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Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 09:15:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')
How can one be sure it is a monetary system collapse and not a Depression, in the manner of a K-wave winter? It does seem to fit the pattern of a 60-year odd K-wave cycle.

If it is a total collapse, then your idea has great merit, except for the difficulty of getting the world leaders to do something that actually makes sense, and getting them all to coordinate.


It fits the cycle pattern, and it IS a Kondratieff Winter, but in order to see that it goes BEYOND that you have to look at the signs coming from OUTSIDE the economic cycle patterns. Those signs are what we see in the natural world. The collapse of ecosystems, the droughts in ag areas of the world that support the current population, and most of all from the perspective of this board, the Peak Oil problem.

Economic Theory works in abstract, from Adam Smith to Marx to Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes, its all done in absence of boundary conditions. Even Marx doesn't acknowledge the boundary conditions of the natural world. The Proposition I hold as TRUTH here in making my analysis is that Economics is a REFLECTION of the natural world, and so when economics meets up with the boundary conditions of the size of the earth and the ecological populations it supports it MUST capitulate to those boundary conditions. That is why I have been trying to force a discussion of a monetary system based on the actual status of world energy, from the USABLE perspective of food production rather than strictly looking at Joules of energy available either through renewable sources or fossil fuels.

In all prior depressions which follow the pattern of the Kondratieff cycles, you still had extant energy in surplus, either through underustilized land mass or underutilized fossil fuels, so the lack of a boundary condition did not affect in significant fashion the ability to reconstruct after a Kondratieff Winter. In THIS case, you cannot reconstruct similarly, fundamentally neither a fixed standard based on PMs nor a motile standard of fiat money based on debt and growth can adequately distribute the resources of a shrinking natural world. I am not arguing that it is not a Kondratieff Winter, IT IS. Just its not soluble as prior ones were because of the boundary conditions of the natural world that now press down on the economics.

I do agree that it is close to impossible to get World Leaders to agree to the kind of changes necessary here that would actually WORK to coordinate the shrinkage. NOBODY, including our own Obama even wants to admit that Growth isn;t possible anymore, so that in itself makes what I talk about impossible in the current climate. However, it will become obvious over next 2-5 years that growth is not possible, and the extreme PAIN the world as a whole will be in perhaps will make it possible for new thinking to emerge. It behooves us here to discuss what might be possible solutions. Nobody else is talking about it. Aren;t we Peak OIlers supposed to be the FORWARD thinking crowd? I do not think by any means I have this worked out, I just have some principles I think are worth discussion. There are many here who have called this collapse along with me, some more prescient people called it long before I did. Now we have to go another step and make REAL proposals on just how to ADDRESS the problem in a constructive manner.

I want to make one point very clear here to my good friend Pops. I AM doing something, and its not the same thing he does which is focusing on just what one does for oneself in a small way. I am TRYING to get many people to THINK about BIG solutions. There is no problem so big it cannot be solved. You just have to grasp hold of it and get enough people working on the solution to make it possible. We have those people here. ShortonOil, put on your Thinking Cap. Lets work it out.

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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby rangerone314 » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 09:38:45

If you are forward looking towards a situation where energy is the standard for economics, why both with separate currencies?

You could simply have a single world unit of energy credits, where essentially one credit is redeemable for a given amount of energy.

Perhaps everyone gets a certain quota of energy, and then it is up to them to decide what to do with their quota of energy.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby vision-master » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 09:52:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t fits the cycle pattern, and it IS a Kondratieff Winter, but in order to see that it goes BEYOND that you have to look at the signs coming from OUTSIDE the economic cycle patterns. Those signs are what we see in the natural world. The collapse of ecosystems, the droughts in ag areas of the world that support the current population, and most of all from the perspective of this board, the Peak Oil problem.



The Great Platonic year......
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby sjn » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 10:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')
I want to make one point very clear here to my good friend Pops. I AM doing something, and its not the same thing he does which is focusing on just what one does for oneself in a small way. I am TRYING to get many people to THINK about BIG solutions. There is no problem so big it cannot be solved. You just have to grasp hold of it and get enough people working on the solution to make it possible. We have those people here. ShortonOil, put on your Thinking Cap. Lets work it out.

Reverse Engineer

All problems may have solutions, but solutions are not necessarily acceptable to those with problems. Sometimes, those with the problems are the problem.

Otherwise, I agree. :)
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 10:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')All problems may have solutions, but solutions are not necessarily acceptable to those with problems. Sometimes, those with the problems are the problem.



No doubt. However, anyone who is not part of the solution is part of the problem ;-) Anyone who PERSISTS in being part of the problem earns a one way ticket to the Great Beyond. Its all about CHOICES. I have little sympathy for people who won't acknowledge resource depletion and its ramifications. I have less sympathy for people who expect to live at the expense of another. I have no problem WHATSOEVER with the concept that if you make the WRONG choice in the battle between the Haves and the Have Nots and attempt to keep your wealth while another starves that you will suffer separation anxiety of your head from your neck. :-)

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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby timmatoil » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 11:39:01

How realistic is President Obama’s call for Americans to “discover great opportunity in the midst of great crisis”? (See here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090307/ap_ ... wh/obama_2) It’s a “survival of the fittest” thing, says the Stock Research Portal:“Whether there are enough people who can discern and act on opportunities in the current climate to turn the U.S. economy around any time soon remains to be seen.”

Via Stock Research Portal (http://www.stockresearchportal.com)

Do you agree? Is their a great opportunity now?
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby vision-master » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 11:41:27

Fixed: “survival of the richest
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby Ludi » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 12:30:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'F')ixed: “survival of the richest



Yep. Unless the non-rich can work together to prevent the rich from accumulating the remaining wealth.

Otherwise, buh-bye middle class, hello New Feudalism.
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby gnm » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 12:33:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ep. Unless the non-rich can work together to prevent the rich from accumulating the remaining wealth.

Otherwise, buh-bye middle class, hello New Feudalism.


Ludi, I really think we are there already. :(

-G
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby vision-master » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 12:38:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ep. Unless the non-rich can work together to prevent the rich from accumulating the remaining wealth.

Otherwise, buh-bye middle class, hello New Feudalism.


Ludi, I really think we are there already. :(

-G


Cut off credit cards and see the middle class evaporate.
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby Ludi » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 12:39:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '
')Ludi, I really think we are there already. :(

-G



I disagree, though I do agree we are very close. I think a lot of people, even a lot of non-rich, want it that way. :( They think the rich deserve to be rich, deserve to have more than anyone else, work harder than the non-rich, etc. You even see these kinds of sentiments expressed here on the board. Though of course it is expressed in a spirit of "anti-socialism."
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby gnm » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 12:41:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ep. Unless the non-rich can work together to prevent the rich from accumulating the remaining wealth.

Otherwise, buh-bye middle class, hello New Feudalism.


Ludi, I really think we are there already. :(

-G


Cut off credit cards and see the middle class evaporate.


Really? I'm middle class and have no credit cards....

-G
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby rangerone314 » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 12:56:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '
')Ludi, I really think we are there already. :(

-G



I disagree, though I do agree we are very close. I think a lot of people, even a lot of non-rich, want it that way. :( They think the rich deserve to be rich, deserve to have more than anyone else, work harder than the non-rich, etc. You even see these kinds of sentiments expressed here on the board. Though of course it is expressed in a spirit of "anti-socialism."


What I'd love to know is people who express those sentiments, if they think a person who makes $1,000,000 works 10X hard than someone making $100,000?? Even if you buy the whole arguement & it were true, there obviously can't be a proportional mathematical relationship.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby jasonraymondson » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 13:35:47

People who make 100,000 work 10 times harder than someone who makes 10,000

Obviously, anyone who thinks that, has not done physical labor.

I worked in a foundry for two years. I guaran mother fucking tee you that no god damn ceo has ever worked that fucking hard in their life.
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby threadbear » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 13:55:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'P')eople who make 100,000 work 10 times harder than someone who makes 10,000

Obviously, anyone who thinks that, has not done physical labor.

I worked in a foundry for two years. I guaran mother fucking tee you that no god damn ceo has ever worked that fucking hard in their life.


When I was in my early twenties I worked, for minimum wage in a day care center, changing diapers, exposed to ear splitting noise, etc...Lots of physical labour, exposure to every bug known to mankind. It was like doing time in an Indian rat temple. Cute rats, loved them, but...all the same...nobody should have to do this for minimum wage. This was before the days of tight govt regulations. The place had over 100 screaming kids in about 3,500 sq feet of space.

I hear you, Jason. Nobody works harder than people doing menial labour, or working with kids. Teachers, nurses, in understaffed schools, hospitals...same.

Being a CEO--piece of cake. Great money. All you have to do is think, and you can delegate much of that, too. I'm sure any of us here could have done better running Wall street, than the bunch of ideologically retarded fools who have pretty much destroyed everyone's stock portfolios.

If I've learned anything in 53 years, it's to have a LOT of respect for people who actually work, and not much for those who, like parasites manage to worm their way into positions of hyper status, that they don't deserve.
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby jasonraymondson » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 14:03:23

I love how people claim they work so hard and are under so much pressure to perform, that their lively hood is based on performance of the company?

I would really like to know what the ceo actually does other than delicate authority and get $50,000,000.00 severance packages.
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby vision-master » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 14:08:43

They got the 'vision'. :lol:
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby gnm » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 14:09:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'B')eing a CEO--piece of cake. Great money. All you have to do is think, and you can delegate much of that, too. I'm sure any of us here could have done better running Wall street, than the bunch of ideologically retarded fools who have pretty much destroyed everyone's stock portfolios.

If I've learned anything in 53 years, it's to have a LOT of respect for people who actually work, and not much for those who, like parasites manage to worm their way into positions of hyper status, that they don't deserve.


+1!

[smilie=hello2.gif]

-G
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Re: Economists Finally Starting To Say The Word Depression

Postby deMolay » Mon 09 Mar 2009, 20:53:29

Sir Josiah Stamp "Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of Bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create deposits."
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