by Madpaddy » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 09:17:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most suprising reaction was from my mortgage broker. He was suprised and thought me exceedingly clever to have figured this all out.
Hmmm, the only person who has taken me seriously was my estate agent, I think they are just trying to humour us unknownelement.
I sent the following to all the national newspapers and guess what (no response). It did get piblished in the parish newsletter though. Didn't notice mass panic on the street on the day of publication. This was in August. Sorry for having to put the letter in and not on a link.
Dear Sir,
Many scapegoats have been trotted out to explain the inexorable rise in the price of oil in recent months. Growth in China and India, economic recovery in the US, attacks by insurgents on Iraqi oil pipelines and instability in Saudi Arabia to name a few. The real culprit has gone largely ignored by the mainstream media and it is this;
Global oil discovery has been declining each year since 1964.
More than 70 percent of remaining oil reserves are in five countries in the Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the expectation is that, within the next 10 years, the world will become almost completely dependent on those countries. For example drilling in the Alaska National Wilderness Reserve will offer only an additional three months of oil.
In 2000, there were 16 discoveries of oil ‘mega-fields’, in 2001, there were eight, and in 2002 only three such discoveries were made. In 2003, there were no discoveries of ‘mega-fields’. (Fields with more than 1 billion barrels).
Today we consume about 6 barrels of oil for every 1 that is discovered.
This brings us to the term Peak Oil. This is not a mountain in Saudi Arabia but a theory based on the studies of Marion King Hubbert a respected geophysicist who announced in 1956, to a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio, Texas, that all the oil production in the United States would soon peak, and, eventually, end.
Five minutes before he was supposed to take the stage, Hubbert’s bosses at Shell Oil called him on the phone and begged him not to go through with it.
Hubbert, by all accounts a stubborn and cantankerous man, defied his superiors, walked onstage and publicly predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970. We use more and more oil each year, he said, but there is only so much in the ground, and in that year the rising rate of demand will meet and surpass the falling rate of supply. Fortunately for Shell Oil, most of his colleagues laughed at him.
For years scientists ignored Hubbert and, more importantly, did not apply his analysis to the rest of the world. Not even after U.S. oil production indeed peaked around 1970, and fell almost every year since, until the United States had to import 60 percent of its oil. Not after shortages and oil wars.
“It was as if a physician diagnosed virulent, metastasised cancer; denial was one of the responses,” said Hubbert’s former colleague Ken Deffeyes, who later taught at the University of Minnesota and is now professor emeritus at Princeton University.
Deffeyes left the industry in the 1960s, he said, concerned that Hubbert was right, but he was one of the few. It was not until the 1990s that a critical mass of scientists returned to the Hubbert calculation, applied it to the entire world and found that the peak year, the beginning of the crisis, would take place no later then 2010, and as early as … well, now.
What government wants to be the first to inform its populace of the unpalatable fact that, as C J Haughey once said, we are living way beyond our means. Oil a gift from nature that took several hundred million years to form has been devoured in a few generations. Meanwhile our roads have seen an explosion of 4x4 s on the school run, in order to offset, I assume, the possibility of flash floods and avalanches.
If serious conservation efforts are undertaken now it may give us a chance to invent our way out of this coming crisis. Many people believe that somewhere there is an invention that will allow cars to run on water and that the ‘powers that be’ have a solution. These people possibly also believe that the moon is made of cheese and that the earth is flat. Hydrogen is often touted as our saviour. Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source. It takes more energy to produce hydrogen than it gives back. Gas and coal also have their own peaks and neither is as convenient and flexible as oil. Remember also that oil is the raw material for fertilisers, pesticides, plastics and pharmaceuticals. Nuclear power can help us extend the date of peak oil but this has become politically incorrect. In any event cars, planes, etc cannot be run on Nuclear power.
The American government, run by oil barons Bush and Cheney have long been aware of Peak Oil. They have decided to embark on a campaign to seize the oil fields of the Middle East rather than commission a new ‘Manhattan Project’ to wean us off oil dependence . Iraq has been conquered and now the sabre is being rattled at Iran. Kuwait is already a client state and the Saudis are huge backers of the Bush administration.
As we go down the path of spending tens of billions on motorways that may not have many cars left to use them, pause for a moment and think how at least some of that money could be better spent on research into alternative fuels. Check out
www.peakoil.com and
www.peakoil.net and make up your own mind.
If the peak oil theorists are wrong we will be left with a better world to live in. If they are right we will find out soon enough and the end of the age of oil will also be the end of the age of economics.
Conserve, cut back, recycle.