by patience » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 08:23:54
Timing is what counts if you want to make a buck. Buy and hold just doesn't seem to be working at present. Of course, those who guessed right in the 30's and bought gold stocks won big later on. But the majority lost their shirts. I'll go with the averages there, and stay the heck OUT of the market for the foreseeable future.
Yeah, everything changes directions, eventually. I don't know if I'll live long enough to see that, though. At least I don't want to bet on it just now. Eventually, I think all that money the FED is issuing to banks will come home to roost in the economy, and that is inflationary.
Other things are afoot at the moment, with other central banks poised to devalue, notably the UK. If/when they do that, and others also, it becomes a race to beggar thy neighbor with devaluations. For a resident of any particular country, the situation could change dramatically, and fast, with regard to the prices of imported goods. I don't see any way to predict the details of that outcome at this point.
At this time, Denninger makes a lot of sense saying to watch the bond markets. Demand for US Treasuries has dropped a bit, and with a huge US deficit looming for 2009, it does not bode well for US financing their deficit. That says interest rates will rise on US T's. Whether they "print" to fight that (by the FED buying T's with fiat or some other trick), and how much, is the key issue that Karl is pointing at now, and I agree.
In order to stay solvent through this, if that is possible, one must be right EVERY time the market changes. At this point, I'm way ahead over the past couple years listening to Karl. That could change in a heartbeat, and lose it all. We are skiiing down the backslope of Peak Oil, and there are a lot of obstacles on the route. It only takes one wipeout to do you in, but we don't have the choice to NOT participate. Scary times, indeed.
Local fix-it guy..