[MonteQuest]

On April 6, 2005, the World Bank announced that world economic growth had peaked. On April 13-15, we saw a major correction in the stock market. It was also an ominous portent when foreclosure.com released their monthly update with a 50% increase in home mortgage foreclosures, February to March, with increases in 47 of our 50 states.

The housing bubble has been pricked and there will be a deflation of housing equity and higher interest rates. How long will people hang on with declining home values coupled with rising interest rates?

The dollar will decline farther and interest rates will rise. Stagflation is waiting in the wings.

I have been predicting this since I came on this site, but I am going to go one step farther. I believe that we have reached the all-time, and forever all-time high, of economic growth and afflulence. It is all down-hill from here. This is the best it will ever get in the old world paradigm of endless growth and prosperity. Time to pay the piper.

Now, what is going to be interesting is to watch the efforts made to try to sustain this cow and prolong a terminal economic illness. It's going to be a roller coaster ride with great volatility in the markets.

[pea-jay]

I predict that human nature being what it is, will prevent us from collectively recognizing source of the problem for another few years. We will probably muddle our way through the next year to two of (relatively mild) economic contraction before the real pain sets in. Right about the time there are no more mega projects coming online and the North American gas network suffers terminal depletion and shortage.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I') predict that human nature being what it is, will prevent us from collectively recognizing source of the problem for another few years. We will probably muddle our way through the next year to two of (relatively mild) economic contraction before the real pain sets in. Right about the time there are no more mega projects coming online and the North American gas network suffers terminal depletion and shortage.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')keptic Steven Bratman on the "science" of economics:

If the hard sciences are problematic, one wonders whether there is any rational reason to favor any conclusions drawn by the soft sciences. Consider economics. An economy is a complex system with multiple interlocking variables and a great range of natural variation, much like a human body. Because it isn't possible to change just one variable in an economy, nor to try an experiment twice by restarting an identical society under new rules, economic analysis is really the equivalent of observational evidence (economic records) combined with plausible reasoning (an economic model)....

[Wildwell]

They were talking about *rate* of growth has peaked in the current economic cycle.

Not it had peaked forever and was downhill. This is a misrepresentation of the facts.

[Cyrus]

So, I just got all worked up for nothing.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'T')hey were talking about *rate* of growth has peaked in the current economic cycle.

Not it had peaked forever and was downhill. This is a misrepresentation of the facts.

[Jack]

As interesting as the efforts to keep things alive will be, I think the psychology of the people involved will be more interesting.

The steps are, as I recall, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance.

Surprisingly enough, there are people who deny that exponential growth will end. Even after the condition has been diagnosed.

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'T')hey were talking about *rate* of growth has peaked in the current economic cycle.

Not it had peaked forever and was downhill. This is a misrepresentation of the facts.

[tmazanec1]

She is just clearing her throat. She will sing in a matter of months. It has just begun, bit it is beginning.

[RonMN]

Is anybody else concerned about bush's speech on wednesday? I know it wont happen like this but i have this nagging fear he's gonna come out & announce Ghawar has peaked and we're all screwed! May God continue to bless America!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', '
')MQ, I think you are a nice enough guy and believe what your saying is true and I have a sneaking suspicion that you are quite looking forward to the time everyone will live on ranches similar to yourself and the world will return to a time before all these nasty industrialists and capitalists.

[Vexed]

An AP business article run yesterday April 16th said:

"If, on the whole, (corporate) earnings can go up, then we might be able to overcome oil and inflation and all the other things."

Does this statement make any sense whatsoever?

It seems like circular logic. Isn’t it oil and inflation (and the “other things”) much of the reason that “on the whole” corporate earnings are down in the first place?

Aren’t corporate earnings in general a reflection of consumer confidence (falling), retail sales (falling), and purchasing power/employment rates (falling)?

Aren’t corporate earnings in general also a reflection of interest rates (rising, perhaps aggressively soon) and energy costs (rising)?

Is my logic flawed?

Seems to me that it would take some very creative accounting for corporate earnings to suddenly “overcome oil and inflation and all the other things” when it is in fact those very problems (and their offshoots) that are hampering earnings in the first place. (Perhaps if you believe that oil and inflation can be brought under control we could increase earnings – but that is not what is being argued in the AP quote.)

The American economy is looking pretty scary. I think Montequest pointed out some interesting indicators.

Will this be the “all-time, and forever all-time high, of economic growth and afflulence?”

Well, it’s always darkest before dawn….

I’ve been saying that for sometime now. And darnit-all-to-gosh I’ll keep on saying it. That kind’ve confidence might be all that can save us.

Even as it keeps getting darker and darker.

It’s not getting darker. It’s not. It’s not. It’s not. If we can increase corporate earnings, all our problems (even the problems causing declining earnings) will just go away.

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', '
')MQ, I think you are a nice enough guy and believe what your saying is true and I have a sneaking suspicion that you are quite looking forward to the time everyone will live on ranches similar to yourself and the world will return to a time before all these nasty industrialists and capitalists.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') believe that we have reached the all-time, and forever all-time high, of economic growth and afflulence. It is all down-hill from here.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', ' ') I just think where you and me disagree is over the ‘die off’ scenario and economic growth, because of the numerous factors and timescales at play.

[NevadaGhosts]

Monte,

I back you up on your prediction. I think you are right. It will be all downhill from here on out. Don't worry about offending some people here on this site with your prediction. They can't handle the truth. Screw 'em.

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', 'M')onte,

I back you up on your prediction. I think you are right. It will be all downhill from here on out. Don't worry about offending some people here on this site with your prediction. They can't handle the truth. Screw 'em.

[NevadaGhosts]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', 'M')onte,

I back you up on your prediction. I think you are right. It will be all downhill from here on out. Don't worry about offending some people here on this site with your prediction. They can't handle the truth. Screw 'em.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', ' ')
MQ: No I don't read everything you have written on this site since it began, plenty of other people have opinions and I don't have the time of day. You must assume you are 100% right. I don't assume I may be 100% correct, I can assure you, hence my actions.