[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have said for some time that J I T Distribution would begin to fail in todays depressed economy. Today I went grocery shopping and saw signs I am right.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have said for some time that J I T Distribution would begin to fail in todays depressed economy. Today I went grocery shopping and saw signs I am right.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have said for some time that J I T Distribution would begin to fail in todays depressed economy. Today I went grocery shopping and saw signs I am right.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')
Your a canary for sure. The last survivor in the food chain is a farmer in Iowa. Corn in his east field wheat in the West forty. One barn full of hogs and the other full of chickens. Methane gas of the manure lagoon and he is good to go come war or melting ice caps. You on the other hand are one shipload away from starvation as there isn't enough moose and caribou in Sharaland to feed a quarter of the population. Sorry.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have said for some time that J I T Distribution would begin to fail in todays depressed economy. Today I went grocery shopping and saw signs I am right.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')nteresting, but is it an isolated event, or a documented spread-out pattern?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '
')RE may think his ship born JIT is safer than a land bridge JIT, but the missing link is shipping, and that missing link is growing.

[timmac]

This is really funny, here in Vegas we are not having these problems and we are as far away from farm fields as you can get, our grocery stores are full of food and produce, lots of food to be had 24/7 every where and at the buffets, I don't see this system coming apart any time soon, don't worry folks food will still be there tomorrow, next month and next year..

Its almost summer time and the OP said this system will be broke dick by summer, however still no problems here and every thing can still be had 24/7...

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'T')his is really funny, here in Vegas we are not having these problems and we are as far away from farm fields as you can get, our grocery stores are full of food and produce, lots of food to be had 24/7 every where and at the buffets, I don't see this system coming apart any time soon, don't worry folks food will still be there tomorrow, next month and next year..

Its almost summer time and the OP said this system will be broke dick by summer, however still no problems here and every thing can still be had 24/7...

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')nteresting, but is it an isolated event, or a documented spread-out pattern?

[alokin]

What first runs out, at least here in Australia is always but always the Home brand. And I really do not like to pay more for a products which is the same in a fancy packet.
Oats are oats, unless you buy organic.

[FloridaGirl]

I passed a Walmart distribution center a couple of weeks ago and was struck by how much fuller the parking lot was with semi-trailers than I had ever noticed before. I passed by it again tonight and it was still just as full.

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'T')his is really funny, here in Vegas we are not having these problems and we are as far away from farm fields as you can get, our grocery stores are full of food and produce, lots of food to be had 24/7 every where and at the buffets, I don't see this system coming apart any time soon, don't worry folks food will still be there tomorrow, next month and next year..

Its almost summer time and the OP said this system will be broke dick by summer, however still no problems here and every thing can still be had 24/7...

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'F')rom Progressive Railroad


3/24/2009 Intermodal
New York/New Jersey port authority's cargo volumes flat-line in '08

For the first time in 15 years, annual cargo volume remained flat at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ).

In 2008, the authority handled 5.26 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) compared with 5.3 million TEUs in 2007. PANYNJ officials expect volumes to decrease throughout 2009 as "the full effect of the economic downturn is realized."

However, the authority expects cargo growth at the port over the long term and is making investments to expand or upgrade ExpressRail and other infrastructure.

For more 2008 port statistics, as well as details on how the authority is working to accommodate future growth, follow this link.

http://www.panynj.gov/AboutthePortAutho ... hp?id=1212

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I went out and looked for signs like you said and here (in western Canada) I don't really see signs as drastic as you report.

However, I did notice that the shelves aren't stocked as deeply as they used to be of lots of canned and tinned food. As well, while the shelves weren't as bare as your pictures, they don't have heaps of produce lately either. That will probably change as this region produces lots of food and that might come into some stores.

The Safeway here though (which predominantly deals in imported food) has prices going up. I asked the produce guy if I could buy a 50 lb box of potatoes (since that is apparently how it comes in) and if I could get a deal on it. He said no. I could buy one but there would be no deal so it would still cost me 1.09 a lb. for 50 lbs which is 54.50 for 50 lbs. I then went to a cheaper store and found 25 lbs for 7.99.

I also found that bread at the cheaper store was more expensive at almost 4.00 a loaf, when at the Safeway (they have their own bakery) bread is about 2.50 (which went up a good .60-.70$ from when the price of gas went up) but the price of the bread has not come back down, even though they bake this here (though likely from an imported mix).

[Newfie]

I too fail to see signs of impending doom when I go out the stores.

Yet, if the numbers are to be believed something is happening.

http://www.progressiverailroading.com/p ... p?id=20143

Note this is a cumulative tally so it is less reactive as the year goes on. Maybe someone with more time could sit down and crunch the raw numbers to get a more meaningful analysis.

None-the-less, it seems to indicate that a whole lot of stuff is NOT being moved, and sooner or later that has to become visible on the store shelves. Although I admit I thought we would have seen it by now.

The one thing I do see is is that the car lots at rail heads and ship yards are nearly empty and that explains at least some of the drop off in rail shipping.

[IslandCrow]

It is not the end of JIT, but it puts it under a lot of strain. So I will guess that there will be empty space on some shelves, but not a collapse just yet:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he prospects for world trade are even gloomier, with the IMF now forecasting world trade volumes to decline by 11% in 2009, and barely grow at all in 2010.

[TWilliam]

Sometimes you really have to be paying attention to notice the signs of shortage. If you have a particularly savvy store manager, there are any number of things that can be done to minimize visible indications of lower inventory. A little more spacing between racks (because some have been removed). Shallower shelving in the aisles. Larger quantities of any single item coupled with less variety. Fewer tiers. False bottoms in open-top refrigerators, produce racks and such. 'Spreading' rather than 'stacking' of shelved items. Fewer impulse purchase displays in aisles, or alternatively more of a single impulse item.

I've noted all of these little 'tricks of the trade' in local stores over the last several months, but I doubt many people notice them if they're not looking for them.

[vision-master]

Aldi's food stock is down.

Yeah, they have ways of making things look normal.

The average consumer wouldn't notice tho.

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'S')ometimes you really have to be paying attention to notice the signs of shortage. If you have a particularly savvy store manager, there are any number of things that can be done to minimize visible indications of lower inventory. A little more spacing between racks (because some have been removed). Shallower shelving in the aisles. Larger quantities of any single item coupled with less variety. Fewer tiers. False bottoms in open-top refrigerators, produce racks and such. 'Spreading' rather than 'stacking' of shelved items. Fewer impulse purchase displays in aisles, or alternatively more of a single impulse item.

I've noted all of these little 'tricks of the trade' in local stores over the last several months, but I doubt many people notice them if they're not looking for them.