mattduke's video of the utterly clueless Inspector General of the Federal Reserve, together with a good chuckle about how similar this flu is to the 1918 one that keep me awake and staring at the ceiling at 3 am...thanks PO 8O

The ski season is starting really early this year in NZ, and guess who come pouring across the ditch in large numbers every winter...yep our old mates the Aussies.

Maybe I'm gonna join the herd and start putting a bit less of my attention on this stuff, and a bit more on America's Got Talent. I need some sleep...
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby WildRose » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 13:11:55

I work for Alberta Health. As you can imagine, over the past several months we (all staff) have received updates on the progression of swine flu. Our latest update has indicated that the chief concern is what the virus will be like when it returns in the fall, the fact that its virulence could change. Alberta Health is watching how the situation unfolds in the southern hemisphere for clues as to what we may be facing in the fall/winter.

There is also the danger (not mentioned in our updates) that this flu and the newly resurfacing H5N1 virus could combine.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 16:42:33

"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 10 Jun 2009, 22:48:39

Swine flu similarities to 1918 bug has scientists worried

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hilling parallels between the spread of H1N1 swine flu and the 1918 Spanish flu that killed millions have disease experts bracing for an onslaught of new infections and a possible second wave of illness.

Dr. Ethan Rubinstein, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Manitoba, said experts believe the H1N1 influenza will follow the same pattern as the 1918 pandemic, as the virus continues to spread in more countries and causes a disproportionate amount of severe illness in First Nation communities.

The 1918 pandemic started with a mild wave of flu in spring that fizzled out, resurfaced in the fall and hit hard in November, 1918, The flu circled the globe and killed anywhere from 20 to 50 million people -- more lives than the First World War claimed.

"The working hypothesis now is that this pandemic will follow the 1918 [pattern]," Dr. Rubinstein said after a lecture at the University of Winnipeg on Wednesday.

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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 11 Jun 2009, 12:47:46

wc;your quote from Guan Yi , microbiologist ,Uni, Hong Kong

"HINI isvery unstable"

unstable sounds ugly
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Re: THE Swine Flu Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 11 Jun 2009, 12:50:09

The first but not the last.
WHO declares first 21st century flu pandemic
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')ENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization declared the first flu pandemic of the 21st century on Thursday, urging countries to shore up defenses against the virus which is "not stoppable" but has proved mainly mild so far.

The United Nations agency raised its pandemic flu alert to phase 6 on a six-point scale, indicating the first influenza pandemic since 1968 is under way.

"This is a very important and challenging day for all of us. It is important because we will be raising our pandemic alert level to level 6," WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan told reporters on a teleconference.

"At this time, the global assessment is that we are seeing a moderate pandemic."

Acting on the recommendation of flu experts, the WHO reiterated its advice to its 193 member countries not to close borders or impose travel restrictions to halt the movement of people, goods and services.

The move to phase 6 reflects the fact that the disease, widely known as swine flu, was spreading geographically, but does not indicate how virulent it is.

A unanimous experts' decision was based on an overall assessment in the eight most heavily hit countries -- Australia, Britain, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the United States -- that the virus is spreading in a sustained way in communities, according to Chan.

"Collectively, looking at that, we are satisfied that this virus is spreading to a number of a countries and it is not stoppable," she said.

"Moving to pandemic phase six level does not imply we will see an increase in the number of deaths or very severe cases.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE55A1U720090611
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Re: THE Swine Flu Thread (merged)

Unread postby IMSancho » Fri 12 Jun 2009, 05:46:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')wiss pharmaceuticals company Novartis says it has successfully produced a first batch of swine flu vaccine weeks ahead of expectations.
---------
Novartis said more than 30 governments have requested vaccine supplies, including the US Department of Health and Human Service, which placed a $US289 million ($A352.96 million) order in May.


http://business.smh.com.au/business/nov ... -c5x9.html

Now that's some nice timing :lol:
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 12 Jun 2009, 07:05:13

WHO: Swine flu pandemic has begun, 1st in 41 years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')wine flu is now formally a pandemic, a declaration by U.N. health officials that will speed vaccine production and spur government spending to combat the first global flu epidemic in 41 years. Thursday's announcement by the World Health Organization doesn't mean the virus is any more lethal — only that its spread is considered unstoppable.

link
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 12 Jun 2009, 07:13:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'w')c;your quote from Guan Yi , microbiologist ,Uni, Hong Kong

"HINI isvery unstable"

unstable sounds ugly


As I understand it (and my training is not in the sciences) is that some viruses are still sloppy in how they reproduce while other viruses are more stable. The annual flu viruses are relatively stable, the make small changes every year that we must account for but more or less stay together.

The newer flu viruses, however, are sheddng bits of genetic material all the time as they reproduce so there is a better chance of combination and recombination with other flu viruses so there is a chance (how would we quantify it?) that before H1N1 stabilizes it could change yet again.

It could be ugly but like most things about the future, we do not know what it will be like. Of course once we know it will be too late to proactively prepare because the dye will be cast and everyone will either be seeking to prepare or saying that it is nothing to be concerned about. If I have to choose to be late to either the "it was nothing" party or the "it is really bad" party; I would rather be late to the former because I was getting ready for the latter.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby vaseline2008 » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 03:16:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '[')b]WHO: Swine flu pandemic has begun, 1st in 41 years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')wine flu is now formally a pandemic, a declaration by U.N. health officials that will speed vaccine production and spur government spending to combat the first global flu epidemic in 41 years. Thursday's announcement by the World Health Organization doesn't mean the virus is any more lethal — only that its spread is considered unstoppable.

link

From your link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Still, about half of the people who have died from swine flu were previously young and healthy — people who are not usually susceptible to flu. Swine flu is also crowding out regular flu viruses. Both features are typical of pandemic flu viruses.
Swine flu is also continuing to spread during the start of summer in the northern hemisphere. Normally, flu viruses disappear with warm weather, but swine flu is proving to be resilient.

"Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection," Chan warned.


Most have seen the articles that state that the victims are unhealthy (diabetes, asthma, arthritis, etc...) but the 1918 virus (which was a strain of H1N1) also affected the 20-40 age bracket.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 03:33:25

We are starting to see our first swine flu deaths. A 30 yr old woman in Boston, A 5 yr old in Minnesota, a 49 yr old in New Jersey.

This is a time of year when there should be no flu here.

The fact that it is persisting in warm weather is not a good sign.
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Re: Swine Flu Pandemic in Australia

Unread postby yeahbut » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 07:41:48

I'm intrigued by the way swine flu is being reported on here in NZ. There is no mention of the virus' potential to alter into something more lethal- it simply isn't discussed at all in any of the MSM stories I've seen or heard. I'm starting to think there must be an agreement in place to not panic people.

On the 6 oclock news tonight, the announcer read out a story about the swine flu 'parties' thing, and said that people were doing it so they could "get it over and done with". Which is an unfinished sentence- they want to catch swine flu and 'get it over and done with' while it has mild symptoms, because they are afraid it may turn lethal later on. That's quite an omission, leaving out the main point of the story.

Any discussion of the potential threats of swine flu centre on disruption of essential services, and financial implications, nothing about lethal mutations, the 1918 pandemic etc.

Is this the same elsewhere, or is it just a weird little New Zealand thing?
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