by ReverseEngineer » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 09:15:40
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How can one be sure it is a monetary system collapse and not a Depression, in the manner of a K-wave winter? It does seem to fit the pattern of a 60-year odd K-wave cycle.
If it is a total collapse, then your idea has great merit, except for the difficulty of getting the world leaders to do something that actually makes sense, and getting them all to coordinate.
It fits the cycle pattern, and it IS a Kondratieff Winter, but in order to see that it goes BEYOND that you have to look at the signs coming from OUTSIDE the economic cycle patterns. Those signs are what we see in the natural world. The collapse of ecosystems, the droughts in ag areas of the world that support the current population, and most of all from the perspective of this board, the Peak Oil problem.
Economic Theory works in abstract, from Adam Smith to Marx to Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes, its all done in absence of boundary conditions. Even Marx doesn't acknowledge the boundary conditions of the natural world. The Proposition I hold as TRUTH here in making my analysis is that Economics is a REFLECTION of the natural world, and so when economics meets up with the boundary conditions of the size of the earth and the ecological populations it supports it MUST capitulate to those boundary conditions. That is why I have been trying to force a discussion of a monetary system based on the actual status of world energy, from the USABLE perspective of food production rather than strictly looking at Joules of energy available either through renewable sources or fossil fuels.
In all prior depressions which follow the pattern of the Kondratieff cycles, you still had extant energy in surplus, either through underustilized land mass or underutilized fossil fuels, so the lack of a boundary condition did not affect in significant fashion the ability to reconstruct after a Kondratieff Winter. In THIS case, you cannot reconstruct similarly, fundamentally neither a fixed standard based on PMs nor a motile standard of fiat money based on debt and growth can adequately distribute the resources of a shrinking natural world. I am not arguing that it is not a Kondratieff Winter, IT IS. Just its not soluble as prior ones were because of the boundary conditions of the natural world that now press down on the economics.
I do agree that it is close to impossible to get World Leaders to agree to the kind of changes necessary here that would actually WORK to coordinate the shrinkage. NOBODY, including our own Obama even wants to admit that Growth isn;t possible anymore, so that in itself makes what I talk about impossible in the current climate. However, it will become obvious over next 2-5 years that growth is not possible, and the extreme PAIN the world as a whole will be in perhaps will make it possible for new thinking to emerge. It behooves us here to discuss what might be possible solutions. Nobody else is talking about it. Aren;t we Peak OIlers supposed to be the FORWARD thinking crowd? I do not think by any means I have this worked out, I just have some principles I think are worth discussion. There are many here who have called this collapse along with me, some more prescient people called it long before I did. Now we have to go another step and make REAL proposals on just how to ADDRESS the problem in a constructive manner.
I want to make one point very clear here to my good friend Pops. I AM doing something, and its not the same thing he does which is focusing on just what one does for oneself in a small way. I am TRYING to get many people to THINK about BIG solutions. There is no problem so big it cannot be solved. You just have to grasp hold of it and get enough people working on the solution to make it possible. We have those people here. ShortonOil, put on your Thinking Cap. Lets work it out.
Reverse Engineer