by patience » Sun 07 Jun 2009, 11:14:42
I spent something over 30 years developing what we called "hard automation", and implementing robots into manufacturing functions. Past member of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers, and involved in their Robotics group in Louisville, KY, where Vern Estes of GE at Appliance Park in Louisvlile, was a pioneer in the field. I can state unequivocally that the effect of robots in the workplace has always been to ADD jobs, when they are successfully implemented. The result is greater output, and the need to have more highly trained people look after the robots and automation. If these are poorly applied, the company pays a big cost for the failure and returns to the old ways.
The Japanese are noted for their failures in CNC applications, as they are with the grand promises of robotics. Lots of big hype, short on delivery of results, like the "futuristic" cars that the automakers display each year, but never put in production. CNC machining and robotics provide consistency and higher quality where they are correctly applied, like programming, garbage in-garbage out. Lots of machine shops in the US went belly up trying to use CNC to do one-off jobs best suited to manual methods, and as many went uner trying to compete with CNC in its' best applications of making 5 to 500 pieces of something, before people learned the right ways. Robots are currently best at painting cars, welding mass produced items, and doing dangerous handling tasks, like loading a forging press with red hot steel parts.
The problems with inadequate nursing staffing go far beyond demographics. (Wife is a nursing drop out.) The business model of hospitals and nursing homes, which is basically ROI oriented, is at the root of it, followed by the insurance model, litigation, and many other woes. Robots do what they are programmed to do, by people, who invariably screw it up. (Old saying--To err is human, to really foul things up requires a computer.) Both robotics and computers are means of leveraging human effort. If robotics can be WELL applied to some aspect of medicine, we will like the results, but the simplistic idea of directly replacing a nurse with a robot ignores the basic function of a nurse, which is human judgement, a typically Japanese error. It is fine to scrap a few thousand parts getting a manuacturing line set up and running smoothly, but nursing does not have that margin for error. People get irritated if too many die while trying to get a thing worked out, and medical care is fraught with the problem of unique problems--the antithesis of programmed responses.
The same fears were hyped about computerization taking away jobs, and came out the same way--growth resulted, not job losses. Mexico has banned the import of a lot of heavy equipment out of the same fears, that it would put a lot of peon laborers out of work, and cause disruption. So, they stew in their poverty. The steam engine and factories in England met with the same resistance, because the cottage industry of handcarving wooden pulleys for sailing ship rigging was decimated. Yes, job losses happened for a time, but that was the start of that little thing we call the Industrial Revolution, in hindsight.
The future will require us to adapt, an uncomfortable thing for complacent humans, but necessary. Our jobs will change, and we will, too, like it or not.
Local fix-it guy..