[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause someone on peak oil forums asked if my experience was widespread, I visited a Wal-Mart in Delaware today early Saturday on the 2nd of the month.



I spent some money, and walked through the entire store. I took over 50 pictures and placed them in an album. You can see them all in a slide show at http://s7.photobucket.com/albums/y297/sea-ya/walmart52/?albumview=slideshow.

I understand Saturday is a big shopping day, and that the 2nd of the month is the day before Federal government checks arrive by direct deposit. But Wal-Mart also knows this and their J I T distribution system does also.

[JJ]

got to wondering, so asked my son if he knew the percentage of people using Texas Star cards (its a big portion of our sales). He said they don't know. I imagine its a violation of civil rights or something.

[drew]

I just read the last 3 pages about 'shortages', so I'll add my observations. I live in southern Ontario, and I've seen nothing off the stuff people are describing. The shelves are full, very full every time I shop.

Hardware/HomeDepot/CanadianTire stores do seem to be way less busy than last year but there are no shortages. Tons of stuff is on sale, because people aren't buying. Grocery stores on the other hand haven't lowered their prices one bit.

There are NO SHORTAGES of anything really. We are paying about 25% more for fresh produce and some dairy that's all. Meat prices go up and down like a yoyo for chicken and pork, and remain relatively high for beef.

YOY I'd guess food is somewhere around 5 to 7% higher than last year. That does suck, doesn't it, especially since my employer rolled our wages back by 6% two months ago.

Drew

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'I') just read the last 3 pages about 'shortages', so I'll add my observations. I live in southern Ontario, and I've seen nothing off the stuff people are describing. The shelves are full, very full every time I shop.

Hardware/HomeDepot/CanadianTire stores do seem to be way less busy than last year but there are no shortages. Tons of stuff is on sale, because people aren't buying. Grocery stores on the other hand haven't lowered their prices one bit.

There are NO SHORTAGES of anything really. We are paying about 25% more for fresh produce and some dairy that's all. Meat prices go up and down like a yoyo for chicken and pork, and remain relatively high for beef.

YOY I'd guess food is somewhere around 5 to 7% higher than last year. That does suck, doesn't it, especially since my employer rolled our wages back by 6% two months ago.

Drew

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')nice photo show. Thats what our grocery store looks like at the end of each day, *gutted*. What the public doesn't realize (but may soon) is that we are feeding 10,000 people a day. Most people that come in the store just see a few people, they don't realize the scale. The first and the fifteenth are very, very busy times of the month as thats when the Texas Star cards activate (free welfare food) and our sales double and triple. I'm always amazed at all the prepackaged frozen sh%t people on welfare buy (frozen pizza, etc.) We are just a small town of 5,000 (but the only grocery store for 15 miles to the next town). When the Texas Star cards turn off, it's gonna be madness. I liken it to feeding pigs. You dump the trays of produce on the shelf, then watch the customers fight over the *best* stuff for themselves. The deli even makes an announcement and rings a cow bell every time they bring out fresh bread. Talk about Pavlovs' dogs..

[the48thronin]

Oh by the way I am not saying distribution has failed, BUT that JIT is failing of course once the oscillations in sales resulting from JIT failure start bto work.... HMMM maybe WOLF for real then...

How many auto plants just shut down for the next 2 months again ( they just reopened from Christmas shut down a month ago...)

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'O')h by the way I am not saying distribution has failed, BUT that JIT is failing of course once the oscillations in sales resulting from JIT failure start bto work.... HMMM maybe WOLF for real then...

How many auto plants just shut down for the next 2 months again ( they just reopened from Christmas shut down a month ago...)

[ki11ercane]

Up here in Winterpeg I don't see any of the shortages described yet. Slobeys, China Mart, Cambodian Tire, Hate Depot, Rowna, etc. all seem to be stacked and for the most part BUSY. However since I am a prepper I go into these stores as little as possible, and only to stock up when they have sales going on. Even here in Urbaniteville we store produce (apples, etc.) for 3 months and we grow all our own veges during the spring/summer. For everything else (canned goods, juice, etc.) we store for up to 12 months. For a family of 3 that saves us around $3000.00 per yer on food alone. Lots of extra money for bullets and preps.

For my business, JIT failed years ago. When product is ordered once for the season, I'll be lucky to see it again for a whole year. Domestically we have switched to train from truck. It's 2.5 times longer but 50% cheaper. And since we have been on the cheap for years, we can afford to stretch inventory a little longer to save on freight.

Maybe since Canada is fairing better than the rest of the world, we need another 18-24 months to see the tsunami in our rear view mirrors.

[MD]

Grocery stores here in Ohio are -jammed- with product. End caps and raceways full of so much stuff you can hardly navigate around the store.

[jdmartin]

I can see the OP's point irrespective of what store shelves look like right now. I didn't take this thread to mean that we're going to be eating grubs in a couple of months; rather, that the intricate system that's been put together to keep instant product flowing instantly all the time is coming apart thanks to continual shocks to the system ($5 diesel, crashing economy, etc). That makes perfect sense to me because economies are intricate animals that don't respond well to shock waves - mostly because the participants, people, are by nature self-interested first and often respond in ways that are contrary to their long-term self interest but make perfect rational sense in the short term (ie saving money in a recession/depression).

From my own viewpoint I haven't noticed much in the way of shortages on shelves, though some of the bigger stores seem to have a lot more room in the aisles these days - whether that's from striving for a better image or not enough product I have no idea. However, I have noticed that things that are not in stock, or in stock in sufficient amounts, are taking me a lot longer to get. Yesterday I went to a big plant nursery to buy some ground cover. In the past if there wasn't enough, they'd put in an order for you and it would be on the next truck in a few days. Yesterday they told me that if there wasn't enough I'd have to place an order and wait until there was enough product coming in to include that order, which could take days or weeks, and that in any case I probably couldnt get anything on special order after June, which is when they severely curtail ordering plants. My wife works in custom retail and their suppliers have, first of all nearly all gone out of business, and secondly the two that are left will not make any special deliveries at all, not even with a surcharge.

This may all have the effect of bringing back some local manufacturing, though, which isn't a bad thing.

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

I remember seeing Wal-Mart look like that years ago at certain times. It looked like a tornado went through.

I used to work for a large corporation that was very familiar with Wal-Mart's business model. WM is the king of JIT-type operational efficiency. I think what we are seeing is WM's effort to reduce spoilage and somehow keep costs as low as possible.

I have not noticed any differences at the local grocery stores here in my town. Ditto for mass retailers. Still plenty of Chinese bric-a-brac to be had.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '
')


But the JIT system has nothing to do with the auto plants shutting down again, In fact they have to much stock sitting at dealer ships around the country because of low sales.

If I was not so busy with my business I would post pics of store shelves here [Vegas] and in Cali that I might be going soon, our stores are full and have asked some family members in other states and they see no problems, Heard no local or national news report of any shortages, only here.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'I') did get a Starbucks Caramel Machioto from the in store Starbucks, the dog food I needed, and had a conversation with some of the stock clerks who were restocking the shelves with the days shipment that had arrived at 7 am.. ( it was noon). They were all commenting on the lack of things to replace what was sold out and the adjustments they were making to displays to cover empty shelves with something that was in stock now.

[the48thronin]

Today I am part of the destruction of JIT as it was yesterday. And part of one company's response to vacillations in shipping costs.


One change that is happening I see intimately because I am helping with it.

A supplier who was making parts for the aircraft building industry has started closing a plant located in one location, and dividing it into smaller plants located at the perimeter of it's clients.

Their costs will go up as a non centralized production line model is much less efficient than one centralized plant, BUT like the paint bucket manufacturers did 15 years ago, this component manufacturer will manufacture just one brick wall away from the customer eliminating transportation and the resultant inventory in motion.

I talked to the engineers of the project while the riggers were dis-assembling and loading my trailer. parts of an assembly line. They plan on increasing each locations available raw materials and component inventory from 24 hours to 40 hours.

They will have much increased inventory of raw materials on hand as an aggregate total of all locations, with resultant increased costs. BUT the component they make has a manufacture to form to use and permanently mount time limit as part of it's inherent properties.

The elimination of losses caused by too long in transit coupled with the losses from manufactured but not used due to breakdown in JIT time line due to multiple causes from failure of another component to arrive on time to start/stop of assembly caused by labor or sales drops or even weather related power outages will they think balance the increased inventory. ( short version manufacture local has arrived for some.)

They will also of course shift all shipping costs and headaches to their suppliers once they finish moving all the assembly lines out to their customers. A fleet of fork lifts will replace the fleet of trucks they are selling off as no longer needed.

[the48thronin]

walmart Topeka ks

I didn't bother to hang up on my wife ( we were chatting on the phone) but I could have taken as many pictures at 9 pm last night of empty shelves, and empty meat counters and empty produce bins as i wanted... they were everywhere in the store.

Dressing was not keeping up although they were trying.

New areas where significant dressing and vacancies were appearing canned tomato pastes, canned veggies, and canned meats...HMMMMMM

I will try to visit a couple of other food stores on my way to gulfport ms this weekend.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'w')almart Topeka ks

I didn't bother to hang up on my wife ( we were chatting on the phone) but I could have taken as many pictures at 9 pm last night of empty shelves, and empty meat counters and empty produce bins as i wanted... they were everywhere in the store.

[RedStateGreen]

Lots of empty spots in the shelves, produce section of the local health food store. Except the produce from Mexico, it was untouched. Got a good deal on organic bananas from Mexico.

[Alaska]

I am in the Atlanta area. I have been trying to find a name brand over the counter medicine for the last 2 weeks. Have tried 3 different stores so far. The shelves where these items are usually found are completely empty. I will check at Walmart tomorrow.

[drew]

Just a little comment about the auto industry and JIT. I doubt that any manufacturer runs their shops so tight that parts are still 200 miles away and needed on the same shift.

I deliver to one of the Japanese manufacturers daily and can tell you first hand that parts usually sit in our yard for a day before they are needed at the plant. Our yard is a block away. Tier one stuff like dashboards, seats, windows etc. have multiple shuttles direct from the supplier to the factory. None of these suppliers is more than an hour away.

Of course when the suppliers go tits up GM et al will need to get new suppliers pronto, won't they?

Drew