[Pops]

When Will Shortages of Goods Start?

I'm thinking there is a glut of goods, has been for years.

The shortage starts when you can't afford necessities.

[alokin]

Shortages is relative. If you can't get this TV set, I guess, that most people still own a old one.
But if you need grinder disks to complete a job, that's nasty.
I think it is important to figure out, what you will need in future. So you have to figure out what else can you use instead of throw away disks, something reparable. I have no idea what they used in the past. (To ease a bit the transistion you might stock up some disks).

I cannot see any empty stores yet but if you pass "industrial" areas, there is so much for sale for lease.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '
')* Breakfast Cereals - if there were 1/3 as many breakfast cereals in the breakfast cereal aisle, it would be perfectly allright with me.
.

[threadbear]

Oh...the question--when will shortages of goods start? They'll manifest in much higher prices, so actual shortages, with empty shelves, may not be evident.

[Sixstrings]

Threadbear sounds right on target to me.

I wonder what we're headed for.. Argentina or Zimbabwe?

[copious.abundance]

I just love some of the economic reasoning found here: "Demand will collapse and we'll have a Great Depression but prices will nevertheless go through the roof." You would think people would have learned something over the past 8 months but it appears not.

At any rate, some people were talking about gluts of railcars, so for those interested a few years ago I found this nifty site listing the number of American, Canadian and (some) Mexican) railcar orders going all the way back to 1956. Notice the surge from about 2003-2007. They stopped listing the numbers after 2007 but you get the idea anyway:
>>> Railcar orders <<<

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') just love some of the economic reasoning found here: "Demand will collapse and we'll have a Great Depression but prices will nevertheless go through the roof." You would think people would have learned something over the past 8 months but it appears not.

At any rate, some people were talking about gluts of railcars, so for those interested a few years ago I found this nifty site listing the number of American, Canadian and (some) Mexican) railcar orders going all the way back to 1956. Notice the surge from about 2003-2007. They stopped listing the numbers after 2007 but you get the idea anyway:
>>> Railcar orders <<<

[Blacksmith]

I can’t agree that oil is over, yes inexpensive oil is over. Devaluing the dollar will bring the price of oil down, but if the value of the dollar were plunging, the oil exporting countries would have an enormous incentive to shift to pricing oil in other currencies.

Worldwide demand for oil is down now true, but curiously I have never been busier. The oil companies know that when things bottom out, demand will increase, perhaps slowly, but increase it will, because there is simply nothing which can replace it.

Much more serious is the developing tendencies to price oil in another currency other than US dollars and a return to protectionist policies worldwide.

[copious.abundance]

@threadbear:

Every industry periodically goes through periods of consolidation. That does not mean prices go up: #1) There are always new entrants into the industry. #2) Even if, for some reason, there aren't many new entrants into the industry, the larger, consolidated industry can take advantage of economies of scale and produce a product more efficiently and more inexpensively (even oil) in part because they have acccess to larger amounts of capital. The only type of consolidation that would produce a total lack of competition would be a true monopoly - and if that ever happened the gov't would step in and either break up the company or regulate their pricing (like a utility). #3) Even if you were right and a wave of consolidation made prices jump, the higher prices would make a lot of marginal deposits profitable and you would get #1 occuring.

[threadbear]

The US can no longer afford to beat the oil producing countries into a fine pulp to scare them into oil compliance. A very interesting phenomenon, for sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')pparently Oily never heard of stagflation, a temporary but related economic condition in the 1970's. That was a consequence of another inflationary orgy (two wars--Vietnam and the War on Poverty) coupled with a similar resource crunch -- the US oil peak.

Sure there is oil in the ground. But it will remain too expensive to an economic system specifically designed around light sweet crude flowing under it's own pressure near the surface and next to distribution infrastructure. Not Bakken, deep water, or arctic.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')he US can no longer afford to beat the oil producing countries into a fine pulp to scare them into oil compliance. A very interesting phenomenon, for sure.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '@')threadbear:

Every industry periodically goes through periods of consolidation. That does not mean prices go up: #1) There are always new entrants into the industry. #2) Even if, for some reason, there aren't many new entrants into the industry, the larger, consolidated industry can take advantage of economies of scale and produce a product more efficiently and more inexpensively (even oil) in part because they have acccess to larger amounts of capital. The only type of consolidation that would produce a total lack of competition would be a true monopoly - and if that ever happened the gov't would step in and either break up the company or regulate their pricing (like a utility). #3) Even if you were right and a wave of consolidation made prices jump, the higher prices would make a lot of marginal deposits profitable and you would get #1 occuring.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')hen there is consolidation in infrastructure, prices go up. That is the goal of consolidation--the elimination of competition. Study consolidation in electricity generation., distribution.

[EndOfGrowth]

Seems strange that Warren Buffet has recently bought 2.3m shares in BNSF

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... b3619.html

[Newfie]

From Railway Age magazine:
Carloads % change over 53 weeks - January 3, 2009
Major US Railroads // Canadian
Ag products -20% // -26.4%
Chemicals -19% // -27.2%
Coal -3.7% // -46.7%
Forest Products -29.5% // -32.0%
Metallic Ores & metals -42.3% // -18.5
Motor veh & equip -52.5% // -42.8%
Nonmetallic min & products -36.7% // -27.2
Other -20.9% // -22.9%

Change from 2007
US total -2.5%
Canadian Total -6.7%
US Canadian total -3.3%

The last I looked at this a few weeks ago it was not nearly this bad. I expected it to represent a mixed bag.

This is fairly shocking. It seems to run counter to the Baltic Dry Index which has been up some recently.

Not feeling good right now.

[deMolay]

How many have noticed that the US Dollar the price of oil and the price of gold no longer always rise and fall together.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'H')ow many have noticed that the US Dollar the price of oil and the price of gold no longer always rise and fall together.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')hen there is consolidation in infrastructure, prices go up. That is the goal of consolidation--the elimination of competition. Study consolidation in electricity generation., distribution.