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PeakOil is You

responses

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

responses

Unread postby Yavicleus » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 13:04:23

So...the general response I've had from most people when I tell them about Peak Oil, has been silence.

I've emailed my family about it. All my aunts and uncles, my mom and pop, my sister, etc. Nobody responded. I've emailed a few friends. Likewise, no response.

I emailed a few members of various 'Green' organizations at a local college. No response.

I mean, just about everyone I've told tends to just ignore it. Or pretend like it doesn't exist.

It's amazing. The only one I know of in my family that took it seriously is my Grandpa who grew up during the Great Depression. He forwarded my email explaining Peak Oil to everyone he knew. It's like the only ones who can accept that the shit is about to hit the fan, are the old-timers who can remember a time before the great prosperity we have experienced for the past 50+ years.

It amazes me.

Now, I did tell an Economist friend of mine about it, but he shrugged it off with the general economist answer: increased oil prices will lead to increased drilling in the Gulf, in offshore, in deep sea, etc.

I told a good friend of mine who is a hardcore Democrat. One of the Deaniacs. He doesn't seem to get it either. He still thinks that we should tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 'bring down prices so that they don't hurt the working man'. I'm like..."uh...dude, gas prices are cheap. When this hits, gas is going to be like $10 a gallon."

I just don't get it.
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Unread postby heyhoser » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 13:12:17

Similar reactions here. Some look at me like I'm crazy, others brush the math aside and say things like, "Saudia Arabia just wants to make more money," the worst is this response:

"If you don't want to transfer to university, why not just say so?"
Dang it! I wasn't even TALKING about that!
???????????????? :-x
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Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 13:14:20

Its as though life has so traumatized everyone that they have a pat answer (read: taped program) to answer anything outside their programed existence or that challenges them.

Its almost as though the only reason they don't laugh at you like its a movie plot because they might respect your oppinion.

Everyone just amuses me I think, except for one of my family members who is a fundamentalist christian ultra right wing, and she just tells me everything is going to be fine and that its all a hoax.

The most suprising reaction was from my mortgage broker. He was suprised and thought me exceedingly clever to have figured this all out. :-D
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Unread postby killJOY » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 14:11:29

I had an editorial published in our local buttwipe I mean newspaper that went like this:

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/viewp ... ergy.shtml

also in pdf

http://www.rpalumni.org/nolng/pdf/news8.pdf

Exactly ZERO letters appeared in the paper in the weeks following the column.

There was abundant comment, though--on the Pope, Michael Jackson, and gay rights.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Unread postby arretium » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 14:18:53

A very well written piece Killjoy. Good job.

People don't care. I'm not a young as the person that started this post, but I encounter the same problem. I can't even convince my wife. People are sleep walking into the abyss. There's little we can do about it. Hell, I'm no where near prepared as alot of people. The only thing I can do is actually spend money to become prepared... That's right, go buy beans and rice while it is cheap and make sure I buy beans that don't require heating.

You know what let me step back, it's not that people don't care. It's that this problem is so fundamental different than the Western way of life that people can not conceptualize it. Hell I have a hard time with it. Everyday I think, "Nah, we'll find a way out of this. This isn't going to be that bad." Then I think about it some more. People can't handle this kind of information because their whole life has been built around the opposite: cheap and abundant energy. The concept is dymmetrically opposed to their way of life and thinking.
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Unread postby RonMN » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 15:50:27

I hear ya on the beans & rice thing...but i go for the dry & have a few enamel covered metal pots cups etc (from the local sporting goods store) i can cook over a couple of candles...

I wonder how many will think i can wave a magic wand & feed them all because i saved a few bags of beans??? in the mean time they wouldn't consider spending a dime "on such foolishness".
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Unread postby Ludi » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 16:39:24

I've had basically the same response on various messageboards I've posted on about it, either insults, or nothing. No one is interested.

I was afraid it was my method of presenting it, but since I see you all get the same response, it must be the material is just something people are incapable of thinking about.
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Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 16:49:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I')ts as though life has so traumatized everyone that they have a pat answer (read: taped program) to answer anything outside their programed existence or that challenges them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'I')t's that this problem is so fundamental different than the Western way of life that people can not conceptualize it.


Psychologists refer to this phenomenon as "cognitive dissonance."

"if someone is called upon to learn something which contradicts what they already think they know — particularly if they are committed to that prior knowledge — they are likely to resist the new learning."

Explaining peak oil really is akin in many ways to telling somone that the earth is round when they think it's flat...or that the earth revolves around the sun when they think it's at the center of the universe.

I think the reality of peak oil will be very hard on cornucopians and techno-optimists...and many religious people. People who believe that humans have a special place in the universe...and they're so smart and handy they can figure out anything and work their way out of any problem.

"We put a man on the moon! surely this peak oil hogwash is easier to solve than that..."
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Unread postby Yavicleus » Sat 23 Apr 2005, 15:51:05

Heh, out of all of us, KillJoy's story about publishing an editorial and getting ZERO responses seems to be the best example of what I was talking about. It amazes me.

arretium: I'm 26.

I agree with the buying dried beans statement. You can pack in alot of dried beans away, and it really doesn't take that much to cook them. Then again, maybe I'm biased because I just finished making a pot of them. :P

uNkNowN ElEmEnt: I can't even imagine what your conversation with your mortgage broker must have been like. "So mr. Broker, I hope you've been saving up some extra cash for a rainy day...because like, your entire industry is about to suck..."
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Unread postby k_semler » Sun 24 Apr 2005, 23:53:37

Here Lies the United States Of America.

July 04, 1776 - June 23 2005

Epitaph: "The Experiment Is Over."

Rest In Peace.

Eminent Domain Was The Murderer.
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Unread postby ohanian » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 09:07:05

I gave up trying to tell people about peak oil.

I came to this startling conclusions.



1. Anyone with half a brain can figure it out for themselves.

2. Anyone who cannot figure it out for themselves is not worth informing.

3. Anyone who do not want to believe, will never believe.

4. Anyone who is unsure, will still be unsure long after the peak has passed.

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Unread postby Madpaddy » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 09:17:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most suprising reaction was from my mortgage broker. He was suprised and thought me exceedingly clever to have figured this all out.


Hmmm, the only person who has taken me seriously was my estate agent, I think they are just trying to humour us unknownelement.

I sent the following to all the national newspapers and guess what (no response). It did get piblished in the parish newsletter though. Didn't notice mass panic on the street on the day of publication. This was in August. Sorry for having to put the letter in and not on a link.

Dear Sir,

Many scapegoats have been trotted out to explain the inexorable rise in the price of oil in recent months. Growth in China and India, economic recovery in the US, attacks by insurgents on Iraqi oil pipelines and instability in Saudi Arabia to name a few. The real culprit has gone largely ignored by the mainstream media and it is this;

Global oil discovery has been declining each year since 1964.
More than 70 percent of remaining oil reserves are in five countries in the Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the expectation is that, within the next 10 years, the world will become almost completely dependent on those countries. For example drilling in the Alaska National Wilderness Reserve will offer only an additional three months of oil.

In 2000, there were 16 discoveries of oil ‘mega-fields’, in 2001, there were eight, and in 2002 only three such discoveries were made. In 2003, there were no discoveries of ‘mega-fields’. (Fields with more than 1 billion barrels).
Today we consume about 6 barrels of oil for every 1 that is discovered.

This brings us to the term Peak Oil. This is not a mountain in Saudi Arabia but a theory based on the studies of Marion King Hubbert a respected geophysicist who announced in 1956, to a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio, Texas, that all the oil production in the United States would soon peak, and, eventually, end.

Five minutes before he was supposed to take the stage, Hubbert’s bosses at Shell Oil called him on the phone and begged him not to go through with it.
Hubbert, by all accounts a stubborn and cantankerous man, defied his superiors, walked onstage and publicly predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970. We use more and more oil each year, he said, but there is only so much in the ground, and in that year the rising rate of demand will meet and surpass the falling rate of supply. Fortunately for Shell Oil, most of his colleagues laughed at him.

For years scientists ignored Hubbert and, more importantly, did not apply his analysis to the rest of the world. Not even after U.S. oil production indeed peaked around 1970, and fell almost every year since, until the United States had to import 60 percent of its oil. Not after shortages and oil wars.




“It was as if a physician diagnosed virulent, metastasised cancer; denial was one of the responses,” said Hubbert’s former colleague Ken Deffeyes, who later taught at the University of Minnesota and is now professor emeritus at Princeton University.

Deffeyes left the industry in the 1960s, he said, concerned that Hubbert was right, but he was one of the few. It was not until the 1990s that a critical mass of scientists returned to the Hubbert calculation, applied it to the entire world and found that the peak year, the beginning of the crisis, would take place no later then 2010, and as early as … well, now.

What government wants to be the first to inform its populace of the unpalatable fact that, as C J Haughey once said, we are living way beyond our means. Oil a gift from nature that took several hundred million years to form has been devoured in a few generations. Meanwhile our roads have seen an explosion of 4x4 s on the school run, in order to offset, I assume, the possibility of flash floods and avalanches.

If serious conservation efforts are undertaken now it may give us a chance to invent our way out of this coming crisis. Many people believe that somewhere there is an invention that will allow cars to run on water and that the ‘powers that be’ have a solution. These people possibly also believe that the moon is made of cheese and that the earth is flat. Hydrogen is often touted as our saviour. Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source. It takes more energy to produce hydrogen than it gives back. Gas and coal also have their own peaks and neither is as convenient and flexible as oil. Remember also that oil is the raw material for fertilisers, pesticides, plastics and pharmaceuticals. Nuclear power can help us extend the date of peak oil but this has become politically incorrect. In any event cars, planes, etc cannot be run on Nuclear power.

The American government, run by oil barons Bush and Cheney have long been aware of Peak Oil. They have decided to embark on a campaign to seize the oil fields of the Middle East rather than commission a new ‘Manhattan Project’ to wean us off oil dependence . Iraq has been conquered and now the sabre is being rattled at Iran. Kuwait is already a client state and the Saudis are huge backers of the Bush administration.

As we go down the path of spending tens of billions on motorways that may not have many cars left to use them, pause for a moment and think how at least some of that money could be better spent on research into alternative fuels. Check out www.peakoil.com and www.peakoil.net and make up your own mind.

If the peak oil theorists are wrong we will be left with a better world to live in. If they are right we will find out soon enough and the end of the age of oil will also be the end of the age of economics.

Conserve, cut back, recycle.
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