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Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby TWilliam » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 12:00:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'A')nd malls, what are those? (j/k) Haven't really cared for those overpriced collections of silly clothes shops in quite some time....LOL.

I am so looking forward to the end of malls (we have a 13 yo daughter). Or rather, to their conversion to homeless housing... :-D
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby OutOfGas » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 12:20:30

I still work in manufacturing. We have reduced the amount of raw materials and finished goods we keep in stock to reduce costs.
We frequently run out of raw materials now.

Our customers are also ordering smaller amounts and are going to LTL shipping. Customers are also running of of product more often.

JIT will be doomed with the next oil price spike and resultant increase in shipping costs. Look for local manufacturing to increase in the comming years.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby the48thronin » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 23:51:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutOfGas', 'I') still work in manufacturing. We have reduced the amount of raw materials and finished goods we keep in stock to reduce costs.
We frequently run out of raw materials now.

Our customers are also ordering smaller amounts and are going to LTL shipping. Customers are also running of of product more often.

JIT will be doomed with the next oil price spike and resultant increase in shipping costs. Look for local manufacturing to increase in the comming years.



Shipping costs have not increased... Not to the actual providers of the shipping anyway. Ships are now willing to carry containers for pennies on the dollar compared to last year this time. Truck freight is paying about 70 percent what it paid last year. Even rail road rates are down. All of these are being mashed flat by the realities of diminished utilization.

The J I T system is going to break because in these chaotic conditions no one will be able to keep trucks, ships, or even railroads available long. The ship owners, truck owners, and even the railroads that just last year were predicting a collapse due to over utilization are facing a crisis as they fight for market share in a shrinking market and are buffeted by demanded lower rates.

The dc yards will be full of trailers, ( some empty, some parked as extra storage like the containers at the back of the store). BUT J I T requires everyone to be in time like a well run group of dancers in a chorus line.

Your customers and your company are breaking the rhythm. You are starting to require a stop and go effort from your suppliers, and giving your customers stop and go service. You no longer can support a transportation system that runs on a tight schedule.

You are abandoning the J I T trucking model to LTL just when LTL is going down also. ( you might want to check those LTL companies freight volumes some of which are DOWN 78%). The survival of the LTL mega fleets is almost impossible to have any faith in.

My own specialty is in as bad a situation as most trucking. Many of my customers are like your company no longer selling enough product to fill a trailer, but fortunately for me, they cannot for security and "time definite" and service reasons try LTL carriers, so instead they try to beat down the rate because sometimes their orders fill less than 8 feet in a 53 ft trailer. The "time definite" and security concerns defeats any attempt by them to use LTL just as it defeats any attempt by me to make any LTL adjustments to their rates.

The discussion here is of J I T failing. This does not mean that with adjustment to a non JIT system of procurement that supplies cannot be had at all, IT does mean that some disruption in the availability will happen or we will go back to local or warehoused supply meaning an increase rather than further decrease in supply on hand.

The system devised to make production on an island more profitable will not stand on this continent without the luxury of transport on demand and on schedule.. That is the basis for my statement that JIT is coming apart.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby FishAreBest » Thu 23 Apr 2009, 07:20:14

My nearest large supermarket (Tesco) has just put up signs everywhere saying "maximum 10 of any item per customer - to make sure there's enough for everyone".
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby Jotapay » Thu 23 Apr 2009, 11:42:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FishAreBest', 'M')y nearest large supermarket (Tesco) has just put up signs everywhere saying "maximum 10 of any item per customer - to make sure there's enough for everyone".


Wow, where is this?
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 23 Apr 2009, 11:56:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FishAreBest', 'M')y nearest large supermarket (Tesco) has just put up signs everywhere saying "maximum 10 of any item per customer - to make sure there's enough for everyone".


Wow, where is this?


Tesco owns stores in the US but they go by a different name. I think the Tesco name is only used in the UK but perhaps in the EU also?
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby Iaato » Thu 23 Apr 2009, 13:17:00

Here's the theoretical basis for this. As energy inputs decline, the system shifts into a mode that rewards persistence, diversity, flexibility, redundancy, decentralization, collaboration, and, did I say, redundancy?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n ecology, resilience has been defined in two competing fashions that emphasize two different aspects of stability. The consequences of those different aspects for ecological systems were first emphasized by the Canadian ecologist C. S. Holling in order to draw attention to tradeoffs between efficiency on the one hand and persistence on the other, or between constancy and change, or between predictability and unpredictability. It is defined by the Resilience Alliance as "the capacity of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively different state that is controlled by a different set of processes. A resilient ecosystem can withstand shocks and rebuild itself when necessary. Resilience in social systems has the added capacity of humans to anticipate and plan for the future." Resilence is conferred in human and ecological systems by adaptive capacity.


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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby Iaato » Thu 23 Apr 2009, 13:19:34

Oh, and while we're discussing resiliency, here's a neat scale to measure your own:
http://mailer.fsu.edu/~cfigley/Tests/documents/ER89.pdf

I think I scored a 54.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby shortonoil » Thu 23 Apr 2009, 20:11:55

Iaato quoted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esilience in social systems has the added capacity of humans to anticipate and plan for the future.


Yea, like we’ve seen much of that lately?

the48thronin I must agree with your premise that JIT is going to end in the near future. Besides the reasons given by your excellent explanation and description of the industry there is one other factor that will bear heavily in the short term. Most of the transportation industry is composed of fairly small firms, and small firms are now almost completely locked out of the credit market.

Very few companies today can last for long without at least some access to credit. No firm has enough cash to meet all contingencies. The industry will fail piece by piece until there will not be enough functioning participates to keep a JIT system operating. Although I would hesitate to guess what percentage would bring about failure, I doubt that it is very high.

Once the JIT system is gone, most of our modern social system will not be able to function. Everything from a rarely stocked part for a car, to a vile of rarely used, but life saving medicine will disappear. Lack of a commutator brush for a 30,000 hp motor at an electric plant could bring an entire city down. They depend on very rapid transportation to provide many parts for just such situations.

The JIT system is far more important that just providing Fruit Loops to the breakfast table. It has become essential to keeping our entire modern civilization running. We will find life extremely difficult to navigate without it!




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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby FishAreBest » Fri 24 Apr 2009, 07:33:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FishAreBest', 'M')y nearest large supermarket (Tesco) has just put up signs everywhere saying "maximum 10 of any item per customer - to make sure there's enough for everyone".


Wow, where is this?


UK, about 50 miles / 80km NW of London, a town of 300,000 people.

For the last 3 months, the stock levels in this store, and also in my local supermarket (small supermarket in a 1 supermarket town) have been low/erratic for all fresh/chilled produce.

I've used Ocado (an internet/home-delivery supermarket service) for several years. Until this year, they never had any stock issues. This year, I'm noticing various things being unavailable.

No major problem with non-food, alcohol, frozen, long-life, etc., but for anything fresh, you'd be lucky to find 10 items on the shelves.

Lots of things go out of stock for a week or two and we've stopped being surprised to find the bread shelves completely empty. etc.

A few years ago, the tanker-drivers in the UK went on strike for a week, and within a couple of days, the supermarket shelves were bare. Until that point, I was a "JIT" shopper. Discovering that you have nothing for dinner, and that the shops are empty was a sobering experience. Since then, I like to keep my kitchen cupboards a little more full ;-)
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby VMarcHart » Fri 24 Apr 2009, 08:44:42

I went to my local big store last night and couldn't find blueberries and the 16-count pizza rolls package. I nearly killed the store manager. Just kidding. Shelves looked normal to me.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby vision-master » Fri 24 Apr 2009, 09:09:49

Went to one of the largest motorcycle dealers in the Twin Cities yersterday to get some oil and filter for the bike. They only had 2 quarts of Amsoil left. WTF? This is peak season around here. Also I noticed in the showroom, many models were not on display. Unusal to say the least.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby JJ » Fri 24 Apr 2009, 13:56:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') went to my local big store last night and couldn't find blueberries and the 16-count pizza rolls package. I nearly killed the store manager. Just kidding. Shelves looked normal to me.


I have someone freak out on a daily basis because we don't have something they want. Yesterday a lady ORDERED me to get Maria's creamy chipotle dressing because she doesn't want to have to drive to Stevenville (about 100 miles north) to get it. (NOT kidding)

we've got a long way down to go...
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby JJ » Fri 24 Apr 2009, 16:43:55

it gets better...I went up to the store to get a loaf of bread (I'm off today) and the customer in front of me was tearing up the cashier because we didn't have her brand of herb dressing. WHAT IS GOING ON? I mean she was going nuts....
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby VMarcHart » Fri 24 Apr 2009, 17:16:00

Hi, JJ.

There lies the problem. We've grown accustomed to the lives of emperors, that God forbid we don't have someone wiping our butts.

Be good,

Marc.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby bodigami » Fri 01 May 2009, 23:54:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'M')y trucking broker buddy said those empty contaner ships waiting for goods is costing the operators $75,000 day waiting.

Also, he say's the wheels are falling off........


$75,000 for how many container ships?
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby bodigami » Sat 02 May 2009, 01:03:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'H')i, JJ.

There lies the problem. We've grown accustomed to the lives of emperors, that God forbid we don't have someone wiping our butts.

Be good,

Marc.


and people want more! ...this era should be named the era of the spoiled.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby VMarcHart » Sat 02 May 2009, 08:07:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bodigami', '.')..this era should be named the era of the spoiled.
Catton uses the term Age of Exuberance.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Postby the48thronin » Sat 02 May 2009, 22:18:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause someone on peak oil forums asked if my experience was widespread, I visited a Wal-Mart in Delaware today early Saturday on the 2nd of the month.



I spent some money, and walked through the entire store. I took over 50 pictures and placed them in an album. You can see them all in a slide show at http://s7.photobucket.com/albums/y297/sea-ya/walmart52/?albumview=slideshow.

I understand Saturday is a big shopping day, and that the 2nd of the month is the day before Federal government checks arrive by direct deposit. But Wal-Mart also knows this and their J I T distribution system does also.


from http://marystruck.com/blog2/?p=243
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