[shortonoil]

I don't know what planet you're shopping on, but if you go to any Earth super market and stand in the check out line, you'll hear the ladies complaining about how much food prices are increasing. I'll take their opinion anytime over some chart doddling economist.

[ernest]

Bush is cutting subsidies. And the impact on food prices does not immediately follow oil price run up. Economic cycles (lead lag rhythms) can take 1-3 years before a full impact is realized. The produce sold in today's market is substantially hedged with options/futures so that farmers can be guaranteed a steady price. Don't expect to see food prices go up for month or longer. But go up they will. Unless they find a new source other than petroleum for pesticides and fertilizer.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '%') change over the last year in the food index: -10.7
% change over the last year in West Texas Intermediate: +49.7

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'I') don't know what planet you're shopping on, but if you go to any Earth super market and stand in the check out line, you'll hear the ladies complaining about how much food prices are increasing.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's an index of food commodity prices

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JimBad05', '
')
If the government would just remove agricultural subsidies, then the third world farmers could compete and wouldn't need humanitarian assistance!!

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ernest', 'B')ush is cutting subsidies. And the impact on food prices does not immediately follow oil price run up. Economic cycles (lead lag rhythms) can take 1-3 years before a full impact is realized.

[MonteQuest]

Corn has always been historically low-priced and is roughly where it has been since World War II. In the 1940's, the U.S. crop was about 2.5 billion bushels. Since then, it has increased nearly fourfold. Since about the same amount of land is planted, this increase has been mainly due to the petroleum industry, which makes the herbicides and fertilizers that make this productivity possible, in addition to the fuel for the tractors, cultivators, harvesters, and husker-shredders. The increased productivity has, however, meant a fourfold increase in return per acre. Price stays the same, production increases, and more money is made per acre. So, this is a poor historical example to cite. You can probably make the same case for the other grain crops. The farmers take the heat on this one, always have. Increased costs and less per bushel return.

Plus, with government subsidies of $114 billion from 1995 to 2002, consumers of corn, wheat, barley, sorghum and oats are often able to buy needed commodities for below the cost of production.

Besides, do you really think the increase in energy costs to process and transport food will not be transferred to the consumer? Get real! This is troll news!

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's an index of food commodity prices

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')lus, with government subsidies of $114 billion from 1995 to 2002, consumers of corn, wheat, barley, sorghum and oats are often able to buy needed commodities for below the cost of production.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')lus, with government subsidies of $114 billion from 1995 to 2002, consumers of corn, wheat, barley, sorghum and oats are often able to buy needed commodities for below the cost of production.

[gnm]

JD is still here? I thought he was going to the moon to make solar panels and beam power back to us doomers down here!


-G

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m going to have to pay a whole $2 extra on every $100 of groceries

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'S')ustained $105 oil means a huge recession which will cost everyone more than $2 in groceries!

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')urthermore, if there's a huge recession, the price of oil will drop, and so will the price of groceries. No matter how you slice it, a shortage of oil isn't going to make food noticeably more expensive.

[Sys1]

"As you can clearly see, rising petroleum prices do not make corn more expensive."

Well, let's get to a larger scale. What you claim is right from 1975 to now. Before, it's just wrong. Let's try to figure out why : We first could imagine that USA importation before 1975 regarding food were certainly not as much developped as now. We could also think about variety of food, which probably just increased during the end of precedent century, giving more opportunities for consummers to swith to another produce when corn became too expensive. Last but not least, those prices are not inflation adjust ones, meaning that price of oil today is not as much expensive as it was in 1973.

edit : was about to forget something : did USA food habits changed since 1973? I've heard that many american people eat so much junk food that they become stout...

[rerere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Just another data point showing that higher oil prices do not translate into higher food prices.

[rerere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'Y')our theory is flawed, as you can see from the following data:

[DriveElectric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rerere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'Y')our theory is flawed, as you can see from the following data:

[FoxV]

My boss just did a business tour out in alberta. We make flow meters that are becoming very popular for water metering due to water quality and quantity issues the world over. On discussing his trip today he innocently said something that has me curious about the implications.

because of scarcity Alberta farmers must buy large amounts of water to get a half decent crop. Now another industry that's also buying up a lot of this scarce water is the oil industry, particularly those guys with old wells that pump in tonnes of water to get what little is left.

Normally this is not a big deal, but with high oil prices more and more pumpers are doing this and using ever more water to flush out smaller precentages of oil. Now consider that this scenario is probably being repeated in the US as well. That means the largest food producing region of the world has to share its irrigation water with oil producers (and I'm assuming that once water has been down an oil well it can never be used for crops).

ultimately this won't impact much on Canada and the US, but if the water usage is significant it will impact on food exports which will have a big impact on the rest of the world.

can anyone (FatherOfTwo?) expand or dismiss this.
(btw, yes I do know that Alberta is a bit flooded right now, so there is no bidding wars for water with this current oil price run up, but that will change in the future)