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Middle ground between believers & deniers

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Bytesmiths » Tue 21 Apr 2009, 18:55:33

Okay! Finally, some trustworthy data showing that affluence and economic growth is the biggest correlant to happiness! And from a totally unbiased source -- the World Bank! :-)

Check out Naomi Klein's book "Shock Doctrine" to learn how the World Bank nefariously holds poor countries in bondage through crushing debt. And remember, "correlation is not causation." One could just as easily say that the World Bank's efforts are directly responsible for making life in poor countries so unhappy, especially when one looks at the high happiness levels of certain countries, like Bhutan, that have rejected World Bank and IMF overtures.

Please forgive me for not having the time today to do a point-by-point refutation, except to say that, in general, I don't trust the World Bank to produce data that does anything but back their position -- a pattern Eduard DeBono calls "ludecy."

I much prefer the stats from NationMaster.com, which are generally from peer-reviewed sources, unlike those of the World Bank.

For example, NationMaster's measure of happiness paints a very different picture from the World Bank's outlook. By their mesure, the US is at #13, just behind that paragon of affluence, The Phillipenes, and well behind those well-known fortresses of "economic freedom," Sweden and Denmark (sharing second place), each with taxes at about 50%.

Even more revealing is the percentage of people who claim to be "very happy." The US is #7, well behind places known for their affluence, such as Nigeria and Ireland, and again, Phillippines. Hmmm... affluence and happiness seem to be somewhat randomly correlated!

That's the neat thing about charts and statistics: you can prove anything you want, including that using up the earth makes people happy, according to the organization who is perhaps most associated with using up the earth. Even if that were true (which I do not accept as given), aren't we here on this website to try to do something about it?

Thank goodness that one can find statistics that "prove" otherwise!

Or, assuming we're on this website because we do think at least one critical resource (oil) is soon to decline, are we content to live our lives in the most affluent way possible -- in order to enhance our own happiness -- therefore guaranteeing less affluence (and happiness) for generations to come?
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Tyler_JC » Tue 21 Apr 2009, 19:15:52

Greater affluence beyond a certain point doesn't add to happiness. The first chart shows that one nicely. The marginal value of that last dollar for a millionaire is minimal.

Tiny homogeneous countries are bound to be happier than larger diverse countries. If everyone is just like you, what's to complain about? There's also the question of expectations. Americans expect to be happier in the future, Danes don't. This leads to Americans taking more risks to achieve success while Danes are content to just chug along.

There appear to be some poor, happy countries. Perhaps this is a result of the religious fervor of the population (Nigeria) or the expulsion of unhappy people (Venezuela).

But there are no rich, unhappy countries.

As oil depletes and the world becomes less affluent, the places that experience the largest drops in wealth will likely see the greatest drop in happiness. Places that were always poor and will stay poor won't see much of a change unless their living conditions drop below subsistence.

Regardless, I'll drop out of this debate. Statistics can be used to prove anything.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Blacksmith » Tue 21 Apr 2009, 19:53:50

Like the old saying goes "Money can't buy happiness, but it sure helps".

By analogy, immigrant freeloaders must be happy.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Bytesmiths » Tue 21 Apr 2009, 20:25:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blacksmith', '.').. immigrant freeloaders must be happy.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby deMolay » Tue 21 Apr 2009, 20:48:20

What do you mean Blacksmith about the immigrant?.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Blacksmith » Tue 21 Apr 2009, 22:33:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'W')hat do you mean Blacksmith about the immigrant?.


Last year when I was in our nations capital I meet an Arab taxi driver. This man had come to Canada twenty years ago and had worked 18 hours a day 6 days a week without a vacation for the betterment of his family. His daughter and my daughter were admitted to the Upper Canada Bar at the same time. I look at him and numerous others like him and I compare them to freeloaders from south of the border and then I ask, who would you prefer to have immigrate to this country?
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Keith_McClary » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 00:13:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd yet there appears to be a relatively strong correlation between happiness and affluence.

Image

You might be an exception to the this trend but most people like having stuff.

More importantly, people like having the freedom to do what they want with what they earn. That matters more than anything. More freedom leads to more happiness and less freedom to less happiness.
The unhappiest places seem to be those that were "liberated" from the former Soviet Union (a generation ago).

Glib explanation please.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 01:05:22

The former states of the USSR saw a huge decline in their standard of living during the 1990s leading to a crash in the quality of life for the people in that region.

When the economies of countries like Poland and Latvia picked up, their people became happier while the still-poor Bulgarians and Ukrainians remain miserable.

Are there people arguing that a reduced standard of living doesn't reduce the self reported happiness of a population in the short term?

Image

Japan entered a lost decade in the 1990s. Unemployment soared, so did male suicides.

A declining standard of living makes more people unhappy, you can't argue against that.

If a country is poor but stable, the people can achieve a relatively high level of reported satisfaction but only if the peoples' expectations remain low. As soon as the peoples expectations rise, the nation must deliver on those expectations or face a public backlash (in the form of revolution, electoral defeat, general unhappiness, whatever).
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Bytesmiths » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 02:24:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A') declining standard of living makes more people unhappy, you can't argue against that.
I wouldn't even try to argue against that.

What I argue over is the meaning of "standard of living."

The first set of charts imply "standard of living" has to do with with cash income in fiat currency. Others seem to equate it to neo-liberal free-market capitalism, or at least the freedom to wield financial resources in socially inappropriate ways.

I would be more open to such arguments if alternatives to fiat currency measures, such as the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) were cited, rather than figures from bankers and US covert agencies.

Ideally, we're looking at Maslow's Hierarchy, no? People need shelter, and clean, safe water and nutritious food. They need security. They need to love and be loved. They need self-esteem and respect. They need control over their ethics and creativity. I don't see "money" in that list, although it does seem to be correlated in some cases, and yet strangely not, in others.

Correlation is not causation! Given that Nigeria and the Phillippines have higher happiness levels than the US (by at least one source, cited above), shouldn't we be curious? Shouldn't we "enlightened" folk who "get" Peak Oil, want to understand how some people who are less on the energy treadmill than we are, still manage to be happy? Isn't it a worthy goal, to figure out why, and then to try to map that onto our energy-poor future?

Because if we continue to insist that money makes people happy, then we're just going to fight over the last drop of oil, rather than finding coping strategies that preserve much of what we cherish about civilization, while letting go of those that are not essential to our happiness and well-being.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby vision-master » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 08:56:54

I had a dream the other night. This high-level deity, kind of like the pope told me, 'Chasing after materialism will only make you unhappy, keep following your spritual path.'

The happiest I ever was is when I lived out of my van as a ski bum. :roll:
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Byron100 » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 09:55:39

Looking at this through the prism of peak oil, I think we need to accept that living standards are going to go down no matter what. It doesn't matter how rich the US is, or what kind of political system we may have in place, our standard of living will decrease from here on on out, probably for a century or more (or when the big die-off occurs, at which point none of this will matter much...LOL).

So, the question to ask, how to manage this perpetual decline in the standard of living without destroying the fabric of society? Exactly how does one manage a grinding contraction of the economy for year after year, decade after decade, for whole generations to come? How will our leaders manage a ever-increasing surplus of labor, the millions upon millions of hands that will be idled in the years to come, coupled with the certainty of ever-decreasing wages for those who are lucky enough to find work? How will a debt-based economy even function in a world of ever-declining energy, where it's dammed near impossible to pay back loans of any sort, due to to the irreversible decline in economic output?

That, my friends, is what we're faced with. Political systems will matter little in such a world, as hardship will be visited upon all of us in the years to come. So, might it be a smart idea to figure out a way to redistribute what wealth currently exists so that the population can at least survive?

Face it, there is a staggering amount of wealth that still exists in the United States, and even more so in Canada. Land, gold, silver, timber, existing housing stock, metals, coal, hydro, etc. Not to mention the nearly infinite amount of funds that the millionaires and billionaires still have stashed away in overstuffed bank accounts that's locked away from the rest of us. Might it be a smart idea to tap into that vast reserve of inherent wealth so that the rest of us can at least have food, shelter and a bit to live on? There's little question new wealth can be created through the sweat of the brow, as the Incredible Shrinking Economy will surely prohibit that. Labor (wage-slave labor, that is) is the T-Rex of our era, its great roar about to be silenced forever. And there is NOTHING that can be done to reverse this, no matter how hard we try.

As much as I love my liberty and the right to chose my own path, I am also faced with the hard reality that faces us. So, shouldn't our energies and attention be focused on how to manage this decline in the most graceful way possible as opposed to being faced with the certain prospect of massive gun battles on the streets as the starving masses lash out in pure desperation at those who still have "the goods"?

To me, the answer is a simple one. Too bad so many of you out there don't see the obvious...
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby vision-master » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 10:02:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s much as I love my liberty and the right to chose my own path, I am also faced with the hard reality that faces us. So, shouldn't our energies and attention be focused on how to manage this decline in the most graceful way possible as opposed to be faced with the certain prospect of massive gun battles on the streets as the starving masses lash out in pure desperation at those who still have "the goods"?

To me, the answer is a simple one. Too bad so many of you out there don't see the obvious...


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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Bytesmiths » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 13:37:50

Byron100, I'm not quite as pessimistic as you are:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '.').. living standards are going to go down no matter what.
Again, by whose definition? The fact that Nigeria and Phillippines have happiness levels nearly that of countries with 100 times as much per capita income means your "standard of living" need not be locked to economic activity, nor even energy availability. That's our challenge!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow will our leaders manage a ever-increasing surplus of labor, the millions upon millions of hands that will be idled in the years to come... There's little question new wealth can be created through the sweat of the brow, as the Incredible Shrinking Economy will surely prohibit that. Labor (wage-slave labor, that is) is the T-Rex of our era, its great roar about to be silenced forever.
I'm much more sanguine about labour.

With the slow removal of "fossil fuel labour," the slack will be taken up with human and animal labour. The question is: will it be done by slaves or indentured servants, or is there another path, a different way for people to obtain most of Maslow's needs, without the help of fossil energy?

In our experiment, I see a glimmer of hope. We have increasing numbers of people willing to work as apprentices and interns. Is this another form of "slave labour?" No, they can always leave. It may evolve to be closer to indentured servitude, as communes, ecovillages, and tribes may be willing to grant their form of "citizenship" to those who come and work enthusiastically.

So yea, there's social problems and organizational problems and ownership problems and sovereignty problems to work out. But labour? There will always be stuff for strong, willing hands to do.

Perhaps the biggest problem will be managing expectations. But I suspect more and more people will be willing to work with their muscles for shelter, food, love, respect, and a reasonable amount of freedom to be creative. We don't need cheap bits of plastic from China to attain self-actualization.

Another big problem is caring for the marginal, the old, the sick, the lame. I'm hoping there will be enough extra labour available that the needs of the marginal can be at least partially met. But there may come a time when those who cannot care for themselves voluntarily go out into the cold for the sake of their community, or a time when mis-formed babies are ceremoniously removed from the care-pool at birth.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby odegaard » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 14:07:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '.')..
Face it, there is a staggering amount of wealth that still exists in the United States, and even more so in Canada. Land, gold, silver, timber, existing housing stock, metals, coal, hydro, etc. Not to mention the nearly infinite amount of funds that the millionaires and billionaires still have stashed away in overstuffed bank accounts that's locked away from the rest of us. Might it be a smart idea to tap into that vast reserve of inherent wealth so that the rest of us can at least have food, shelter and a bit to live on?...
*blink blink*
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Byron100 » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 14:41:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'A')gain, by whose definition? The fact that Nigeria and Phillippines have happiness levels nearly that of countries with 100 times as much per capita income means your "standard of living" need not be locked to economic activity, nor even energy availability. That's our challenge!


While I do see your viewpoint as perfectly valid, I fear the consequences of going from a high-consumption economy to a lower one, as there's no workable solution (as of yet) for managing an extended decline in GDP, especially over long time periods. Much like a shark must swim just to live, our modern economy must grow in order to function. That's the challenge that we're faced with, and it's a mighty big one!

Now, if we're able to get away from the idea of debt = money, then we might be getting somewhere with this. With no new debt being issued into the economy, there would be no need to produce "more" in order to pay interest on debt, from the level of the federal government down to the consumer. Anyone that can tell me how this can be done, I'd love to hear it. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith the slow removal of "fossil fuel labour," the slack will be taken up with human and animal labour. The question is: will it be done by slaves or indentured servants, or is there another path, a different way for people to obtain most of Maslow's needs, without the help of fossil energy?

In our experiment, I see a glimmer of hope. We have increasing numbers of people willing to work as apprentices and interns. Is this another form of "slave labour?" No, they can always leave. It may evolve to be closer to indentured servitude, as communes, ecovillages, and tribes may be willing to grant their form of "citizenship" to those who come and work enthusiastically.

So yea, there's social problems and organizational problems and ownership problems and sovereignty problems to work out. But labour? There will always be stuff for strong, willing hands to do.


This is where I get my pessimism from, as I feel that the US is dominated by the concept of workers being disposable when no longer needed as opposed to being treated as valued members of the community. In order to move away from our current paradigm, the very concept of a "job" is going to have to be completely reevaluated. I just have a hard time believing that there will be a way to move the bulk of the population away from office / service / manufacturing occupations to small-scale agriculture, trades and simple self-sufficiency such as you have done without severe difficulty and/or massive social upheaval. Granted, you being in Canada does help, as your government is apparently supports people who voluntary "downgrade" to a simpler, lower standard of living...and having universal health coverage certainly makes the transition easier. Here in the US, there's still a prevailing attitude that only the fittest have the right to survive, and the rest be damned. (If only Darwin had never developed his theory of evolution...LOL.)

But perhaps people's attitudes will change in a hurry when they realize the consequences of failing to adapt to a new paradigm. For the sake of my country, I certainly hope this is the case. :)
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Blacksmith » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 14:46:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')Granted, you being in Canada does help, as your government is apparently supports people who voluntary "downgrade" to a simpler, lower standard of living...and having universal health coverage certainly makes the transition easier.


What a CROCK!
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby SpringCreekFarm » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 15:25:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blacksmith', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')Granted, you being in Canada does help, as your government is apparently supports people who voluntary "downgrade" to a simpler, lower standard of living...and having universal health coverage certainly makes the transition easier.


What a CROCK!


I can't believe I'm agreeing with Blacksmith but yea....this is just so silly and untrue.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Byron100 » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 15:29:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blacksmith', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')Granted, you being in Canada does help, as your government is apparently supports people who voluntary "downgrade" to a simpler, lower standard of living...and having universal health coverage certainly makes the transition easier.


What a CROCK!


I can't believe I'm agreeing with Blacksmith but yea....this is just so silly and untrue.


Can you tell me why?

I have a very good friend I chat with on a regular basis who's from Ontario, and he's always singing the praises of how easy it is to be "poor" in Canada. You get refunds from the guvvie even if you don't make cash income, plus the *free* health care, plus all kinds of other programs that people can make use of if they don't have a job, etc.

Sounds like a good deal to a "simple living" guy like me. :-D
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Bytesmiths » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 15:57:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blacksmith', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')Granted, you being in Canada does help, as your government is apparently supports people who voluntary "downgrade" to a simpler, lower standard of living...and having universal health coverage certainly makes the transition easier.


What a CROCK!


I can't believe I'm agreeing with Blacksmith but yea....this is just so silly and untrue.


Sounds like a good deal to a "simple living" guy like me. :-D


Look out, Byron100 -- you're about to get stomped on. Read back through this thread from the beginning at how I've been treated for saying something similar, then sit on your hands and resist the troll-bait.

I'm so totally with you here that I chose Canada from a long list of countries when we decided the US had no future for us. But there are those who deeply resent me for that choice.
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Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground

Postby Blacksmith » Wed 22 Apr 2009, 18:54:57

[quote="Bytesmiths] But there are those who deeply resent me for that choice.[/quote]

Canada is a nation of immigrants some like my Arab friend who are willing to contribute and unfortunately some who only are here for what they can milk from the system.

I thank God that the the "freeloading immigrant parasites" are in the in the minority.

But why are they always from the USA?
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