PeakOil is You
Hello Pt 6
New Post from New User Moonstroller
by Moonstroller » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 06:22:49
Nice site. Looking forward for engaging dialog.
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Notes from the Last Historian
by Last_Historian » Tue 10 Feb 2009, 20:19:22
Hi,
A bit about myself. I lived in Russia until 1996 (and experienced a limited socio/economic collapse), then in the US. Occasional lurker on here and follower of sites like the Oil Drum and Orlov's writings.
1. I was a PO skeptic until about a year ago. Not that I didn't believe we'd eventually reach the peaking of oil extraction, but that there are easily replaceable technologies in place that would mitigate it (albeit perhaps with a few hiccups). I also regarded anthropogenic climate change as a far greater risk to industrial civilization.
2. This was probably mostly due to the fact that when I first came across PO several years back it was from an extreme "doomer" perspective, whose certainty in imminent collapse and obsession with guns, the "elites", canned food, etc, did not predispose me to them too much. What changed my mind was coming across the more evidence-based and mathematical arguments in concepts such as diminishing EROIE, net exports, geopolitical factors, etc. Particularly influential was my reading of Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update, which tied in the trends of resource depletion and rising pollution ton to argue for global collapse within half a century, barring some kind of fundamental values shift or technological silver bullet. Far from being the doom-mongering non-evidence based tract it is frequently portrayed to be in the capitalist press, it is actually very reasonable and convincing.
3. My own view is that we are already close to a turning point, if not already then almost certainly within the next ten years. A turning point not in the sense that full-fledged collapse will necessarily begin right then, but that social and political trends now will determine twenty-first century outcomes.
If we move towards more global governance, radical plans for "contraction and convergence" on CO2 emissions and a concerted effort to use the remaining high EROIE energy sources to build up a less energy-intensive, more efficient, cleaner and renewable energy system, then we have good chances of avoiding catastrophe and actually making this century quite pleasant for most people. Though I am not a "cornucopian", I believe that some kind of technological singularity is attainable and that many more resources should now be directed to facilitate research in this direction (above all biotechnology, nanotechnology and AI), even if it forces big cuts in personal material consumption.
Realistically speaking, I've got to say I'm rather more pessimistic. Economic travails will only increase as long as we remain focused on material growth and as high EROIE energy sources dry up; the current recession/depression is the tip of the iceberg. In times of economic hardship, the kind of leaders that come to power are typically populist, authoritarian, corrupt and short-sighted. Technological research and long-term energy and environmental planning will be the first areas to be abandoned by them in favor of dispersing goodies to their supporters and guns to their strong-arms. I am very concerned that if we are indeed close to the brink now, then the technology level will be "frozen" at the level of the 2015 or so (until further collapse leads to actual regression).
So in effect I strongly disagree with the "moderate" or "centrist" notion that we'll muddle our way through as usual (10% chance). Either we change our values, or achieve stunning technological breakthroughs, and break through the limits to growth via a technological singularity (20% chance), or by mid-century there'll be mass die-off and industrial civilization will rot at the bottom of the Olduvai Gorge (70% chance).
4. I think it is important to have more research on these issues - the nature of economic growth, technological development, political developments, climate change and resource depletion, not separately but in an integrated fashion. Achieving a good global understanding of this is vital to maximizing the chance of ending up with positive outcomes this century.
I intend to ask questions on these issues here. E.g. one example comes to mind. The estimates I've seen for the typical EROIE of wind power range from 20 to less than 1. How is it worked out specifically? What are the assumptions built in behind such vastly differing estimates? I also find some of the "compilation" threads here very useful.
After accumulating enough knowledge and notes, I hope to translate some of it into articles on my blog and tentatively on a book I'm planning about the history of the twenty-first century. (Hence the "Last Historian" usrname
A bit about myself. I lived in Russia until 1996 (and experienced a limited socio/economic collapse), then in the US. Occasional lurker on here and follower of sites like the Oil Drum and Orlov's writings.
1. I was a PO skeptic until about a year ago. Not that I didn't believe we'd eventually reach the peaking of oil extraction, but that there are easily replaceable technologies in place that would mitigate it (albeit perhaps with a few hiccups). I also regarded anthropogenic climate change as a far greater risk to industrial civilization.
2. This was probably mostly due to the fact that when I first came across PO several years back it was from an extreme "doomer" perspective, whose certainty in imminent collapse and obsession with guns, the "elites", canned food, etc, did not predispose me to them too much. What changed my mind was coming across the more evidence-based and mathematical arguments in concepts such as diminishing EROIE, net exports, geopolitical factors, etc. Particularly influential was my reading of Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update, which tied in the trends of resource depletion and rising pollution ton to argue for global collapse within half a century, barring some kind of fundamental values shift or technological silver bullet. Far from being the doom-mongering non-evidence based tract it is frequently portrayed to be in the capitalist press, it is actually very reasonable and convincing.
3. My own view is that we are already close to a turning point, if not already then almost certainly within the next ten years. A turning point not in the sense that full-fledged collapse will necessarily begin right then, but that social and political trends now will determine twenty-first century outcomes.
If we move towards more global governance, radical plans for "contraction and convergence" on CO2 emissions and a concerted effort to use the remaining high EROIE energy sources to build up a less energy-intensive, more efficient, cleaner and renewable energy system, then we have good chances of avoiding catastrophe and actually making this century quite pleasant for most people. Though I am not a "cornucopian", I believe that some kind of technological singularity is attainable and that many more resources should now be directed to facilitate research in this direction (above all biotechnology, nanotechnology and AI), even if it forces big cuts in personal material consumption.
Realistically speaking, I've got to say I'm rather more pessimistic. Economic travails will only increase as long as we remain focused on material growth and as high EROIE energy sources dry up; the current recession/depression is the tip of the iceberg. In times of economic hardship, the kind of leaders that come to power are typically populist, authoritarian, corrupt and short-sighted. Technological research and long-term energy and environmental planning will be the first areas to be abandoned by them in favor of dispersing goodies to their supporters and guns to their strong-arms. I am very concerned that if we are indeed close to the brink now, then the technology level will be "frozen" at the level of the 2015 or so (until further collapse leads to actual regression).
So in effect I strongly disagree with the "moderate" or "centrist" notion that we'll muddle our way through as usual (10% chance). Either we change our values, or achieve stunning technological breakthroughs, and break through the limits to growth via a technological singularity (20% chance), or by mid-century there'll be mass die-off and industrial civilization will rot at the bottom of the Olduvai Gorge (70% chance).
4. I think it is important to have more research on these issues - the nature of economic growth, technological development, political developments, climate change and resource depletion, not separately but in an integrated fashion. Achieving a good global understanding of this is vital to maximizing the chance of ending up with positive outcomes this century.
I intend to ask questions on these issues here. E.g. one example comes to mind. The estimates I've seen for the typical EROIE of wind power range from 20 to less than 1. How is it worked out specifically? What are the assumptions built in behind such vastly differing estimates? I also find some of the "compilation" threads here very useful.
After accumulating enough knowledge and notes, I hope to translate some of it into articles on my blog and tentatively on a book I'm planning about the history of the twenty-first century. (Hence the "Last Historian" usrname
my Sublime Oblivion blog on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil.
You can also follow me on Facebook and Twitter.
Forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them. - Chateaubriand.
You can also follow me on Facebook and Twitter.
Forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them. - Chateaubriand.
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Last_Historian - Peat
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Re: Notes from the Last Historian
by essex » Tue 10 Feb 2009, 23:23:51
Quite a lot on wind energy here.
http://www.palmerston-north.info
Basically it is oversold as a solution, although it has a part to play as long as it doesn't ruin the environment.
http://www.palmerston-north.info
Basically it is oversold as a solution, although it has a part to play as long as it doesn't ruin the environment.
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essex - Lignite
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Re: Notes from the Last Historian
by Last_Historian » Thu 12 Feb 2009, 04:21:55
@pstarr,
I still think it's easier to define what I am not, which is a moderate. Of course I hope for, and think that if the right steps are taken, the cornucopian outcome is possible; on the other hand collapse is far more realistic due to political and social reasons. Perhaps I'm something like a... singularitarian doomer?
@essex,
I agree, but it's still the renewable source with the best long-term prospects. Short of a massive retooling of world industrial capacity to build wind turbines, though, it will not make a significant impact quickly enough.
I still think it's easier to define what I am not, which is a moderate. Of course I hope for, and think that if the right steps are taken, the cornucopian outcome is possible; on the other hand collapse is far more realistic due to political and social reasons. Perhaps I'm something like a... singularitarian doomer?
@essex,
I agree, but it's still the renewable source with the best long-term prospects. Short of a massive retooling of world industrial capacity to build wind turbines, though, it will not make a significant impact quickly enough.
my Sublime Oblivion blog on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil.
You can also follow me on Facebook and Twitter.
Forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them. - Chateaubriand.
You can also follow me on Facebook and Twitter.
Forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them. - Chateaubriand.
-
Last_Historian - Peat
- Posts: 67
- Joined: Tue 10 Feb 2009, 19:01:14
Re: I'm Baaaack!
by EnviroEngr » Sun 15 Mar 2009, 03:11:53
In a very interesting twist on things over in UAE, my friends there are laying low. The Emirates collectively did a bet on Currencies and along with Kuwait, took a bit of a loss with that speculation.
Many I knew who were working in Dubai had to transfer to Abu Dhabi or deal with unemployment. All that construction over there has nearly come to a screeching halt.
The games being played are fascinating indeed.
Many I knew who were working in Dubai had to transfer to Abu Dhabi or deal with unemployment. All that construction over there has nearly come to a screeching halt.
The games being played are fascinating indeed.
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
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Re: I'm Baaaack!
by SeaGypsy » Sun 15 Mar 2009, 04:06:33
Hi EviroEng; I just got here a few weeks ago, after reading for about a year. I have been a little buzy here.
Isn't Dubai going to become the worlds fanciest ghost town?
Don't they get vitually ALL of their water from oil driven desalination plants? Don't they have the highest per capita number of golf courses all using this water?
I see Dubai as the prime example in the entire world of unsustanability.
Am I wrong? I've never been there,
Isn't Dubai going to become the worlds fanciest ghost town?
Don't they get vitually ALL of their water from oil driven desalination plants? Don't they have the highest per capita number of golf courses all using this water?
I see Dubai as the prime example in the entire world of unsustanability.
Am I wrong? I've never been there,
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Re: I'm Baaaack!
by Daniel_Plainview » Sun 15 Mar 2009, 06:51:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'S')omething in Dubai?
The Burj Dubai, I do believe. It's the tallest occupied structure ever constructed. Here's the wiki on it. Quite an amazing structure.Edit: dino beat me to it by 2 minutes, which is the time I spent reading the wiki article.
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Re: I'm Baaaack!
by EnviroEngr » Sun 15 Mar 2009, 23:41:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'H')i EviroEng; I just got here a few weeks ago, after reading for about a year. I have been a little buzy here.Isn't Dubai going to become the worlds fanciest ghost town?
Don't they get vitually ALL of their water from oil driven desalination plants? Don't they have the highest per capita number of golf courses all using this water? I see Dubai as the prime example in the entire world of unsustanability. Am I wrong? I've never been there,
It was truly otherworldly how blithely people there just accepted a bird-in-the-hand status quo. There is so much entitlement in the culture, that questions are never asked about "how is all this possilble?" The amount of water they used on roundabout and roadway landscape beautification was just unbelievable. I never drank the water there. Most everything for drinking was in bottles. I showered in the dasalinated water and didn't have any reactions to it. I did see street sign advertisements encouraging "partial ablution" water conservation. Washing before prayers 5 times a day in a desert region can really tap supplies. To some extent, they know the problem; to another, they'd rather wish it away.Don't they get vitually ALL of their water from oil driven desalination plants? Don't they have the highest per capita number of golf courses all using this water? I see Dubai as the prime example in the entire world of unsustanability. Am I wrong? I've never been there,
One also has to understand the thinking and motivations of Arab people. The way they see life and the purpose of daily life is radically different than in the West. Even tho there is a lot of stratification in the Peninsula, the basic view is "we'll enjoy this material life the way it's presented to us until we can't anymore" I'm sure the Sheiks see it quite differently. :D Either way, neither the common people nor the ruling elite seemed to understand that building and living out-of-scale are collapse inducing fantasies.
When I was in Fujairah, I found out that Qatar has a HUGE reserve of natural gas. At least for UAE, the power that runs everything comes mostly from NG to electric power transmission. You might know how energy intensive it is to take salt out of sea water. As far as I know, there is precious little ground water reserve anywhere in Saudia or the other Kingdoms. So, for sure, all or nearly all the non-potable water is desalinated. Hello Qatar!! Hope they all get along....
In essence, I came back with the lesson that if it's easy, it will be done, regardless how ill advised it may be relative to future generations. And, besides the Palm Islands, Dubai will be a forefront leader in how the Mighty Will Fall vis-a-vis energy availability.
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
-------------------------------------------
(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
-------------------------------------------
(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
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EnviroEngr - Heavy Crude
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Re: I'm Baaaack!
by EnviroEngr » Mon 16 Mar 2009, 00:23:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'S')omething in Dubai?
The Burj Dubai, I do believe. It's the tallest occupied structure ever constructed. Here's the wiki on it. Quite an amazing structure.Edit: dino beat me to it by 2 minutes, which is the time I spent reading the wiki article.
-------------------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
-------------------------------------------
(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
-------------------------------------------
(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
