[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')he US can no longer afford to beat the oil producing countries into a fine pulp to scare them into oil compliance. A very interesting phenomenon, for sure.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'H')ow many have noticed that the US Dollar the price of oil and the price of gold no longer always rise and fall together.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'E')lectricity has been held somewhat in check by Enron over reaching and shooting ITSELF in the foot, after the tremendous price spike in the Northwest in the early 2000's. Please don't try to convince me that manipulation doesn't take place in infrastructure industries. Also, manipulation doesn't have to occur to set the dynamic in place for higher gasoline prices that I have outlined. It develops naturally if lower prices drive out competition. If you don't think consolidation drives prices up, regardless of economies of scale, check out your telecommunications monthly bill, if you're in British Columbia.

[deMolay]

Newfie those railway shipping stats are scary. And a very bad harbinger. I am not sure why gold, oil and the US dollar value have started to separate from each other. Out of habit I guess I always watched those 3 on the banner on business channels. It looks to me like gold dipped recently probably on profit taking. Some of the big boys probably had to settle debts. Oil is a commodity an essential commodity. Oil and gold is all that is holding the Canadian economy afloat. Canada is a major supplier of both. What I am wondering does it mean that the world is now starting to slowly dump the US dollar.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'E')lectricity has been held somewhat in check by Enron over reaching and shooting ITSELF in the foot, after the tremendous price spike in the Northwest in the early 2000's. Please don't try to convince me that manipulation doesn't take place in infrastructure industries. Also, manipulation doesn't have to occur to set the dynamic in place for higher gasoline prices that I have outlined. It develops naturally if lower prices drive out competition. If you don't think consolidation drives prices up, regardless of economies of scale, check out your telecommunications monthly bill, if you're in British Columbia.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'Y')ou have proven nothing. Consolidation increases the power of a corporation enabling it to distort political and legal processes. Enron is a perfect example of a corporation whose activities became so destructive and so blatantly illegal, it brought itself down. There is a price point beyond which a company can't go, or they DO risk harming themselves. Enron passed that point.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '[')
So, you've admitted that any company who gets too much power in the short term will eventually shoot itself in the foot and come crashing down in the long term. Good. Now, apply that same concept to your claim about consolidation in the oil industry.

[copious.abundance]

There have always been alternatives to MS, it's just that it wasn't always practical to use something else, which is a somewhat unique situation with computers and software (since software is platform-dependent). This is not the case with oil - 25 degree sweet oil from Brazil produced by Petrobras is just as good as 25 degree sweet oil from Nigeria produced by Shell.

But if Shell and Exxon became the only oil producers left and started price gouging, you can be sure the reaction would be as swift and severe as it was for Enron.

That said, there is no way the oil-producing biz is going to become as concentrated as the computer operating system business anyway. There are far too many oil producers out there, scattered all over the world. In the US there are probably hundreds. No one is going to buy them all up - I'm not even sure it would be possible to do so (or, at least not very practical to try). IIRC, 60% of the oil produced in the US is produced by small and medium-sized independents. Crashing prices will no doubt create some consolidation, but there will still be plenty of others remaining.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')here have always been alternatives to MS, it's just that it wasn't always practical to use something else, which is a somewhat unique situation with computers and software (since software is platform-dependent). This is not the case with oil - 25 degree sweet oil from Brazil produced by Petrobras is just as good as 25 degree sweet oil from Nigeria produced by Shell.

But if Shell and Exxon became the only oil producers left and started price gouging, you can be sure the reaction would be as swift and severe as it was for Enron.

That said, there is no way the oil-producing biz is going to become as concentrated as the computer operating system business anyway. There are far too many oil producers out there, scattered all over the world. In the US there are probably hundreds. No one is going to buy them all up - I'm not even sure it would be possible to do so (or, at least not very practical to try). IIRC, 60% of the oil produced in the US is produced by small and medium-sized independents. Crashing prices will no doubt create some consolidation, but there will still be plenty of others remaining.

[Newfie]

From Progressive Railroading.

2/27/2009 Traffic
Carloads, intermodal volume remain down for North American roads in week No. 7, AAR says

Seven weeks into 2009, there’s still no sign of a traffic turnaround for U.S. railroads. During the week ending Feb. 21, their carloads totaling 278,827 units dropped 14.2 percent and intermodal volume totaling 168,194 units plunged 25.3 percent compared with totals from the same week in 2008, according to the Association of American Railroads.

Through the year’s first seven weeks, U.S. railroads originated 1.9 million carloads, down 15.9 percent, and 1.3 million containers and trailers, down 15 percent year over year. Total volume remained down 14.7 percent at an estimated 201.0 billion ton-miles.

There isn’t a hint of a turnaround for Canadian railroads, either. During the week ending Feb. 21, their carloads fell 13.7 percent to 64,053 units and intermodal volume declined 15.7 percent to 38,821 units compared with totals from the same week last year. Through seven weeks, Canadian railroads reported 437,089 carloads, down 18.2 percent, and 293,412 containers and trailers, down 10.9 percent year over year.

Mexico’s two largest railroads had an off week, as well. During the period ending Feb. 21, their originated carload volume decreased 1.3 percent to 12,175 units and intermodal volume dropped 1.2 percent to 5,923 units vs. totals from 2008’s seventh week. Through seven weeks, Mexican railroads reported 75,997 carloads, down 11.3 percent, and 33,778 containers and trailers, down 16.7 percent.

On a combined North American volume basis through seven weeks, 14 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads originated 2.4 million carloads, down 16.2 percent, and 1.7 million containers and trailers, down 14.3 percent year over year.

And going back to the numbers I posted earlier I have a couple of comments
1. Note that the big differences are on a 12 month basis. Doing a comparison on a 2 year basis we are down only about 4%. So, maybe not so bad????
2. I see that Ag Products are down nearly 20%. I don't really know how they compute these figures. Is that bulk product like wheat and corn or does it include fertilizer? What about equipment like tractors and combines? If this downward trend is a reflection of lost fertilizer and seed orders then that is bad, very bad.

[Couve]

All depends on what you are looking for. Haven't been able to replace my conceal weapon as there seems to be no stock in the XD 9mm subcompact any where. My Wally Mart hasn't had handgun ammo above 22LR in more then a month although they tell me it is on order but their distribution center is out too.

[patience]

As of now, the local Wal Mart is out of several sizes of TV's and doesn't plan to order any more. Home Depot was out of the aluminum paint I wanted, and also out of certain hardware items. My local hardware store is out of several kinds of power tools and Radio Shack didn't have the 12 volt plug I wanted. A different Wal Mart was out of 3 kinds of cat food. The farm supply store was out of several tractor parts and low on paint.

When I cleaned out a checking account at one of our banks, they ran out of $100 bills. (Under $5K--not that much.)

This was only one day that I bumped into these shortages. I'd say it has started.